Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Saturday January 19

Welcome into the Saturday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! It’s another night with the hottest player in fantasy, James Harden so you know what to do.

In all seriousness, just go ahead and click the button next to Harden’s name. Play him, lock up your floor of 65 with a ceiling of 90 and build from there. Not only has Harden been on an insane tear, but he gets the Lakers on ABC in a primetime game and needs to be player #1 in your Fantasy Basketball Top Plays.

If you fade him and he goes off, he will likely end your night single handedly because he will be one of(if not the) highest owned players on the slate. DeMarcus Cousins carried ownership in his first game back for the Golden State(who admittedly played far better than I thought . Don’t think for a second that people will think twice about rostering Harden.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Lonzo Ball, Lakers 

Just typing that name as a top play makes me itchy, this game environment should be very solid for Ball. He’s coming into this one in great form, having recorded double digit points in three straight and flirting with a triple double in the overtime matchup against the Thunder. When we look at how the Rockets have fared against point guards overall, it doesn’t look like the spot to target Ball. Houston is near the top in the league but that’s a year long number, reflecting Chris Paul. They are much more mid-pack through the last 15 days, and that number is likely more representative of how they should be treated.

Over the past week while Lonzo has been running hot, he’s averaging 1.13 FPPM and is still at a very reasonable price tag. I think that if the Lakers are going to be able to stay close in this one, Ball is going to have to do a little of everything. That’s the best possible outcome for him anyway, but he’s got a great shot in a national TV game.

Honorable Mention – Darren Collison, Pacers

Fade – Kyle Lowry, Raptors

Lowry did his fair share of tilting DFS players this past game for multiple reasons. First, he wasn’t even supposed to play. He was ruled “out” early and we spent most of our day constructing lineups around Raptors value. Then, about 90 minutes before tip, he was back in and in a great matchup that was tough to ignore. Lowry played terribly for three quarters before turning it on and hitting value late.

The price is fine, but Kawhi Leonard is likely back for this game. It also comes against the Grizzlies, who allow the fewest assists to point guards in the game. Since Lowry is experiencing his lowest points and rebounds per game since about six seasons ago, he seems like a very unwise spend tonight.

Honorable Mention – De’Aaron Fox, Kings

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Jaylen Brown, Celtics

This has to be a first because I’m usually not one to turn to a Celtic the night before a slate kicks off. They have a habit of capping each other at all times but this is a rare spot that I think you can target Brown before any potential news breaks. The Celtics are a deep team and they’re on a back to back so something could happen after publish. Even if it doesn’t, I think Brown is a great pair with Harden on FanDuel and a great salary saver on DraftKings.

Boston gets Atlanta, one of the worst defensive squads in the NBA. They are also the stone worst against shooting guards in the league so the spot is great. You have the added bonus of Brown being a bench player so if this game gets out of hand, he’s likely going to see some extra court time. Even if Atlanta manages to stay close, Brown has been playing about 26 minutes and that is plenty to pay off his salary in a great matchup.

Honorable Mention – Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks

Fade – Victor Oladipo, Pacers 

I wish I could pinpoint exactly why Oladipo has been so dreadful these past few games. Perhaps he’s still nursing the shoulder injury that cropped up a little while ago. Perhaps he’s just in a skid and those things happen during a long NBA season. Regardless of why, I can’t possibly keep playing Oladipo and hoping he magically finds it. Even at a constantly lowering price point, he’s not coming all that close to paying off his salary.

When you look at his usage the past two weeks, the usage is solid for Dipo at 26.4 percent. It is down about four percent but that shouldn’t cause the results that we’ve seen lately. What is down significantly is the FPPM, which has bottomed out at 0.88 over the past two. That’s a difference of 0.30 against his seasonal mark, or about 25 percent of his production. I might still have a share if I play the 20 entry max that I have been lately, but Oladipo is mostly a fade. You shouldn’t always have this attitude, but he needs to earn his way back into my player pool.

Honorable Mention – Eric Gordon, Rockets

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Will Barton, Nuggets

We find ourselves in a very similar situation with the Cleveland Cavaliers as we did last night. They’re out on the road and a heavy underdog, making the top end Nuggets risky from a blowout perspective. If you want to mitigate that risk and not spend up for a player like Jamal Murray or Nikola Jokic, I’d suggest getting a piece of the Nuggets with Barton. In an extremely limited sample size, Barton has a 24.2 usage rate and 1.09 FPPM mark. This averages would be enough to pay off his salary with just a small increase in minutes tonight.

Barton has been working his way back from injury and while he did miss the past game, it was due to a personal injury and not a setback. The Cavs can’t really stop much of anyone at any position, especially without important members of the team in Larry Nance and likely Tristan Thompson. Barton also played 23 minutes in his last game, which exceeded his 14 and 15 in the previous two games. The Nuggets should continue to ramp him up and this is the perfect way to get some Nuggets exposure.

