Yahoo NFL DFS –  Daily Fantasy Football: Week Twenty

Rizzla discusses his week week twenty Yahoo NFL DFS Daily Fantasy Football: NFL Champion of Champions Daily Fantasy Football lineup.

Yahoo NFL DFS –  Daily Fantasy Football: Week Twenty

After a wild divisional round only 21 points separate 1st and 25th presenting an opportunity for those farther back in the pack to gain some ground and finish in the money with a big Daily Fantasy Football week.

Yahoo’s Champion of Champions contest rolls into round three and now is the time to close the gap. Anyone who opted for a Chargers stack this past weekend likely ‘shot themselves in the foot’ so to speak and are likely plotting ways to dig their way out of the Anthony Lynn sized hole they are in.

As always I like to start by reflecting our my previous weeks lineup and learning from my biggest mistakes. Last week my most egregious blunders were Hunter Henry, Melvin Gordon and the Los Angeles Chargers defense.

Hunter Henry was a major disappointment as he saw only fourteen total snaps and one target on the day. I am not certain what possessed the Chargers to activate Henry if they did not think he was healthy enough to feature.

Perhaps they thought the Patriots were following Stephen A. Smith’s scouting reports. Players coming off of injuries are always big risks, a risk that only increases with players who have been injured the entire season. This is something I will take measures to be more aware of going forward as both Antonio Gates and Virgil Green found the end zone in this contest.

Melvin Gordon, like the entire Chargers ground attack, was shut down this past weekend. While Gordon is one of the more talented and versatile running backs in the league he was held to 26 total yards and only managed 9.10 fantasy points thanks to his trip to the end zone.

Gordon is not a player I expected to fall victim to a negative game script as he is a plus and the passing game but the Patriots did a good job of shutting him down. It is always a risk plugging in a running back for the team Vegas pegs as the underdog but in this case I mistakenly believed that the Chargers could cover and be competitive in both the running and passing games.

Plugging in the Los Angeles Chargers defense for the divisional round proved to be my biggest mistake of the year. Negative four points is part of the reason I do not commish leagues with any kickers or defense and decline to do weekly rankings for either.

If I could I would just punt defenses for some playoff weekends but with that not an option I commonly opt for what looks like the strongest defense, starting with the D-Line and ending with the linebackers.

The lessons learned here included confirming that some weeks there may be a severe lack of appealing options, especially in the smaller playoff slates. The other lesson was not to ignore linebacker strength when your defensive pick is playing a team that makes its living from the inside out with an express focus on exploiting linebacker mismatches.

For this week’s NFL Champion of Champions free roll I went with my usual strategy of filling defense, tight end and quarterback first by identifying the best potential values and then doing the same for both running back and receiver.

Tom Brady ($30 Salary; 3rd salary rank; 2nd personal rank)

Tom Brady has a mouth watering matchup this weekend against a Kansas City Chiefs defense allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs surrendered 295.1 passing yards and 1.9 touchdowns to the quarterback position on the season giving Brady solid upside despite what will likely start out as a ground heavy gameplan.

Brady put up a solid 21.8 fantasy points when the two teams met earlier this season, putting up 340 yards with one passing touchdown and one more on the ground. With the Chiefs expected to play better at home the Patriots could and should be forced to air it out giving Brady significant fantasy upside. Start Brady where needed.

Sony Michel ($20 Salary; 4th salary rank; 3rd personal rank)

Sony Michel looks to have a plus plus matchup this weekend against a Kansas City Chiefs defense allowing the third most fantasy points to enemy backs. Surrendering 113.5 rushing yards and 0.9 touchdowns to the running back position on the season, the Chiefs may have a hard time slowing down Michel.

Sony Michel had his best game of the fantasy season against the Chiefs, and recorded his only multi touchdown game before last week’s dazzling performance. Michel had 22.6 fantasy points from 106 rushing yards and two touchdowns and could have similar success with the Patriots certain to be looking to establish the run and control the clock. Fire Michel up as a high upside play.

Damien Williams ($19 Salary; 6th salary rank; 1st personal rank)

Damien Williams has been a DFS asset and that should not change this weekend despite squaring off against a New England Patriots defense allowing the eleventh fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.

The Patriots gave up 94.3 rushing yards, 5.6 receptions, 48.9 receiving yards to the running back position giving Williams solid upside in what should be a 15-20 touch game. While Williams is not a back at the same talent level as Kareem Hunt, he has proven to be a rock solid fit for Andy Reid’s offense and should see at least 120 yards from scrimmage and a score.

Kareem Hunt posted 185 yfs and a touchdown against the Pats in week six suggesting Williams could be in line for a big day both on the ground and through the air.

Julian Edelman ($21 Salary; 3rd salary rank; 4th personal rank)

Julian Edelman has a solid matchup this weekend against a Kansas City Chiefs defense surrendering the fifteenth most fantasy points to enemy wideouts. Edelman has a solid floor this weekend as he is coming off a monster game and is going up against a Chiefs squad who has allowed 14.7 receptions, 172.4 yards and 0.9 touchdowns to the wide receiver position on the season.

