NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday January 19
Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
What a mess. Tilt City. Insert shoveling money GIF. That was basically how Friday Night’s NBA DFS slate went for most, me included as two key players who were highly owned were totally unexpected late scratches including DeMar DeRozan and Lou Williams. The DeRozan ownership was through the roof, and truthfully I am not sure why as he was over 40% owned in GPP’s and over 70% in cash games. With players of that ownership drawing zeroes, it is not shocking to see the cash lines well below 300 and winning GPP scores barely over 320 on this night. Personally, I got killed by the Lou Williams late scratch so any “advantage” I had with 0 DeRozan ownership was quickly wiped out. Nights like that stink even when you may come out ahead – you do research and build your best guess lineups and then something like this happens with no warning – you can tilt, but this is what NBA DFS is and sometimes you just need to move on to the next slate.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Saturday Slate Breakdown and a FREE ROLL!
If you are still tilting from the DeRozan and Lou Will late scratches, lets help build back up that bankroll with a little Picks and Pivots NBA FREE ROLL from our friends at FantasyDraft with $50 of tickets up for grabs for Sunday’s slate. Get in – only 250 spots available – let’s get to work!
Let’s make this simple – open your FantasyDraft app, webpage or simply grab a piece of paper and write down James Harden ($23.4K) in permanent ink as a lock button play. Over the last two weeks, Harden has a 49% usage rate, putting up 1.9 FP/M with 70+ fantasy points in 5 straight and 80+ fantasy points in two of those five games.
There is no argument I can make to fade him – sure he is $23K, the most expensive player on the slate by a wide margin but on FantasyDraft the pricing is always such where you can lock in one star with relative ease. Putting in Harden as player #1 allows you just under $11K per player for the rest of your roster – it is a spot you don’t get cute, you play him and move on. Got it?
Against Brooklyn, we saw Eric Gordon ($11.6K) return and immediately step back into Robin role to Harden’s Batman – second on the team with a 26.5% usage rate and 1.46 FP/M. Gordon is probable to play tonight but this is a spot we need to be careful before we simply lock him in – Gordon left his first game back after only 21 minutes of court time with knee soreness and did not return per sports radio 610.
"“His Knee was a little sore, and he was getting towards his minutes (limit),” Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni said after the Rockets 145-142 loss to the Brooklyn Nets. “We thought it would be cautious to just not push him anymore.“I hope it’s nothing more than soreness, general soreness.”"
First off, I am so happy we have General Soreness back in our lives – Jimmy Butler is likely thrilled. Secondly, as effective as EG was in this first game back, it becomes really hard for me to trust him with minutes limit talk and the potential re-injury.
As scary as it sounds, the safest secondary plays here might be Austin Rivers ($11.5K) and Gerald Green ($8.9K) that despite their low fantasy point per minute outputs and low usage are basically locked into 30-35 minutes a night and you can pencil them in for around 30 FP a night just from the sheer court time they are getting.
NBA DFS – Running it back with the Lake Show:
The Rockets/Lakers have the second highest total on the slate and the 3rd fastest projected pace so this is a game environment we can and should attack as you get the pricing constructs that allow you to lock in Harden and all the mid-range value on both sides with relative ease.
The Lakers “Big Three” right now of Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram are all priced in the $12-$13K range on FantasyDraft and are coming off an OT game against the Thunder where the trio racked up 130 fantasy points combined.
Ivica Zubac ($8.5K) may not have drawn the start against OKC, but he played the entirety of the closing frame(s), checking in at the tail-end of the 3rd quarter and playing the entire 4th quarter and every minute of OT. Zubac had a monster 26 point, 12 rebound outing, good for 42 fantasy points and it would not be shocking after that performance to see him re-inserted into the starting line-up – this is a key news item to watch to see if we get confirmation of the Lakers lineup before lock.
It is also worth noting, Kentavious Caldwell Pope drew the start but much like Zubac, it was Josh Hart who got all the 4th quarter run and started OT. This whole Lakers team feels fairly priced but with the key context that they all have shown massive profit potential on these price points. Tonight in a nationally televised game against James Harden, this is looking like an ideal game stack.
Go ahead and try it:
James Harden
Lonzo Ball
You can lock in those 7 players from this game, and you still have $9K for the last man into your lineup. You can mix and match easily too – swap in/out Eric Gordon or bring in Josh Hart if you want – either way, this is an easy to build game stack you can either go all-in on or mini stack the key pieces.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays and News to Watch:
One of the tricky aspects of this slate at first look is that we have so much news we simply have to wait on – sure, the Rockets/Lakers stack is a nice option to hone in on early but there is some news that could completely alter where you prioritize in my mind.
The first big piece is the status of Andre Drummond who left Friday night’s game with a nose injury and did not return which could vault Blake Griffin ($16.6K) into near must play status against the Kings. This season, with Drummond off the court, Griffin sees a 5% usage boost, leading the team with massive marks of 36.8% usage rate and 1.44 FP/M – if Drummond is out, Blake becomes player #2 into every build I made right behind James Harden.
The Raptors are going to pull some shenanigans again tonight – you watch. Toronto ruled out both Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard for rest against the Suns, then pulled the ole switcharoo and put Lowry back in before lock. I expect Kawhi will be back tonight but I am going into this slate assuming Lowry sits – take a look at these quotes from the Raptors beat reporter:
Lowry said he still doesn't quite feel like himself after missing so much time with the back injury. "I'm a little bit out of shape, out of condition... I need to stay in the gym and continue to work to find the rhythm, find the shot. I've just got to find it. It will come."
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) January 18, 2019
What it shock you at all to see Lowry get the rest tonight with Kawhi back? Similar to the Drummond/Blake situation – this is one of those spots in NBA DFS where if one is out, you play the other. With Lowry off the court this season, Kawhi has a 35% usage rate and 1.4 FP/M of production.
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It may seem aggressive to get all of Harden/Blake/Kawhi into one build – but it is doable – leaving you $8.5K per player for the rest of your roster. Remember all those $8-$9K guys we listed off in the Rockets/Lakers game? Yeah there is an easy path to this build as well.
Speaking of $8-$9K value – Ante Zizic ($8.9K) is right back on our radar tonight with the Cavaliers short-handed but we need to get confirmation first that Tristan Thompson will remain sidelined. IF he is – Zizic, fresh off a 15/10, 33 fantasy point performance against the Jazz, becomes a lock and load value play here tonight.
Speaking of news to watch – the Hawks look like they are in some serious trouble tonight with Trae Young AND John Collins both questionable due to illness. Jeremy Lin ($8.7K) could become another elite value play on this slate even though the match-up against Boston is a tough one, this would be a spot where the minutes and usage relative to his price point far outweigh the match-up.
With SO much uncertainty – this is not a day for a sample line-up and this is not a day to get married to a first build. There are huge injury spots to watch for that could completely change the slate and I didn’t even mention the “old news” of the Bulls being without Wendell Carter Jr. (Bobby Portis time), Dennis Smith Jr. still looking like he could be sidelined, and Tony Snell being day-to-day (OK, that was just to make sure you were still reading).
Build some player pools, get a feel for the slate and then wait. That is my advice today – wait. Get all the news and THEN build. This is one of those wait and see slates where we need to react to th news but whatever you do – don’t fade James Harden, please.
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