NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday January 18 – Boogie Shoes
Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Thursday’s NBA DFS slate was essentially the standard slate in terms of scores with winning GPP’s right at 350 (3.5x value) and the cash line right at or just above 300 (3x value). For those who stacked the Thunder/Lakers, it was likely a decent start to your build as Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Kyle Kuzma were three of the top four performers on the night with 55 fantasy points+ each.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Friday Slate Overview – It’s time to Boogie!
As an NBA fan, I am so excited for tonight’s action and really cannot wait to see how the Golden State Warriors look with DeMarcus Cousins on the floor. Listen, he will likely be limited tonight in a “get your feet wet” kind of game for him after such a lengthy rehab process, but there is no question that his introduction into this Warriors unit is going to be one of the most interesting NBA story lines for the rest of the regular season.
I do think as we go on, the fact that Boogie is a notorious usage monster will adversely effect the value of the other Warriors stars but that is something we should watch go forward and I do not think it is an issue in tonight’s game.
Speaking of tonight’s game, this is the clear marquis spot on the slate – a massive 241 total, a close spread and the fastest projected pace on the slate – basically, you better find a way to get exposure to this Warriors/Clippers game.
These two teams have played against each other twice already this season, with the most recent game on December 23 being the game log we should really use as a baseline as Steph Curry missed the first game back in November.
Kevin Durant ($17.8K) and Steph Curry ($17.7K) went for 68 and 58 fantasy points in that 129-127 shootout just before Christmas while Draymond Green ($12.8K) added 40 of his own on the back of 5 steals. Klay Thompson ($12K) was held to only 20 fantasy points as a result of shooting just 4-15 in that game but he as been absolutely chucking lately with 17, 18, 19, 25 and 29 shot attempts in his last five games.
Normally, I would pick 1-2 guys from Golden State – usually either go with KD/Curry OR pay down and get my exposure with the cheaper Klay and/or Draymond. Tonight though, in this match-up – I think you can make the argument to play 3-4 of them. I would personally avoid the fringe plays like Kevon Looney with Boogie back and taking some, albeit likely small minutes tonight, and focus on the core four here.
I am sure you can make the argument that all the Warriors rarely get there in the same game, and that is fair, but we saw in the last game against New Orleans where KD (63), Steph (57), Draymond (52), Klay (33) and even Looney (30) all got you big nights and paid off their salary.
My perspective – start here and work backwards – if you don’t go overweight on this game, you are going to get crushed by the late night hammer.
NBA DFS – Run it back with the Clippers:
If you are going overweight on the Warriors side of this game, especially with their ability to go off offensively, I think you almost need to find a way to run it back with some Clippers pieces in the hope this game stays close.
The tricky part with the Clippers is this is a deep team that all seems fairly priced and really, none of these players have that “can’t miss” ceiling – think about it, sure they are loaded with guys who are good for 30-40 fantasy points but how many slates have they had even one guy that you just HAD to have to win?
Looking at this season – here are the number of times each core Clipper has gone for 50+:
- Tobias Harris ($13K) – 4 times
- Lou Williams ($13K) – 2 times
- Montrezl Harrell ($13.6K) – 2 times
- Danilo Gallinari ($12.4K) – 1 time
Let me be clear – I like all of these guys tonight – they are all firmly in the player pool – they have all even had success in this same match-up with Lou Williams going for 40+ both times and all the other three getting between 43-48 fantasy points in one of the two meetings.
But that is the rub for me – as much as I like them, I question how much ceiling and profit is really left at these price points. If you asked me to choose, I would probably put Lou Williams first, as a guy who has been a consistent producer in this match-up with Klay Thompson chasing him around and his ability to get you 3x seems like a likely outcome.
Because of the limited ceiling – I would be far more inclined, if you are stacking this game, to go with 3-4 Warriors and only 1-2 Clippers – my thinking is simply that the Warriors have the ceiling that the Clippers core does not.
As an example – you can stack – KD/Curry/Klay/Draymond and run it back with Lou Williams/Tobias and you would have $6.8K per player for the last two spots on your roster. I think that is a viable route assuming we can find the right value for our last two men in.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays and Value:
Let’s circle back quickly and think through how we find the value to fill out a Warriors/Clippers stack with the context that we have just under $7K per player remaining for the last two spots in our build.
The free square of the night will likely be Ante Zizic ($7.6K) even with a tough match-up against the Jazz – this is simply a matter of attrition as the Cavaliers will be without Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson AND Larry Nance Jr. This is one of those free square chalk plays you just eat and move on – at this price point, he needs 23 fantasy points just to hit value and this is a player who has gone for 31 and 32 fantasy points in two of his last three games – in games where Thompson actually played. I am not going to get cute here – you can plug him into your GS/LA game stack with ease or frankly within any build you come up with.
If you are looking for pivots off the big total Warriors/Clippers game – the Pelicans/Blazers games is the clear second choice with an equally impressive 233 total and nearly the same projected pace. Anthony Davis ($20.4K) is the only player over $20K tonight and could actually end up as a nice contrarian target if most opt to prioritize the Warriors stars at cheaper prices. An AD – Damian Lillard mini-stack could be a nice way to differentiate from the field.
The game I have my eye on for GPP’s though is the Magic-Nets, a game with a solid 216 total in the first meeting of these two teams this season.
Nikola Vucevic ($17.3K) will likely be a popular play on DFS sites where you have roster restrictions but on FantasyDraft where you have the most flexibility, will people really look to take him over KD/Curry who sit at similar price points?
Vuc put up 50 and 63 fantasy points in two of his three games against the Nets last season and we all know Centers Versus Brooklyn is a thing. The issue with Vuc, much like how I felt with the Clippers – is how much profit is REALLY left at this price?
Vic has given us two 70+ point outings this year so the ceiling is obviously there, but at this price point he needs 50+ just to pay off salary and although he has done that 9 times this year, he has only gone for that much in 2 of his last 10 games. The path to 50+ seems much more clear for the Warriors stars but if Vuc is going to get ignored on FantasyDraft specifically, there is a great argument for him as a GPP play.
If you opt to go this route – D’Angelo Russell ($13.7K) is the obvious run back option in my mind, regardless of the random Spencer Dinwiddie blowup last game for Brooklyn. The fact that Russell is more expensive than any of the Warriors/Clippers not named KD/Durant makes him GPP only for me in a pace down spot but the price point and his ceiling make him an intriguing GPP pivot.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this is a sample lineup meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play lineup.
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G: Klay Thompson
G: Lou Williams
F/C: Kevin Durant
F/C: Draymond Green
F/C: Tobias Harris
UTIL: Ante Zizic
UTIL: $6.2K player or below
Slate Overview – Listen, there are seven games on this slate and I think you can make arguments for tournament pivots but to me, it makes the most sense to take the clear path and that is Clippers/Warriors.
One of the reasons I write Picks and Pivots with a sample lineup is because giving you picks without lineup construction I think is unhelpful. Obviously all the players in this game are great but without showing you HOW you can stack this game, you are simply clicking names and you will likely end up with not enough salary.
So make it simple – 4 Warriors, 2 Clippers, a little ANTE UP and find yourself a last man in punt and just wait until the late night hammer drops.
I am sure some crazy news will drop during the day – maybe players get ruled out and then in like Kyle Lowry last night, but maybe we just play this one straight up – take the best game with multiple elite plays and ignore the noise. Sometimes, it’s better that way. Enjoy this slate all – get on those Boogie shoes!
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