Edelman has a tougher matchup against a good corner in Kendall Fuller this weekend but should still have a strong day. Fuller has somewhat surprisingly relinquished a 68.6 percent catch rate and a 97.4 passer rating against giving Edelman the potential for a monster day.

Edelman had a solid outing against the Chiefs in week six posting 14.1 daily fantasy football points off of four receptions, 54 yards and a touchdown and should be in line for a much bigger outing this weekend. Start Edelman where possible.

Tyreek Hill ($34 Salary; 1st salary rank; 2nd personal rank)

Tyreek Hill has a great matchup this weekend despite facing off against a New England Patriots defense giving up the twelfth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Pats have allowed 12.8 receptions, 149.9 yards and a touchdown per game to the wide receiver position and could have trouble slowing Hill down, especially if they choose to focus on Travis Kelce again.

The Chiefs do a great job of scheming Tyreek Hill into space and he will be a focal point of the quick hit game they employ to slow down the Patriots pass rush. Hill has a plus matchup this weekend against Jason McCourty who has held opponents to a 58.6 percent catch rate but a 90.3 passer rating against.

McCourty is a fine corner with good speed but he will have a hard time defending Hill on deep shots and horizontal routes as he will be dealing with one of the more elusive players at his position as well as a receiver who has him beat in the speed department.

Tyreek Hill absolutely destroyed the Patriots earlier this season scoring 35.7 daily fantasy football points off of seven receptions, 142 yards and three touchdowns and should be in line for another monster day in what is likely to turn into another scoring bonanza.

Robert Woods ($21 Salary; 4th salary rank; 3rd personal rank)

Robert Woods looks to have a treat of a matchup this weekend against a New Orleans Saints defense relinquishing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Saints have allowed 15.2 receptions, 209.1 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position on the season giving Woods what looks like a very comfortable floor this weekend.

Even though I do not trust Jared Goff at this point in the season Woods looks to have a cake matchup against Saints slot corner P.J. Williams. Williams has allowed a 65.5 percent catch rate and a 99.2 passer rating against giving Woods palpable upside this weekend.

Robert Woods had a solid outing against the Saints in week nine with 10 daily fantasy football points off of five receptions for 71 yards. Woods saw a healthy nine targets and could be in line for a similar workload this weekend with Brandin Cooks likely to see a lot of Marshon Lattimore. Roll with Woods if you are looking for a high floor receiver for this weekends contest.

Travis Kelce ($27 Salary; 1st salary rank; 1st personal rank)

Travis Kelce has a plus matchup this weekend against a New England Patriots defense allowing the fifteenth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Patriots gave up 4.4 receptions, 52 yards and 0.5 touchdowns to the tight end position during the regular season signalling what Kelce’s floor should be this weekend.

Kelce had one of his rougher outings of the season against the Patriots as he managed just 61 yards off of five receptions for 8.6 daily fantasy football points. Kelce dealt with constant double teams in the contest but that allowed his running mate to run wild in his stead.

Kelce should be in line for a bigger day this weekend with the Patriots likely to direct some of their attention to making sure Hill does not go bonkers again. Kelce is the strongest play at his position in a weekend that it is hard to trust any other player at tight end. Roll with Kelce where possible.

Phillip Dorsett ($12 Salary; 9th salary rank; 12th personal rank)

Phillip Dorsett has what looks like an upside matchup this weekend against a Kansas City Chiefs defense surrendering the fifteenth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Chiefs have allowed 12.8 receptions, 149.9 yards and a touchdown per game to the wide receiver position on the season giving Dorsett the solid upside mentioned above.

Functioning as the Patriots third receiver Dorsett saw 46 percent of the offensive snaps during the divisional round and will see work in the majority of the three wide sets the Pats run this weekend. Dorsett has the misfortune of being slated to do battle against a surprisingly tough cornerback in Steven Nelson.

Nelson has held opponents to a sparkling 55.6 catch rate and an even better 79.1 passer rating against meaning that Dorsett will need to make a splash play or two to register on the daily fantasy football radar. Admittedly a flier pick I chose to round out my roster, Dorsett could have a big day in what could turn into a high scoring affair.

New Orleans Saints ($16 Salary)

The New Orleans Saints have a tough match-up this weekend against a Los Angeles Rams offense allowing the third fewest fantasy points to opposing defensive units. The Saints hurt daily owners with negative two points when they met the Rams earlier in the season and could bring more agony if this game morphs into another shootout.

The Saints have been rock solid from a fantasy context since that time as they are averaging 8.2 fantasy points since their week nine meeting. The Saints managed only one interception with zero sacks against Jared Goff the last time out but that was against a better version of Goff.

Goff has been picked and sacked five times in his last three contests against teams that made the playoffs, and the Rams could be in for a world of hurt in Goff is forced to play in catch-up mode.

Goff’s play has fallen precipitously since his hot first half to the season and saw his numbers dip to an 82.7 QBR (from 116.7), 7.4 yards per attempt (from 9.0), 243.9 passing yards per game (from 342.1) and a 10:9  touchdown to interception line (from a 22:9 first half) over his last eight regular season contests.

I honestly do not like any defense this week and would be completely punt them if possible as they could all submit zeros or negative scores. With that said if I had to bet against one quarterback this weekend, it is definitely Jared Goff.