Fantasy Baseball 2019: 3 Offseason Risers and Fallers

With a lot of free agents off the board, here are three that had their fantasy baseball value rise and fall for the 2019 season.

While Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are still on the market, a lot of other free agents know where they are going to play for 2019. There have been a couple of big trades that will have a big impact, too. Some players moved to a new home ballpark or a completely new division. Either one has an effect on their fantasy baseball value.

The Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees have signed five players each. The New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Oakland A’s, Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins brought in three free agents (not counting the trades they made). Some of those situations favor pitchers more than hitters and vice versa.

Some players are taking shorter deals so they will be able to hit the market again for the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Smart on them. They can prove their value after one great season and cash in on the big contract they want.

There has been only one signed contract for over five years and that belongs to Patrick Corbin and his six-year deal with the Nationals. Nathan Eovaldi and the Boston Red Sox are behind him at four years.

There’s been an ongoing debate about the lack of big contracts being handed out and if that will lead to a work stoppage when the current CBA expires. That’s more for a real-life baseball post. All I can tell you is that wherever Machado and Harper sign, that team will see a big impact in their offense’s fantasy value.

Until then, I can only talk about the current deals and what they mean for fantasy baseball in 2019.

Before I get into my list, here are some honorable mentions for fantasy baseball risers and fallers for the 2019 season.

Yasmani Grandal: Rise

Kelvin Herrera: Rise

Ian Kinsler: Fall

Chris Owings: Fall

Now, here’s the list.

Michael Brantley was my American League comeback player of the year. He was labeled as injury prone throughout his time with the Cleveland Indians. Brantley averaged 114 games in his nine full seasons.

He played in 143 games in 2018 after playing in 11 and 90 in his previous two seasons. Brantley hit .309 with 17 home runs and 76 RBIs. The fact that the Indians would rather have an outfield of Tyler Naquin, Leonys Martin and Greg Allen is surprising.

The Houston Astros took advantage and signed Brantley. He will be the starting left fielder and bat fifth in, what looks like, a better lineup behind Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.

While Minute Maid Park is a middle-of-the-road park in terms of hitter friendliness, Globe Life, Angel Stadium and T-Mobile Park favor hitters for home runs.

Brantley may not be a 30-home run hitter but if he can hit 20 with 85 RBIs and a .290 batting average, that is a great get for your fantasy team as your OF3.

DJ LeMahieu signed a two-year deal with the New York Yankees. This and the Troy Tulowitzki signing likely take them out of the Manny Machado running.

When news of this signing broke, many people were wondering where LeMahieu was going to play. First base was taken by Luke Voit and, second has Gleyber Torres, Tulo at short and Miguel Andujar as third base.

LeMahieu was told to bring a lot of gloves after he signed.

Our friends at Yanks Go Yard broke down LeMahieu’s playing time throughout his career. Of his 7772 career innings, 7460 of them have been at second base. I don’t see him moving around the diamond like Brian Cashman said he would.

Roster Resource lists LeMahieu as the starting second baseman and Torres moving over to shortstop, pushing Tulowitzki to the bench. This is not a bad idea. Though, the roster will get even more crowded with the return of Didi Gregorius halfway through the season.

With the lack of guaranteed playing time and moving away from Coors Field, even though Yankee Stadium is a hitter-friendly park, it’s hard to see LeMahieu’s fantasy value improving with this move.

Unlike the Yankees, the New York Mets know what their infield is going to look like. Even after trading for second baseman Robinson Cano, the front office felt like it had to make another move.

Lowrie will move across the diamond to third base. Cano stays at second and Todd Frazier will take over first base duties. The Mets also have prospect Peter Alonso waiting should Frazier struggle early.

Jed Lowrie signed a two-year deal with the Mets. He is coming off a career year with the Oakland A’s. In 157 games, he hit 23 home runs and 99 RBIs with a .267 average.

The pitching situation in the NL East isn’t that good. Outside of the trio in Washington, Aaron Nola is the only other great pitcher in the division. The Atlanta Braves don’t have that shutdown starter. The Miami Marlins barely have good starters.

Nationals Park and Citizens Bank Park favor hitters greatly. While the other stifle home runs, they are good for hits and run scoring.

I project Lowrie hitting 18 home runs with 85 RBIs and a .266 average. It’s a bit of a dropoff from his all-star season. However, he will gain third base eligibility during the season, increasing his fantasy value.

I think whatever team Edwin Diaz was traded to would have affected his fantasy baseball value. There was no way he would have been able to replicate his 2018 season.

In 73.1 innings, he recorded 57 saves with a 1.96 ERA, 0.791 WHIP, 124 strikeouts and 17 walks. He was the best closer in the game.

That won’t happen this season. As I just mentioned with Lowrie, there are some hitter-friendly ballparks in the division. The offenses are better in the NL East compared to the AL West. The Nationals have a solid lineup. The Phillies have a few dangerous bats. The Braves loaded up their roster.

The Mets bullpen is a question mark as well. While they did bring back Jeurys Familia, the rest of the bullpen is not as reliable as their cross-town rival. The lack of good relievers will limit his save chances as well

Do not waste an early draft pick on Diaz. You are drafting for what he can do this season, not his previous performance. Diaz was drafted outside the top 100 last year. He is being drafted in Round 6 in standard leagues. That’s too high for a closer.

With the move to the NL East, Diaz will have a 2.60 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 95 strikeouts and 32 saves. That’s not a bad season but it’s a drop from last year. He’s a good closer but not worth his current ADP. Draft a different player in this spot.

The Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays made an interesting three-team trade early in the offseason.

The one surprising piece was the Rays moving on from rookie first baseman Jake Bauers. He will now play for the Indians.

In 96 games last season, Bauers hit 11 home runs and 48 RBIs with a .201 batting average. He had a career .276 average in the minors so he may take some time to adjust to the pitching. The power is there though.

The move to the AL Central will help Bauers. The opposing pitching is lackluster. Ivan Nova may be the best pitcher he’ll face in the division. That’s a good start for a good season.

Bauers will also be protected by Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana. Something he wouldn’t have had in Tampa Bay.

The five ballparks are not that hitter friendly. Progressive Field in Cleveland was ranked the highest for home runs at 14th.

If you are looking for a cheap first baseman or utility player, target Bauers in the later rounds.

Tanner Roark has been an average pitcher throughout his six-year career. He has a 3.59 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 with a 64-54 record.

Those numbers don’t look great but pitching in Washington was at least keeping him afloat. Now that he’ll call Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati home, those numbers will get inflated.

GAB ranked first in home runs, fourth in runs and 10th in hits last season. For a pitcher who doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, that spells danger.

Roark is one of those pitchers you draft for your bench and start if you needed to reach a starts minimum. He wouldn’t hurt your ratios greatly. Now, I won’t even draft him.

His teammates Alex Wood and Luis Castillo will have more success but Roark would need to change his game completely if he wants to maintain his stats. Looking at the batters he’ll have to face, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Christian Yelich among others, he’ll have his work cut out for him.

Roark will easily finish with an ERA over 4.00, a WHIP close to 1.30 and a 3.0 walk rate. He’s a streaming option in standard leagues.

There are plenty of other players with a change to their fantasy baseball value this season. These were the six that stood out to me. Things could change once we see the big free agents sign, whenever that happens.