Honorable Mention – Jabari Parker, Bulls

Fade – DeAndre’ Bembry, Hawks 

This one is a little strange to me because while Bembry has been getting a ton of minutes lately, the price just seems way too high on either site to consider him strongly. He’s creeping up on $6,000 over on FD while he’s at $5,100 on DK and there’s a serious floor with Bembry. Look no further than when he played 29 minutes against the Nets and only mustered up two rebounds and two assists en route to 8.4 FD points. Even if you drop that score, it’s not ideal to pay almost $6,000 for the privilege of dropping a score.

The matchup is certainly nothing to write home about either. Boston continues to be a very good defensive squad as a team and they are tough on most positions in general. SF is no exception, where they give up the fifth fewest DK and real points. Bembry needs to score a decent number of points if he’s to return fantasy value ins the risk just seems to outweigh the potential reward.

Honorable Mention – Brandon Ingram, Lakers on FD

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Blake Griffin, Pistons 

I’m almost 100 percent I wrote up Griffin in this spot the last time around…and then he got ruled out that night for rest, likely so he was fresh for the next game against the Clippers in Los Angeles. He might well turn into chalk, depending on the status of Andre Drummond. The Pistons big man was forced to leave the game early yesterday with a nasal injury so it stands to reason there’s a chance he’s not ready tonight. Without Drummond on the floor this season, Griffin has a 36.5 percent usage rate and a 1.44 FPPM.

Even if Drummond is ready to go, Griffin is still an elite play. The Kings play at a top five pace, which tends to suit Griffin. They are also terrible against the power forward position, giving up the third most DK points, sixth most real points and the this most rebounds. Griffin still holds the edge in touches on the season, though Jokic and Harden are coming up fast. This is a fantastic spot for a player of Griffin’s caliber that always touches the ball.

Honorable Mention – Bobby Portis, Bulls is very chalky in all likelihood

Fade – Domantas Sabonis, Pacers 

When I first looked at Sabonis, I thought something was up because his minutes have been so low the past two games. My initial thought was they were scaling him back after playing extended minutes while Myles Turner was out, but it looks more like those games were just blowouts and he wasn’t needed. Even if I feel secure about the minutes, Sabonis needs to be hyper efficient every game and I suspect this one might not be it for him.

The Pacers will have to deal with DeAndre Jordan down low and he’s one of the big reasons that the Cavs are in the top 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint on the season. When you take those two elements away from Sabonis and give him just 25 minutes a night, it’s tough to see the path for him being worth playing. The price has come down to a solid ask but the production still has a significant risk given the matchup and low end minutes.

Honorable Mention – Pascal Siakam, Raptors

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Ivica Zubac, Lakers 

This play is a little bit riskier than I like to be in the article, but here it goes. The Lakers are trying different lineups to float their ship until LeBron James comes back and this past game, Zubac was one of the beneficiaries as he played 28 minutes and utterly smashed the Thunder for 28 points and 12 boards. If he can get anywhere close to those minutes again, he should be able to have at least a double double and the ceiling in much higher. In this past game, Zubac saw more minutes than Tyson Chandler and JaVale McGee put together.

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We just saw what happens to the Rockets against centers when they played the Nets and Jarrett Allen went bonkers on them, recording a game of 20+ points and 20+ rebounds. Zubac should have earned at least one more game to show what he can do since Chandler as been around since seemingly the 1980’s and McGee has been worked out of the starting role. That leaves the Lakers short on options other than Zubac. I’d feel better if he was at least starting and we knew that, but just give me 20 minutes at that price and I’m good with the outcome. A 15/15 game is well within reach provided the minutes are there.

Honorable Mention – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets if Tristan Thompson remains out

Fade – Hassan Whiteside, Heat

As I mentioned earlier, Andre Drummond left the game with a facial injury and if you played Whiteside, you had to figure that he had a larger chance at a big game since Detroit was down their starting center. Well, it’s pretty difficult to have a big game when you can’t get off the bench and Whiteside barely got to around 20 minutes. I assumed he was in foul trouble but that really wasn’t the case since he ended with just three. Therein lies the problem because you can’t feel good about Whiteside seeing the court, on a back to back especially.

I might try to hit Whiteside correctly in a GPP lineup since he is facing off against the Bulls and they are the fourth worst team against centers. The flip side of that is the Pistons gave up the ninth most real points to centers and that didn’t work out either. The matchup and price are enticing, and you don’t have to worry about him playing a ton of minutes last night. Just be aware how risky he is if you play him.

Honorable Mention – Nikola Vucevic, Magic

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all of your DFS needs. Every day is big in the NBA, and we have the conference championship games as well!