Main DraftKings NBA Picks January 19: You still can't fade Harden!

LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 13: Ante Zizic #41 of the Cleveland Cavaliers looks to pass during the second half of a game against the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on January 13, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Main DraftKings NBA Picks January 19: You still can’t fade Harden!

There are 10 games in the NBA today, but only eight of them make the main DraftKings NBA tournament tonight. Harden is very high priced, but has a superb matchup with the Lakers. Where do we find value to afford him? Well, the 37% of us that don’t want to lose money.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

De’Aaron Fox ($7,600): This is a really nice matchup for Fox here. He picked up 30.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Pistons just nine days ago. Yeah, that doesn’t hit value. But Fox will be a lot closer than Kyrie will. Irving has one of the best matchups of the night, but he has not come close to value in either game against the Hawks. It probably has something to do with playing just 43 minutes combined in those two games. Fox is a better bet and two grand cheaper.

Kyle Lowry ($7,400): Lowry put up 36.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Memphis. I wouldn’t go out of my way to use him here unless Kawhi sits again. He shouldn’t, since the only reason Leonard sat was in a back to back. Lowry is a solid mid level play, but I don’t see a lot of upside. That leaves him better suited for cash games.

Honorable Mention:

Jamal Murray ($7,200): Murray doesn’t have a ton of upside with the Denver guards getting healthy, but he still has between 32 and 38 DraftKings points in each of the last five games. That probably leaves him better suited for cash as well unless Harris and Barton are both out. That doesn’t seem likely.

Justise Winslow ($7,100): Winslow was a decent but unspectacular forward. Now that he is running the point with Dragic out, Winslow has exploded. He is only getting better running the point, and is a sure 5x value every time out. Against a team like the Bulls, it could be a lot more.

Lonzo Ball ($6,900): Ball is playing huge minutes lately, and he has at least 40 DraftKings points in three straight games. Ball was decent in two games against the Rockets earlier this year despite the presence of Chris Paul. Without Paul’s defense to worry about, this could be another big time game for Lonzo. I may just play him because I’m tired of everyone else having him and passing me.

Dark Horses:

Austin Rivers ($5,600): Rivers has become a rather large part of this offense with the Rockets in needs of guards and scoring. Rivers actually had his best game in Houston with Gordon on the court as well, so it actually appears as if there is some value here with Rivers. This price does make me a little nervous though.

Marcus Smart ($4,400): Smart destroyed Memphis last night for 42 DraftKings points. Of course, the issue here is the blowout potential. Smart has 42 DraftKings points in 50 minutes against the Hawks so far this year. However, after what he did last night, there’s a good chance Smart puts up a nice game for the price here.

My pick: Winslow(PG), Smart(G);N/A

DENVER, CO – NOVEMBER 23: Evan Fournier #10 of the Orlando Magic plays the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on November 23, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

James Harden ($13,400): How do you fade Harden? He has not been below 70 DraftKings points since January 7th and his low mark with Paul out is 57.75. Gordon is back, but Capela is gone, so this offense is still running through Harden and Harden only. He has 144.25 DraftKings points in just two games against the Lakers. Paul played in both of those. Harden is a legit threat for triple digits tonight, so go ahead and keep fading him. I enjoy money. Harden was only 38% owned on Wednesday. Guess who most of the cashing lineups anchored with?

Honorable Mention:

Buddy Hield ($6,600): Hield only went for 21 DraftKings points on the Pistons nine days ago, but that game was a bit of a statistical anomaly. Hield was a strong 8-13 from the floor, but he only had two rebounds besides the points. No assists. No steals. Just the points an two rebounds. The chances of that happening again are astronomical. I don’t know that Hield will have enough peripherals to make him worth this lofty price, but he’s worth a look.

Eric Gordon ($5,900): Since Gordon experienced some soreness in his knee after 21 minutes in his return against the Nets on Wednesday, we have to keep an eye on his status. If Gordon plays, I want a piece of this. He racked up 30.25 DraftKings points in just 21 minutes on the Nets. There is a lot of scoring to make up for with both Capela and Paul out. Harden takes the bulk of it, but the shots are going to be there for Gordon as well.

