Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Sunday January 20
By John Fazio
Good day and Greetings from your DFS host and Vegas bettor. All eyes are on the NFL Championships today, but let’s make some money in the NBA anyway. Let’s jump into our fantasy NBA best plays!
The immediate question on this light 3 game schedule is what to do with Karl-Anthony Towns for our fantasy NBA best plays. He’s the only high salary guy on DraftKings, $2100 higher than any other on the slate and a full $4000 higher than any other player on his team.
Normally for me this would be an immediate roster. I’m talking 100% all the way. Since this is such an important roster question today, let’s analyze Towns and determine if we build around or mostly fade him.
Reasons to Core Towns:
When he’s on, he can match anyone except Harden in pure DraftKings points and also on a points per minute basis. Ten games back at Miami he played 37 minutes scoring 34 points and collecting 18 rebounds plus auxiliaries, totaling 86.5 DraftKings points representing an astounding 2.34 points per minute.
He also appears to be the only player today capable of producing a whopping high score. Not only did he light it up against the aforementioned Miami squad that is ranked 23rd in pace, he’s playing a Suns team ranked 12th in pace while also ranked a lowly 28th against the center position.
Reasons to fade Towns:
Quite simply, the minutes played. What’s going on here? In the last 3 games his court time has gone from 37 minutes to 28 to 21 – he accumulated 78.75 DK points in 37 minutes and 31 in the 21 minute outing. And in the most recent game the final score was close, whereas today Minnesota is favored by 10 points.
That’s still a good points per minute average, anywhere from 2.13 points per minute to 1.48, but 31 DK points isn’t going to cut the mustard with a salary of $10600.
Interestingly his salary jumped from $9700 to $10600 after producing only 31 DK points. So how do we play this?
Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Core Towns
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10600), Minnesota
I am going to be playing Towns in at least 70% of my lineups. He is coming off 2 relatively bad games in a row and he is in a perfect spot to turn his play around today.
Those bad outings, his jump in salary and the blowout possibility will be enough to keep some players away from him which is vital to us, to be able to roster the top gun without holding hands with 67% of all DFS entries.
If he does score huge, which certainly could happen here if he gets enough playing time, it will be extremely difficult to win or place high without him. I am willing to take that chance.
Other Top Value Rosters:
Guillermo Hernangomez ($4400), Charlotte
With Zeller still injured and Kaminski hardly playing, the Hornets are starting Bismark Biyombo and sometimes quickly switching away to him.
He has a very good points per minutes average lately, well over 1, and while sometimes he does not get the minutes to shine, when he does he swamps his low salary and can be a great asset in your lineup.
Jeremy Lamb ($5400), Charlotte
He’s in a good spot to pick up close to 40 DK points today in a pivot away from Walker. He’s priced $2700 cheaper than Walker who is playing against the number 1 ranked defense versus point guards. The last time these 2 teams met this season, Lamb out-produced Walker both in points and rebounds.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5300), Indiana
Another interesting pivot away from the players above him in cost. When these 2 teams last met he was the high scorer on the team, albeit Oladipo did not play. His very inconsistent outings will keep his ownership very low, and Charlotte is ranked 22nd in the league against the small forward position.
Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Top Rosters:
Devin Booker ($8300), Phoenix
The Suns have 3 players questionable, namely Holmes, Crawford and Ayton. If they are ruled out, Phoenix will make for impressive fantasy possibilities. Booker is the top producer and will have an even greater usage than before.
Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5700), Phoenix
His salary is rising but still way too low for his production. He has earned more than 1 DK point per minute the last 4 games with his best supplying 52.25 DK points in 30 minutes of court time. Additionally Phoenix ranks 30th defending the small forward position.
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Quincy Acy ($3000), Phoenix
If Holmes and Ayton are ruled out, Acy will be a chalk great roster play as he will draw the start and be forced to see substantial minutes. Phoenix is lax in defending the center position so this should be an easy roster winner.
Derrick Rose ($6400), Minnesota
It’s unclear if Rose will be restricted or rest here because of the back to back schedule, but if he plays he should be a good complement to Towns. Yesterday he supplied 35.25 DraftKings points in 27 minutes and has been efficient since coming back from injury.
If he is limited it will be even more reason to core Towns.
Tobias Harris ($7600), LA Clippers
He’s a near must roster if Danilo Gallinari is ruled out – and as of this writing he is doubtful. Harris would solidly lead the team in production and San Antonio is weak in defending the forward positions.
Mike Scott ($3200), LA Clippers
If Scott starts in place of Gallinari he would be great as a punt play. He routinely averages over 1 DK point per minute and the only reason he’s not normally fantasy worthy is his reduced minutes on the court. Watch the starting lineups and roster if he starts.
LeMarcus Aldridge ($8500), San Antonio
Don’t worry with punt plays with the Spurs today. When San Antonio last visited the Clippers, Aldridge lit up the stat sheet with 38 points and 7 rebounds. He is a great stack with this next selection:
DeMar DeRozan ($8400), San Antonio
He says he definitely will start after missing the last game with an ankle injury. His last appearance versus LA saw him score 25 points and collect 13 rebounds. The 2 Spurs stars look great in this spot.
As always, watch for injury news and roster accordingly.