Welcome into the Friday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We’re back after a one day hiatus and tonight brings a very intriguing seven game slate in the NBA.
I’ll be honest, every slate without James Harden feels like kind of a letdown at this point. I want to see what he’ll do next, but we do have some great players to pick from tonight. Four of the games are under a 220 total and we know that the late night hammer games are going to be popular. It’s hard not to be when virtually every big name is on the slate doesn’t tip until 10 PM Eastern time and those two games are the only two with totals over 230. The Warriors once again find themselves in a game with a spread under seven points and the highest total on the slate by a large amount, so we know what to do with that game. Let’s get into the rest of our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – DJ Augustin, Magic
This likely seems out-of-place give that we have our choice of Damian Lillard and Steph Curry tonight. However, both are expensive and I don’t want to just rite up the highest priced option at each spot. That’s truly not helpful, and I would play Curry anyways. If you go that route and want to par him with a cheaper guard on FanDuel, Augustin is your man tonight.
Augustin is about as exciting as toast with no butter, jelly or cinnamon sugar. Who actually eats that stuff? He’s a boring player with an 18.1 usage rate and 0.81 FPPM, which is very average. However, he always plays solid minutes and gets a good matchup against the Nets. They are not better than average to point guards, and that’s really all Augustin needs. I wouldn’t expect 40 fantasy points but he comes cheap in a very solid spot. If he’s the piece that lets me play other studs, I’m 100 percent on board.
Honorable Mention – Steph Curry, Warriors
Fade – Spencer Dinwiddie, Nets
He might have been part of my highest score on DK ever, but I’m not chasing Dinwiddie tonight. The matchup isn’t all that great to start with and this certainly screams outlier performance from all angles. For starters, he played just 33 minutes in an overtime game. That would suggest that he wouldn’t have gotten any extra run during regulation. Although the Nets have been pretty good overall in real life, their rotations for fantasy purposes have been headache-inducing all season long.
This explosion really came out of nowhere. Dinwiddie hadn’t been above 20 real points or 30 fantasy points since December 26 before hewn off in Houston. If he only gets another 26 minutes, he’s got to be cray efficient to have a good game. With players like Dinwiddie, it’s usually not the best idea to try to get him right twice in a row.
Honorable Mention – Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – Kyle Korver, Cavaliers
We’re sticking with the value to start off because I want to find a way to get a part of a Jazz team that is favored by 15 points at a reasonable total. However, I also don’t really want to spend up to Rudy Gobert or Donovan Mitchell. They’re both going to be great plays…for three quarters while they’re on the floor. Cleveland will now be without Tristan Thompson, which is part of the reason the spread is the largest on the slate. Korver might be a really great way to get into this game while having to spend very little of your salary.
On the season, Korver is attempting almost five three pointers a game and has now seen an increase in his minutes since the Jazz are shorthanded. The 15 year veteran has been around the block but he can still shoot the three at a 44 percent clip. Cleveland gives up the highest field goal percentage on three’s in the association and Korver has been over 20 DK for three games straight. He’s also shot 24 three pointers in that time frame so we know what he’s on the court to do. I think he makes it four here and is a very solid way to save and get a part of Utah.
Honorable Mention – Jrue Holiday, Pelicans
Fade – Andrew Wiggins, Wolves
Earlier on I mentioned how boring for fantasy DJ Augustin was with his 0.81 FPPM mark. That’s not going to get you too excited and it shouldn’t. So why pay $1,200 more on DK and $1,700 more on FD for a player that averages 0.89 FPPM on the season despite a usage rate of 26.5 percent? Sure, the ceiling is higher and it always makes sense to play Wiggins in GPP in case he scores 40 real points. The issue is that happens so infrequently, you’re usually left with a bad investment and you can’t afford to make mistakes in NBA this year.
The matchup doesn’t stand out either. The Spurs give up under 21 real points to shooting guards on average, so even if Wiggins can manage 24 real points, that probably caps his fantasy points at about 30. If he scores the season average in real points, you’re not getting near enough value from him unless he has a major outlier game tonight for peripheral stats.
Honorable Mention – D’Angelo Russell, Nets
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Nikola Mirotic, Pelicans
* Note – Mirotic is SF on FD only, but I still believe he’s a strong play on DK as well
The last time I tried to peg Mirotic, he was positively dreadful. I’m not using him and expecting a monster 29 real point performance like last game but I do think he’s a great way to get into those late games. We’ve been using wing style players against Portland all season because it’s something they just don’t defend well. If Mirotic is getting back into the swing of things after scoring zero real points the game before, the price is simply too low.