Evan Fournier ($5,400): Well, if the Magic are going to keep running Fournier this hard, we have no choice but to take notice. Fournier has played at least 37 minutes in five straight games, and has at least 27 DraftKings points in the last four. His first appearance against the Bucks was nothing to write home about. In fact, it was rather lousy. However, it is hard to ignore what Fournier has done lately.

Dark Horses:

Malik Beasley ($4,900): Beasley is in play again, but only if Harris remains sidelined. He has been putting up at least 5x value in six straight games now. This is a big time matchup against Cleveland here if Beasley gets the start. Those really daring could play Beasley regardless of Harris’s status just in case this is a blowout like it should be.

Josh Hart ($4,700): Hart had a monster off the bench on Thursday putting up 42 DraftKings points. That was more than he had in the previous two games combined. KCP was a dud, so we may see the shift back to Hart off the bench. If Hart starts, I want all of this. If he comes off the bench, this is a risky proposition.

Reggie Bullock ($4,600): Bullock continues to be a strong value play. He was especially strong against the Kings a few games ago, racking up 28.75 DraftKings points in 30 minutes. Bullock has not been under 20 DraftKings points since New Year’s Day. His price is inching upwards, but he is still a solid value pick because of the nice floor. There just isn’t a whole lot of upside here.

My pick: Harden(SG); Harden(PG), Gordon(SG), Bullock(G)

ORLANDO, FL – NOVEMBER 14: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dunks the ball during the game against the Orlando Magic at Amway Center on November 14, 2014 in Orlando, Florida. The Magic won the game 101-85. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700): It’s really hard to ignore what Giannis has done lately. He is putting up massive totals in small minutes. Of course, Giannis only played 19 minutes against the Magic the first time around. He still got 31.5 DraftKings points, but if you’re playing Giannis you are more than likely fading Harden. You need at least 60 here, and I’m not sure you get it. Giannis’s ability to crack 50 in 25 minutes is nice, but he’s going to need at least 30 minutes to come close to 60. How brave are you?

Kawhi Leonard ($9,200): Leonard picked up 44.5 DraftKings points on Memphis the first time around against former teammate Kyle Anderson. Well, he wont have to deal with Anderson this time around. It’s Justin Holiday. I would say that Leonard should bust 50 on Holiday, which makes him a much safer play than Giannis. With his price $1,500 lower, you could also squeeze him in with Harden without playing six other value plays.

Honorable Mention:

Luka Doncic ($7,900): This is a tough matchup for Doncic, but his price is lowered to compensate, so I still see people going his way. Doncic is priced in a way that we can pair him with Harden. He has not been under 40 DraftKings points since January 5th. I’m not sure Indiana can hold him under either. I think we could do worse for the price, but the upside isn’t really there against Indiana.

Kyle Kuzma ($7,500): We play Kuzma hoping for a night like he had against the Thunder on Thursday. With the Rockets seemingly thin everywhere, there a chance it happen again. The caveat here is that the Rockets are one of the better teams against small forwards when at full strength. Can they clamp down Kuzma? If he gets his 31 point average against the Rockets, we are likely going to be a little disappointed.

Thaddeus Young ($6,200): Young has put up big numbers against everyone but Boston and Atlanta lately. I don’t really think Barnes can keep a handle on Young either, so I’m willing to go after him, even at this price. The middle tier of forwards is kind of a mess. You may want to fill those after Harden and find your value elsewhere.

Dark Horses:

Jabari Parker ($4,500): Parker still isn’t seeing huge minutes, but he is putting up big numbers for the minutes he plays. Over the last three games, Parker has 77.25 DraftKings points in just 54 minutes. It doesn’t seem as though the Bulls are ready to commit more minutes to Parker just yet, but how long can they deny him? He ravaged the Heat for 41 DraftKings points earlier this season when he was starting. He should put up good numbers no matter how long he plays tonight.

Justin Holiday ($3,800): Sure, I stop playing Holiday, and he went off for 31.5 DraftKings points last night. It just took him a bit to get acclimated to his new surroundings in Memphis, I guess. Holiday had solid numbers against Toronto while with the Bulls. Expect something great for this price tonight.

