FanDuel NBA Breakdown: 1/21 – MLK Day Extravaganza

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Monday 1/21

Welcome back to the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready to help you get your process started for 11 games on this Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

MLK Day has always been a big day for NBA Basketball. FanDuel is chopping up the games into 3 different slates, with an all-day slate tipping off at 12:30, the main slate at 3:00 and the evening slate at 6:00.  I’m going to do my best to hit on as many of the games as I possibly can in today’s breakdown.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

My goal when I revamped the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.  When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

I’m trying to take a big picture look at the slate and give you a place to start your research, whether you’re a cash game player, GPP player (or maybe you play both – like me).  I would caution against playing too much of the all-day slate on FanDuel today since there is no late swap and 10 hours between the first game and the last game and plenty of injury news to monitor.

Let’s take a quick look at our injury situation and Vegas data to get us started.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: 11 Game Holiday Slate

Injury Report

OUT: Lonzo Ball, Anthony Davis, Kyle Anderson, Kent Bazemore, Dennis Smith Jr., Raul Neto,  J.J. Barea, Wendell Carter Jr., Clint Capela, Allen Crabbe, Thabo Sefolosha, Markieff Morris, Larry Nance Jr., Andre Drummond, Tristan Thompson, Joakim Noah

Doubtful: Rajon Rondo, LeBron James

Questionable: Ricky Rubio, Joel Embiid, Trey Burke, Jimmy Butler, Aaron Gordon, DeAndre Jordan

Probable: Marc Gasol, Dwayne Dedmon, Alex Len

The biggest news here is the addition of Lonzo Ball and Anthony Davis to those already ruled out, as it’s going to open up some potentially important value for the main slate.

Embiid and Butler’s statuses are crucial info we’ll need to keep an eye on as the Philadelphia matches up with Houston in a potentially high-scoring affair.

Vegas Info

We don’t have all the lines set just yet for today’s games, but there are a few that really stand out as games that we should have a lot of interest in targeting for DFS.

***The Sixers-Rockets game has a healthy 234 total and only a 5 point spread in national TV game on TNT.

***The Lakers-Warriors is the second half of the TNT double-header and has a 233 total, but a sizable spread with the Warriors being 11 point road favorites.

***The Kings-Nets game looks very interesting as it has a 230 total and only a 3-point spread.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Early Games

OKC @ NY

Anytime we have OKC on the slate we have to consider Russell Westbrook (12600) and Paul George (10200) and the matchup here against New York is sweet for both. I prefer George on a point-per-dollar basis if I had to pick one.

But the spread nine points and that feels generous, considering the fact the Knicks have lost five in a row and are missing Enes Kanter. I absolutely want no part of any Knicks players on any slate today – you can’t make me play them! I won’t do it!

CHI @ CLE

This is a game I have some interest in using players from. When two bad teams play, sometimes good things can happen. The total isn’t high in this game because both teams play slow, but it is only a two-point spread. For some reason, FanDuel did not price up Bobby Portis (5200) again and Ante Zizic (4700) is still too cheap considering he will start again and has hit 30 FD points in three straight games.

Rodney Hood (4100), Cameron Payne (revenge for only 4000!), and Cedi Osman (4700) are all really cheap if you feel like rostering bad players who are going to play enough minutes that they may stumble their way to value.

DET @ WAS

The recipe for Detroit is likely going to be same here again in this matchup. Andre Drummond is out and Ish Smith is questionable, so I love Blake Griffin (9900), Zaza Pachulia (3600), and Luke Kennard (4200).  Meanwhile, the Washington guys are all priced up beyond what I’m willing to pay for them and I’m not likely to play much on their side of things. 10400 for Brad Beal, really?

DAL @ MIL

Giannis Antetokounmpo (11500) feels too cheap for this matchup with Dallas and I think it’s absolutely possible to squeeze him with Harden in some all-day lineups.  Eric Bledsoe (7700) has also been playing really well and has a great matchup against Dallas as point guards just continue to shred them on a nightly basis.

On the Dallas side, Jalen Brunson (3500) looks like he could be a solid value as DSJ and Barea are both out. I’m not interested in paying up for Luka Doncic, but if DeAndre Jordan were to miss then we could have more potential value in Dwight Powell (3900) and Maxi Kleber (4800).

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Main Slate Cash Core

James Harden (14000)

Do you like winning NBA DFS contests? If so, then I suggest locking Harden into your lineups yet again. I see no reason why he won’t push for 70+ FD points again tonight and I’ve been blown away by the fact that he’s still not 100% owned in cash games and only 60-65% owned in tournaments. The Rockets are being paced up by the Sixers and this game has the potential to shoot out (which, let’s be honest – don’t all Rockets games these days?). Lock in Harden, now! Go ahead, I’ll wait.