On the season, Portland is giving up the fourth most DK points, third most real points and third most rebounds to the position. Mirotic is seeing his normal allotment of minutes once again, back up to about 29 this past game. We also want a lot from these late games, and Miro is a great(and cheap) way to get there in one of the better individual matchups on the board. 36 DK points would basically be 6x and that’s very reasonable for someone who has a seasonal mark of 1.13 FPPM.
Honorable Mention – Justise Winslow, Heat
Fade – Josh Richardson, Heat
It was a little surprising Richardson even played this past game. He was listed as questionable with a knee injury and I don’t think his poor game was the result of just the whooping Milwaukee put on the Heat. It’s easy to envision a scenario where the knee issue is bothering Richardson more than he will say, but at just 25 minutes like last game, his price would be far too high.
Without confirmation about the minutes or how his knee is doing, Richardson is a ver scary play tonight. Even on FanDuel where you can drop the low score, it’s not ideal to play a player that cost so much with any risk of dropping. Over the past two weeks, Richardson has dropped to 0.86 FPPM and that is paltry at best. The Pistons give up the least DK and real points to small forwards, which paints Richardson as a fairly easy fade in my mind at this point.
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – Draymond Green, Warriors
I’m pretty sure Green just scored another fantasy point and the Pelicans game ended about 25 hours ago. Seriously, the man was everywhere against New Orleans and the best times to target Green is in great pace games where he can have a lot of opportunities to fill up the stat sheet. He should get that tonight in a game with the best total and a Clippers team that is top 10 in pace in the NBA.
One thing you notice when looking at Green’s game log is the assists these past few games. He’s racked up 58 in the past six games alone and while his real points have been shaky this season(lowest in the past five seasons), the rebounds are his best in three seasons and the assist ratio would be by far the best of his career. The Clippers give up about 22 real points a game to power forwards but also are the seventh worst team overall. Green should be able to put together back to back big time lines tonight.
Honorable Mention – Al-Farouq Aminu, Blazers
Fade – LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs
This matchup is pretty interesting because Aldridge actually averages more paint touches than Karl Anthony-Towns. Maybe he can do some work from the paint but I tend to think KAT is going to give Aldridge some issues in this one. The Wolves are 11th best against centers, which is more the style of Aldridge at this point and Towns should have the advantage as far as athleticism.
If we look at the in the paint numbers, Minnesota is in the top half of the league in paint points and rebounds given up this season. When there’s not a screaming advantage for Aldridge, I’ve tended to stay away. There have been games where that’s burned me but I’ve also come out on the right side of it as well. The other issue that hurts him is he’s more expensive on both sites than some of these late night hammers, and even in tournament settings I’d have a hard time spending more on LMA than one of those options.
Honorable Mention – Anthony Davis, Pelicans(not because I think he’ll have a bad game but he’s so pricey, especially on FD)
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Nikola Vucevic, Magic
If you’ve played fantasy basketball this season, odds are you already know that you play big men against Brooklyn. It’s basically a rule of science and physics that when you have a big man capable of dominating the paint especially, he gets played against Brooklyn. They are the far and away worst team against centers while Vucevic is enjoying career high water marks in scoring, rebounds and assists per game.
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The Nets are in the bottom 10 in the NBA in paint points and rebounds given up while Vucevic is top 15 in paint touches, top 12 in paint points per game and top 16 in rebounding opportunities per game. With an average of 1.44 FPPM through the season and the juiciest matchup his position gets, it’s very difficult not to love Vucevic tonight. It’s more about finding some value plays like Augustin and Korver that let you play late night pieces and the Orlando center early.
Honorable Mention – Jusuf Nurkic, Blazers
Fade – DeMarcus Cousins, Warriors
This pick might cause a ruckus in the CPR chat, but let me lay out some reasons. First, I’m more willing to play Boogie on FD than I am DK. He’s making his return from a torn Achilles tendon, which is a notoriously tough injury to come back from. Although Steve Kerr has said he’ll play in shorter spurts, there’s not much clarity as to what the total will be. The best guess is between 15-20, and that leaves him in dicey territory. FD he’s only $1,100 above minimum and he can be dropped if it goes poorly. On DK, he’s $5,500 and needs to hit 33 DK points to get to value. That’s an awful lot to ask for a player that might play 20 minutes.
I will admit the spot looks great. The Clippers are very weak in the paint and maybe the Warriors just feed him inside to get him back in the flow. The opposite can also happen and it might need to take a few weeks to get the big man involved. This is a new dynamic to an offense that has been together since Kevin Durant came on board two full seasons ago. The transition might not happen in the first game. I’m exercising caution, but will have at least a little bit on the evening.
Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert, Jazz – price and blowout concerns
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