FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Saturday 1/19 – Injuries Everywhere

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Saturday 1/19

Welcome back to a special Saturday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready to help you get your process started for tonight’s 8-game slate main slate on FanDuel.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

My goal when I revamped the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.  When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

I’m trying to take a big picture look at the slate and give you a place to start your research, whether you’re a cash game player, GPP player (or maybe you play both – like me).  The smaller the slate, the less “cash-game friendly” it usually is, but that certainly doesn’t mean you can’t play cash games on small slates.

We have a massive amount of injury information that is going to shape how this slate plays out today.  I’m doing to my best to give you the different scenarios we are looking at, but this could be a wild and wacky slate tonight.

My best advice is to never settle on a lineup too early in the day and be willing to be flexible enough to incorporate the new information that becomes available throughout the day. At the same time, don’t abandon your core plays unless the slate absolutely demands it!

Let’s take a closer look at what tonight’s NBA slate has to offer!

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: 8-Game Saturday Night Slate

Injury Report

OUT: Goran Dragic, Kyle Anderson, Kent Bazemore, Larry Nance Jr., J.J. Barea, OG Anunoby, LeBron James, Wendell Carter Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, Clint Capela

Doubtful: NONE

Questionable: Trae Young, Tristan Thompson, Dennis Smith Jr., Ish Smith, Shaq Harrison, Wes Matthews, Josh Richardson, Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Aaron Gordon, Andre Drummond

Probable: Eric Gordon, Dwayne Dedmon

Obviously, that’s A LOT of injury information for tonight (hence the title of the article) and it’s definitely not ideal to have that many questionable players on a slate like this. The big names to pay attention to are Young, Thompson, Leonard, Collins, Gordon, and Drummond as they could potentially have the biggest impact on the slate.

Vegas Info

The two highest totals today come from the Houston-L.A. Lakers and Boston-Atlanta games. These are games we are going to want to target and both have reasonable spreads, too, with Houston favored by 7 and Boston favored by 8.5 points.

The lowest totals come from the Memphis-Toronto (208) and Miami-Chicago (206.5) games. Toronto is a heavy 12 point favorite and could rest some key players while Miami is only a 2.5 favorite in their game.

The Cavs find themselves are the biggest underdogs of the night again as they are +16 against the Nuggets tonight. Meanwhile, the tightest spread comes from the Detroit-Sacramento game in which the Kings are one-point favorites.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core plays section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to keep your bankroll up, otherwise, a cold week in tournaments may have you running out of funds quickly!

James Harden (14300)

If you think this is too much to pay for Harden, you’re wrong. What he’s doing right now is unprecedented in fantasy sports and fading him today is a fools’ errand. He’s averaging over 77 FD points in his last four games (yes, you read that correctly) and now gets paced up against the Lakers without Lebron. He already topped 78 FD points against L.A. back in December and fading the raw points that Harden provides is likely the best way to lose tonight. Don’t do it!

Blake Griffin (9700)

This is already a good spot for Griffin without the potential of Drummond sitting out. The Pistons are being paced up here by Sacto and it’s a tight spread. They laid an egg against the Kings in their last meeting but Griffin didn’t play in that game. I think Griffin is an easy cash game play independent of Drummond’s status, but if Drumm sits out then I’ll likely have him in 100% of lineups.

Bobby Portis (5200)

Wow, good job, FanDuel, on pricing up Portis after we found out that WCJ is out for an extended period of time (sarcasm intended). Portis should be chalky but I’m plugging him in any way. He’s way too cheap for his new role as the starting center and he returned 6x value on this price in only 27 minutes last game. I think he’s a lock for 30 FD points and could go for a lot more if his shot is falling tonight, he will be tough matchup for Whiteside on the perimeter.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays

Kyrie Irving (9500)

I love targeting Kyrie in pace-up spots and that’s exactly what the Celtics have here tonight against the Hawks. We’ve seen the Hawks hang around in games lately and allow opposing players to have big nights, and Irving is fresh off another monster outing last night against Memphis. In his last two games, he has 65 points and 29 assists! As long as he plays tonight and the game stays relatively close, I think Kyrie could go off again.

Myles Turner (7200)

While many will likely look to pay down at center in cash, paying up for Turner makes some sense in GPPs. He’s looked good in his return from a 3-game absence, posting 38 and 40 FD points in 27 and 32 minutes, respectively. His defensive stat-stuffing has been superb with 5 blocks and 5 steals over those two games and that’s the kind of GPP-winning upside I want on a nightly basis. The matchup with Dallas is solid, as DeAndre Jordan is not a great defender and may struggle with Turner’s perimeter shooting and athleticism.

Kyle Kuzma (7600)

The Kuz is coming off a massive 50-burger in his last game and is getting up a ton of shots (58 shot attempts over his last 3 games) for the Lakers as they wait for LeBron James to return to the lineup. The game with Houston has the potential to be really high scoring and the Rockets defense has taken a major hit with Chris Paul and Clint Capela out of the lineup. I like stacking Kuz with Harden in GPP lineups.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats. I’ve got a big list today!

Tyler Johnson (3900)

If Josh Richardson sits out again, then fire up TJ as a great value. He played 34 minutes last night and had 29 FD points.

Shelvin Mack (4100)

RETURN OF THE MACK! I was on him yesterday and dude dropped 31 in only 22 minutes against Boston. I love Mack in his current bench role.

Justin Holiday (4100)

Another Grizzly who is a tremendous value right now is Holiday. I wasn’t on him last night, but got 35 minutes and produced 34 FD points. That sheer volume of minutes is hard to pass up on for this price.

Omri Casspi (4300)

I still like Casspi coming off the bench. He had 24 FD points in 20 minutes last night and is still priced where we can profit on him for a bit.

Chandler Hutchinson (3800)

Hutchinson just isn’t getting priced up, despite going for 20+ FD points in three straight games. He’s not an elite fantasy producer, but his minutes are solid and he’s doing enough to return value.

Ante Zizic (4400)

If Tristan Thompson gets ruled out again, then I’m locking Zizic in for cash games. He did exactly what we thought he would do last night, putting up 33 FD points in 34 minutes against the Jazz.

Ivica Zubac (4000)

Zubac is my tourney pivot off Zizic (so many Z’s!). He played 28 minutes for the Lakers in their last game and has elite per-minute upside. Perhaps he’s proven to Luke Walton that he deserves the minutes over old man Tyson Chandler and “I once shot at the wrong basket” Javale McGee.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Slate Overview

If you’re new to the Breakdown, this is where I try to explain my roster construction for the slate and give a sample lineup based on how I am looking to approach it.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s slate is an example of “extreme” stars and scrubs construction. There are so many sub 5k values that you could theoretically just play 3-4 9k+ players and use value plays for all your other spots and I think that’s what I’m going to do.

Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. I’m plugging in my cash game core and then seeing which high floor plays I can fit in around them with the available value left in other positions.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. There’s still a lot of injury information we need before 7:00 PM when lineups lock.

PG: Tyler Johnson (3900)
PG: Kyrie Irving (9500)
SG: Justin Holiday (4100)
SG: James Harden (14300)
SF: Chandler Hutchinson (3800)
SF: Gerald Green (5000)
PF: Blake Griffin (9700)
PF: Bobby Portis (5200)
C: Ante Zizic (4400)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!