NFL DFS Best Plays To Win – Championship Weekend Update

Good day and greetings from your NFL DFS best plays to win host and avid player.  What a difference a day makes – are you kidding me?

How ’bout them weather forecasts.  What was expected to be below zero wind chill factors at game time in Kansas City will now arrive a day early.  Had this game been played Saturday night, winds would be out of the north at upwards of 20 mph, a temperature of 15 degrees with a wind chill below zero.Now, however, the updated forecast has the game time temperature on Sunday projected to be 29 with winds out of the south at only 6 mph which changes our NFL DFS Best Plays outlook.

This back and forth in the forecast has played havoc with the total, opening at 59.5, dropping to 54 and now rebounding to 56.  As long as the forecast doesn’t digress, I would expect the total to rise above 57 by game time.

This development changes the outlook for the passing game and I believe will up the value of both quarterbacks, especially Mahomes.  The Patriot rush defense has been better than their secondary this season and especially better than the fantasy points allowed to QB’s.

The current weather outlook will not slow down Mahomes at all.  I think it dramatically changes our fantasy outlook for the game.

Looking at the 2 game slate, I still favor targeting the Saints core position players.  As of Friday night, 54% of all public bets are on the Rams +3.  I think the majority here will be disappointed.  In particular I think the Saints defense will play extremely tough and limit all Rams fantasy expectations.

Goff had a bad day fantasy wise in his team’s divisional weekend win accumulating just 8.8 DraftKings points and I expect more of the same this Sunday, with some turnovers as well.  Let’s take a look at the core position players for the Saints and project their fantasy worth.

NFL DFS Best Plays To Win – Saints Powerhouse Three

We are going to review the Saints 3 best position players, who are obvious, but the strategy question is how are we going to use them in conjunction with the players in the Pats/Chiefs game.  I will be mixing and matching these 3 roster giants but will not be running back with any Rams.

I guarantee you I will be the only NFL fantasy player not to have any Rams in their lineups.  Instead I will be using the Saints DST (defense) to augment what I believe will be huge fantasy numbers posted by 2 if not all 3 of the following players:

Drew Brees ($5900), QB New Orleans
On what seemed like a listless offense last week against the Eagles, Brees picked up over 22 DraftKings points while achieving the 300+ yards bonus and tossing 2 TD’s.  This week he should find the going a little easier.

Firstly I don’t care for the defensive mixes the Rams present.  There are too many unfilled gaps and it shows in the stats, as the Rams rank 27th against the wide receiver position this season.

Secondly I don’t think the Rams are going to fare well moving the ball, which will give more opportunities for the Saints offense.  The raw number of drives the Saints will have is a big consideration and will have a major impact on fantasy points earned.

Michael Thomas ($8200), WR New Orleans
Last week’s stats – 12 receptions on 16 targets, 171 yards with 1 TD earning over 38 DraftKings points.  That’s with the Eagles defense geared specifically to stop him.  He comes with a 42 projected ceiling but also shows a low floor so mix and match.

Alvin Kamara ($6500), RB New Orleans
He has taken over Mark Ingram as the clear RB1 and his fantasy value rests on the TD’s he scores.  He has surpassed the 100 yard rushing mark in only 1 game this season, yet is a top fantasy producer as he is used heavily in the red zone.

Additional Fantasy Focus Points:

Ted Ginn Jr ($4300), WR New Orleans
Well worth his salary here as he has been targeted 15 times the last 2 games and Brees will need him as an outlet if the Rams double Thomas.

Mark Ingram ($4600), RB New Orleans
He did have 9 carries last week compared to 16 for Kamara, so he is not forgotten by any means.  He will need a better yards per carry effort and needs to score which is not out of the question.  A dart throw on him is warranted.

Now let’s examine the late Sunday game:

NFL DFS Best Plays To Win – Weather Permitting

The dramatic change in the weather forecast from sub-zero wind chills to 29 degrees with a southerly wind changes the game flow and puts the quarterbacks right in the mix again.

It’s true Mahomes lowest producing games have been in the coldest weather, and 29 degrees is not balmy, but it’s a long way away from the original forecast.  So let’s examine the season long averages posted by the main position players from both teams on DraftKings.

Listed is the player and the average fantasy points per game.

The top 4, all KC Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes, 28.2
Damien Williams, 25.4 (from week 15, his first 10 carry game)
Tyreek Hill, 22.2
Travis Kelce, 19.5

The Next 4, all Patriots

Tom Brady, 19.4
Julian Edelman, 18.6
James White, 17.7
Sony Michel, 13.4

As far as DST goes they are about equal on the season, with New England averaging 8.5 and Kansas City earning 8.3.  Last week when both teams were at home, the Chiefs out-produced the Pats 9-5 on DST.

Originally when the bitter cold was expected I thought Mahomes would be hampered enough to swing this in New England’s favor, but not now, at least not for me.  These stats tell too big a story and they are based on neutral field results, with season long splits home and away.

My strategy is going to be to prioritize my fantasy lineups in this order:

1. New Orleans Saints

2. Kansas City Chiefs

3. New England Patriots

That’s it.  I am still not going to roster any Rams, not even Todd Gurley.  I want to save as much salary as I can for my main focus points.  Anyone following me, I hope this advice is strong.  The final lineup decision is yours, and I know how odd this seems, but that’s how I’m playing it.

Lastly, let’s look at these possible salary savers:

NFL DFS Best Plays To Win – Give Me A (Salary) Break!

I need to say here, I’m not super eager about any bargain basement players this week.  The distribution has been tightly contained and it will be hard to fit in a great sleeper.  However salary must be saved somewhere so here are some under the radar players that stand a chance of earning their salary and more.

Ted Ginn Jr. ($4300), WR New Orleans
This is the one sleeper I like, and we mentioned him earlier.  He can have a big day if luck breaks his way and he records a TD or two.

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Tre’Quan Smith ($3600), WR New Orleans
He did have a 34.7 DraftKings point outing in week 11 against Philadelphia.  Most weeks have been sparse.

Dan Arnold ($2500), TE New Orleans
Now that top TE Ben Watson has been ruled out,  Arnold will get some reps along with Josh Hill.  But this still looks like a real longshot roster.

Rob Gronkowski ($4100), TE New England
His cost makes him a sleeper, and he has been very quiet the last 4 weeks, but we all know what he can do.  Five weeks ago he produced 27.7 DraftKings points – 8 receptions on 8 targets, 107 yards and a TD.

Sammy Watkins ($4000), WR Kansas City
He’s a viable salary saver being targeted 8 times last week coming back from missing 7 weeks due to injury.  At home in week 8 he provided 33.7 DraftKings points on a similar salary of $4600.

Spencer Ware ($4200), RB Kansas City
Now RB2 behind the clear RB1 Damien Williams, he still will get some snaps and hey – you never know.  It would be unlikely but still possible for him to have a very good day.

As a recap, I am picking the Saints to beat the Rams easily and in so doing nullify and Rams fantasy rosters, and I believe the Chiefs and Patriots will have an aggressive high scoring game.

Good Luck To Us!