James Nunnally ($3,300): In their desperation, the Rockets signed Nunnally to a ten day deal. Faried wont arrive for this game, so Nunnally has at least one more game of good run. He played 25 minutes on Wednesday, but was a little rusty. If he plays that many minutes again, Nunnally is worth a dart for this price.

My pick: Parker(SF), Holiday(F); Parker(SF), Doncic(F)

CHARLOTTE, NC – DECEMBER 12: Blake Griffin #23 of the Detroit Pistons reacts against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on December 12, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Blake Griffin ($9,000): Blake sat out against the Kings on the left coast swing several days ago, and we were left lamenting about what he could have done to the Sacramento front. Now we get to find out. This is a smash spot for Blake here. Drummond was terrible against the Kings the first time around. Was it because Blake was out?

Honorable Mention:

Aaron Gordon ($6,600): Gordon was having a strong game until he had to leave the game with lower back tightness after 31 minutes. Knowing the Magic, they will probably hold out Gordon here. If they don’t, I’m willing to take the risk because the upside is considerable. If not, I don’t know that I would trust any of the rest of the Magic front.

Bobby Portis ($5,700): Portis is going to see a lengthy run in the starting lineup with Wendell Carter out for a couple of months. Portis had a nice game against Denver with 33.75 DraftKings points in his first start of the year. Expect Portis to go well above and beyond this price. Grab him while the price is still right!

Dark Horses:

Chandler Hutchison ($3,700): Hutchison has three straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points and more than 25 minutes. This is still his job, though I would be surprised if Parker didn’t cut into his minutes a little. At any rate, Hutchison is a very good punt play because of the minutes he gets. Just don’t expect him to drop 30 anytime soon.

Omri Casspi ($3,700): Casspi still put up his third straight game of more than 20 DraftKings points despite seeing his minutes slashed against Boston. However, Toronto is a bigger team, so I would expect Casspi to get at least as much run as Holiday here, if not more. Holiday is going to start, but Casspi is still a strong value play.

My pick: Portis(PF); Portis(PF), Hutchison(UTIL)

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – JANUARY 17: Willie Cauley-Stein #00 of the Sacramento Kings reacts after a play against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on January 17, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

Best Bet:

Nikola Jokic ($10,100): I really don’t like this spot for Jokic. However, he has a fighting chance going against Zizic instead of Tristan Thompson. That and the rest of the centers have tough matchups (Vucevic), or have been awful for an extended period of time and struggled against tonight’s opponent last time around (Drummond). Jokic is probably going to outscore everyone else at center, but I really don’t think he will hit value. Only you can decide if he fits your build or not.

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Honorable Mention:

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,800): WCS smoked Drummond in Sacramento for 43 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes. Sure, we could take a chance on Drummond because the numbers say to play him. Or we could save a lot of money and go with WCS instead.

Marc Gasol ($6,700): Gasol had just four points last night, but racked up 11 rebounds and 12 assists to salvage his night. Gasol destroyed Toronto in the first meeting for 47.5 DraftKings points. He probably wont do that again, but this is still a great spot for Gasol.

Hassan Whiteside ($6,500): I don’t know how much you can really trust Whiteside’s minutes right now, but he dominated the Bulls for 43 DraftKings points in just 21 minuts in the first meeting. I would even consider using Bam here in limited minutes, though it is possible that Portis could put up more of a fight than Carter did.

Dark Horses:

Al Horford ($6,000): If you play narratives, Horford gets a crack at his former team. Atlanta is weak up front, but Horford’s numbers have been all over the place lately. He failed in a smash spot against the Nets and had a strong game against a pretty strong Toronto front. You are quite literally playing roulette with Horford right now.

Ante Zizic ($4,600): Zizic is still going to start here again. After a slow start last night, Zizic came alive and put up over 30 DraftKings points. It’s not going to be easy against Jokic, but Zizic may be worth the risk.

Ivica Zubac ($4,300): Will the stubborn Lakers finally run their best center? Zubac was huge against the Thunder and some guy named Steven Adams. What would he do to some guy named…..uh….who’s starting at center for the Rockets? Exactly. Oh, how I hope the Lakers come to their senses and run Zubac. If not, we have to move back to Zizic.

My pick: Cauley-Stein(C,) Zubac(UTIL); Zubac(C)

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