EPL DFS Breakdown – Sunday 1/20/19

Welcome to the Sunday edition of my EPL DFS Breakdown.  I hope you all had a profitable Saturday slate, but if you didn’t hopefully I can help you get back on track. 

We’re facing a pretty standard EPL DFS Sunday 2-game slate that features two of the big six clubs.  In the early game, 2nd place Manchester City travel to Huddersfield and in the late game 3rd place Tottenham travel to Fulham.

The Vegas information isn’t super important for this slate.  But if you’re curious, Manchester City are massive 2.5 goal favorites, while Tottenham is only favored by 0.5 a goal.  The goal total is 3.0 for City at Huddersfield and 2.5 for Tottenham at Fulham.

More important than Vegas news on this slate, is injury news.  This week Tottenham dropped this bomb on us about star striker Harry Kane:

With Kane out and Lucas Moura having only just started his on-field training, it could be up to Fernando Llorente to lead Tottenham’s attack.  Lots of eyes will be on how Tottenham decide to line up Sunday morning.

It appears that Sergio Aguero is back to 100% which should move Gabriel Jesus back to the bench which is unfortunate for him given his recent success.  This is what manager Pep Guardiola had to say about the decision on Friday:

https://twitter.com/ManCity/status/1086273605774716928

Take what you want from that statement…anyways since this is a small slate, I’ll be doing by EPL DFS Breakdown in a team-by-team fashion.

EPL DFS – Huddersfield

Huddersfield are last in the EPL in goals scored this season with only 13 in 22 games (that’s a 0.6 average…woof).  This is partly due to the inability of their strikers Steve Mounie ($8,500) and Elias Kachunga ($6,500) to put the ball in the net.  They can be ignored on this slate against a Manchester City side that will control this game.

The Huddersfield midfielders are not any more attractive in this matchup.  However, for the price, I would be willing to take a risk on Jason Puncheon ($4,500) who just joined the squad on loan.  His salary will help you get studs which is of upmost importance on smaller slates.

All Huddersfield defenders, and GK Jonas Lossl ($4,500), are all off my radar.

EPL DFS – Manchester City

I am definitely interested in whichever Manchester City striker is given the start.  Sergio Aguero ($12,000) is one of the most potent goal scorers in the league, and Gabriel Jesus ($12,000) is in great form.  If they both start, I might even be tempted into playing both with no other elite strikers available.

Raheem Sterling ($11,000) has been one of my cash game favorites this year, but he’s in a bit of a cold streak with no goals and only one assist in his last five.  Until he starts to produce, I don’t think I’m willing to pay that much for him.  I would rather save money and pay for Leroy Sane ($10,000) or David Silva ($9,000) against a Huddersfield team that gives up an average of 1.7 goals per game.  Bernardo Silva ($8,500) continues to be pretty cheap for his recent fantasy floor and is likely someone I will use on Sunday.

None of City’s defenders are that appealing from a fantasy perspective, but if you wanted that exposure I would lean towards Danilo ($5,000).  Manchester City GK Ederson ($6,000) is probably the safest GK on the slate.  A win bonus looks probable and with Huddersfield only having 13 goals in 22 games this season, a clean sheet is in the works as well.

EPL DFS Fulham

Aleksandar Mitrovic ($11,000) is a risky, GPP-only pivot off Manchester City chalk.  Tottenham are giving up an average of 1.0 goals per game on the road this season.  They are also giving up 12.5 shots per game to opponents in away games.  Mitrovic generally has a somewhat safe floor because he gets shots on goal.  It’s risky to fade City forwards, but if you want to do so, Mitrovic is really the only way to do so.

Much like Huddersfield, there isn’t really much that catches the eye in Fulham’s midfield.  Andre Schurrle ($7,500) is the one to target.  He leads Fulham’s midfield in goals and in shots.

There are currently six Fulham players classified as defenders that should start on Sunday, so there’s a lot of choose from.  Callum Chambers ($5,500) will most likely be playing more of a midfield position in for formation making him the most attractive.  However, for minimum price, Cyrus Christie ($4,000) is worthy of consideration.

Fulham GK Sergio Rico ($5,000) is off my radar on this slate since he is allowing the most goals in the EPL this season.  Tottenham should have their way in this game even without Kane.

EPL DFS Tottenham

Lucas Moura ($9,500) is a question mark on this slate.  He’ll be a solid mid-tier play if he is fit, but since he only just returned to on-field training this week, that seems like a stretch.  Veteran Fernando Llorente ($7,500) looks like he’ll be in line for his first EPL start this season.  Expectations shouldn’t be too high for Llorente, but he is facing a weak Fulham defense has allowed the most goals this season.

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Christian Eriksen ($9,500) has four goals in his last six EPL games, but he’s still somehow cheaper than Dele Alli ($10,000).  Without Kane and Son, both Eriksen and Alli will have to do more heavy lifting on the attacking side of the pitch.  They have a big plus matchup against a leaky Fulham defense.  I’d rather go with one of them than pay up for Raheem Sterling.  Erik Lamela ($8,500) is a solid mid-tier MID play on this slate mostly due to price and matchup.

Kieran Trippier ($6,500) has not been the same player this season and I don’t see any reason to pay that much for him especially on this slate.  Toby Alderweireld ($5,500) has the edge over Jan Vertonghen ($5,500) in my mind because of a safer floor.  Both could be headed for a clean sheet bonus assuming they take care of business.

Hugo Lloris ($6,000) is my second keeper on this slate.  Fulham are scoring 1.2 goals per game at home this year, but Tottenham should be able to make sure that doesn’t happen.

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