EPL DFS Breakdown – 1/19/19

"EPL DFS: LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – JANUARY 05: Referee Robert Madley intervenes as Mason Holgate of Everton and Roberto Firmino of Liverpool clash during the Emirates FA Cup Third Round match between Liverpool and Everton at Anfield on January 5, 2018 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)"

A warm welcome to any new readers of my EPL DFS Breakdown, and welcome back to any regular readers.  Saturday we have a full slate of 7 games, so let’s jump right in.

Out of all 14 teams playing Saturday, Liverpool are the largest favorites in a home game against Crystal Palace, followed closely by Manchester United also at home against Brighton.

Over half (4) of the games have a goal total set at 3.0, so Vegas is expecting some good goal scoring action.  There are some enticing team and game stacks that come of those high totals, but I’ll get into that later.

Of the three remaining games, Everton @ Southampton and Burnley @ Watford have an over/under at 2.5, while the over/under is only 2.0 in the massive relegation battle between Cardiff and Newcastle.

Also on this slate is a matchup of two of the big six clubs as Chelsea face off against Arsenal.  The two teams played in August when Chelsea won 3-2, so we could be in for another firecracker of a game between them as they battle for the last automatic Champions League qualification spot.

With all that out of the way, we can move on to my position-by-position EPL DFS Breakdown for Saturday.

EPL DFS Target Forwards

Marcus Rashford (Brighton @ Manchester United, $12,500) – It is not often that I write up Rashford, especially on a full slate with his streaky play.  However, the man is white hot.  Rashford has scored in three consecutive EPL games and four out of his last five.  In that five-game stretch, Rashford is averaging 30 FDP.  Rashford is definitely pricey, so he makes it tough to get stud midfielders that are more reliable.  However, that should stop you from considering him as a GPP play with a good matchup against a Brighton side that gives up 1.64 goals per game on the road.

Marko Arnautovic (West Ham United @ Bournemouth, $10,500) – The second forward I would target if you don’t like Rashford is Arnautovic.  Arnautovic gets a Bournemouth defense that is allowing 1.9 goals per game this year.  He’s been a little inconsistent since dealing with a back injury last month, but this is a good matchup for him to right the ship.

EPL DFS Value Forwards

Troy Deeney (Burnley @ Watford, $9,000) – Troy Deeney is mostly only viable on this slate because of matchups.  Burnley are conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game away from home this year which is third worst in the league.  Deeney is not a prolific goal scorer, but his matchup cannot be ignored.  Gerard Deulofeu ($8,500) is cheaper but he’s also been playing with a lower floor lately.  Burnley is last in the league at giving up shots to opposing teams, so both players should have a nice floor.  This Watford duo are some of my favorite forward value pieces.

EPL DFS – Target Midfielders

Mo Salah (Crystal Palace @ Liverpool, $12,500) – Salah is my number one target on this slate.  Playing at home, I fully expect Liverpool to light Palace up.  Crystal Palace is allowing 1.5 goals per game on the road, and Liverpool should easily surpass that average if they play like we know they can.  Salah has seven goals in his last seven EPL appearance including one hat-trick.  Yes, he’s expensive, but this is not a spot I want to fade him.  Sadio Mane ($9,500) is an expensive, but viable way to get more exposure to Liverpool’s attack.  However, Xherdan Shaqiri ($8,000) is a more economical way at achieving that especially with James Milner ($8,500) possibly playing as a defender on Saturday.

Paul Pogba (Brighton @ Manchester United, $10,500) – Pogba is the other clear top midfield option in cash games.  Pogba is now averaging 44.8 FDP over his last five EPL games which is over 4x value.  Manchester United should overmatch Brighton on Saturday.  Pogba is really the only United field player I want in cash games, and he’s a top pivot from the chalky Salah.

Ryan Fraser (West Ham United @ Bournemouth, $8,500) – The month of December was a rough one for Fraser, but he seems to be back to his good early season form so far in January.  He has 46 and 25.2 FDP in his last two EPL games including a goal, an assist, eight chances created, and four shots on goal.  West Ham’s defense is better this year, but they still allow 1.5 goals per game.  Additionally, they are letting opponents take 13 shots per game.  I would expect this game to be open and back-and-forth, allowing Fraser to accumulate many peripheral stats meaning a good floor.  There is goal and assist upside in this matchup as well.

EPL DFS – Value Midfielders

Ander Herrera (Brighton @ Manchester United, $7,500) – The value at the midfield position is really really bad given the players expected to start.  Ander Herrera is one of the safest plays below $8,000 especially given a plus matchup at home against Brighton.  Herrera should be able to collect enough peripheral stats to get us to around 3x value, which is something that is going to be tough for some of the other value midfielders on this slate.  He also has one of the best goal/assist upsides of the value MIDs.

Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (Everton @ Southampton, $7,500) – Hojbjerg is another one of the safer value MIDs on the slate.  It hasn’t been a great season for Hojbjerg, and right when he was picking up some momentum, he got a chunky 4-game suspension.  In the two games prior to his suspension, he had 22.8 and 37.8 FDP with one goal, one assist, and four shots on goal.  This is a decent matchup for Southampton at home against Everton’s leaky defense.  With the poor value MIDs on the slate, Hojbjerg gets a little emphasis, but it is a viable strategy to pay way way down for one of the guys listed below in order to get more studs.

Also like: Alex Iwobi ($7,000), Junior Stanislas ($6,000), Sean Longstaff ($4,500) solely for price

EPL DFS Target Defenders

Jose Holebas (Burnley @ Watford, $7,000) – Although crosses do not count for points on FanDuel, it’s still noteworthy that Holebas is second in the EPL in crosses this season.  This shows how important he is to Watford’s attack.  Additionally, Burnley allow sixth most crosses to opponents.  On top of that, Burnley are allowing 2.0 goals per game in away games.  All of this could add up to Holebas having plenty of opportunities on the attacking end.  Holebas had 16 FDP in the first meeting between the two teams, and I am expecting him to eclipse that this weekend.

Luke Shaw (Brighton @ Manchester United, $5,500) – Even after a productive 22.3 FDP game last weekend, Luke Shaw is still slightly underpriced.  Shaw has some decent attacking upside, and with United likely to control a ton of the ball in this game, we could see that upside out of Shaw.

Also like: Lucas Digne

EPL DFS – Value Defenders

Sead Kolasinac (Chelsea @ Arsenal, $5,000) – This is surprisingly the first player I am writing up in this game.  The first time these two teams played, it was an action-packed game which usually leads to lots of peripheral stats all around.  This weekend’s game looks like it could be a repeat of the first meeting, so I want to get some exposure.  Kolasinac is a cheap way to do that.

Also like: Jannik Vestergaard ($5,000), Florian Lejeune ($4,500)

EPL DFS Goalkeepers

Alisson (Crystal Palace @ Liverpool, $6,500) – Without considering cost, Alisson is the clear top dog among goalkeepers on this slate.  Liverpool rarely concede goals at home and Crystal Palace have struggled to score this season with only 20 goals in 22 games.  If you have the salary, lock him in.

Ben Foster (Burnley @ Watford, $4,500) – Foster is a solid GPP play on this slate with an affordable salary as well.  Burnley have only scored nine goals in 11 away games this year, so both the win and clean sheet bonuses are attainable for him.  Watford, however, isn’t great at defending even at home so there is risk associated with this play.

Also like: David de Gea ($6,000)

Thanks everyone for reading my EPL DFS Breakdown again!  As always, I’ll be available on Twitter before the slate locks with all the last-minute information you need to win.