Julius Randle (8200)

Randle is the biggest beneficiary of Anthony Davis’s absence from the Pelicans’ lineup tonight. With Davis off the floor, Randle’s usage goes up all the way to 32% and he becomes a 1.45 FPPM player. He should play all the minutes he can handle and should have no problem getting us 45+ FD points tonight even against a Memphis team that plays slower.

Nikola Mirotic (6100)

Mirotic is the other Pelican that I’m locking in cash games tonight. He’s way too cheap for what his role should be now that Davis is the on the shelf for a while. Mirotic sports a 25% usage rate sans-Davis and produces at a 1.25 FPPM clip. He’s likely to take Davis’s starting spot and play 30+ minutes, meaning he should easily return value at this price.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Main Slate GPP Plays

Brandon Ingram (6700)

No Lonzo Ball means we should see plenty of “Point-Ingram” tonight against the Warriors. His upside is considerable here, given his fantasy-friendly game and ability to do a little of everything. He’s definitely not safe enough for cash, and the Lakers could get run out of their own building quickly tonight, but I think he’s definitely worth a shot in GPP formats.

Kyle Kuzma (7500)

Kuzma is the safest Laker play and simultaneously the one with the highest ceiling as well. He’s scored 32 real-life points in back to back games and sports a 32% usage rate with Ball, Rondo, and LeBron off the floor. He’s going to have to shoulder the load for the Lakers tonight and lately, he’s been up to the challenge. The number of shots he will put up tonight should give him a high enough floor and ceiling to be considered in both cash and GPP formats.

D’Angelo Russell (7900)

I’ll be the first to tell you that unlike Brian Tulloch, I am not a D’Angelo Russell guy. I’m a big time Spencer Dinwiddie fanboy and I usually prefer to play the cheaper Dinwiddie off the bench for more point-per-dollar upside. But I simply can’t ignore the fact that D-Lo is putting up these massive 50-burgers lately. I watched him play the other night and he looked really confident out there. Not just in his shooting, but in his ability to find open teammates for good looks.

The Nets are playing well and it’s no coincidence that their young star is too. I love the pace-up spot here against the Kings and the spread makes me want to stack a few pieces from both sides of this game.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Main Slate Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Shelvin Mack (4400)

I’m going to keep riding Mack and his hot hand off the Memphis bench. He’s playing well and getting enough minutes to make value.

Josh Hart (4900)

Hart could get the start tomorrow at point guard for the Lakers and we know he has the ability to fill up a stat sheet if he’s going to get enough minutes and opportunities.

Dwayne Wade (5000)

Wade has been in vintage form lately, posting 31 and 32 FD points in back to back games. He’s got upside for 6-7x with his usage off the bench against Boston tonight.

Lance Stephenson (3500)

Lance is min-priced and played 25 minutes the other night against Houston with Ball going down in the third quarter.  He could start at the point tonight, or at least run the point for long stretches of the game.

Omri Casspi (4500)

I’m still staying on Casspi even after a dud on Saturday. The minutes and shots were still there he just didn’t make enough of them.

DeMarcus Cousins (5100)

I know, I know…it’s UNDER 5k for value plays but DMC is close enough. He’s been cleared for 20 minutes tonight and he produced 30 FD points in only 15 minutes in his debut…

Taurean Prince (4100)

Prince finally had his minutes restriction taken off and played 23 minutes against the Celtics, putting up 27 FD points. His role should only continue to increase as he begins to reclaim his role in the Hawks offense.

Ivica Zubac (4300)

The Lakers are playing all three centers right now, which is really annoying. It’s clear that Zubac is the best offensive threat of any of them and he continues to put up solid numbers when he gets in the game. Hopefully they will soon bench Tyson Chandler and let Zubac and McGee handle the 5-spot.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re new to the Breakdown, this is where I try to explain my roster construction for the slate and give a sample lineup based on how I am looking to approach it.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s slate is a little less “stars and scrubs” than usual, though as long as we have to cram in Harden at 14k it’s going to favor paying down in several spots. You may have noticed there’s a lot of sub 5k value plays today and I will continue to pepper them into lineups around my core of studs.

Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. I’m plugging in my cash game core and then seeing which high floor plays I can fit in around them with the available value left in other positions.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. There’s still a lot of injury information we need before 7:00 PM when lineups lock.

PG: Shelvin Mack (4400)
PG: D.J. Augustin (4900)
SG: Dwayne Wade (5000)
SG: James Harden (14000)
SF: Nikola Mirotic (6100)
SF: Lance Stephenson (3500)
PF: Jayson Tatum (6300)
PF: Kyle Kuzma (7500)
C: Julius Randle (8200)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!