Main DraftKings NBA Picks January 21: Rated E for Embiid

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – OCTOBER 29: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves reacts as referee Aaron Smith #51 calls him for a loose ball foul against the Los Angeles Lakers during the fourth quarter of the game on October 29, 2018 at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Lakers 124-120. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Main DraftKings NBA Picks January 21: Rated E for Embiid

DraftKings took a Ginsu to the 10 game DraftKings NBA slate in celebration of Martin Luther King Jr. day. The early game between the Thunder and Knicks is only available in showdown mode. We then have a five game early slate, and a four game “main” slate that starts at 6pm Eastern. There is no full day slate, so this is what we get. Let’s make the most of it! This will focus on the five game early slate.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($9,400): Curry struggled in the first game against the Lakers, but this time he wont have to deal with Lonzo Ball, who is going to be out at least a month. Curry has at least 45 DraftKings points in 12 straight games now. Yeah, not quite Harden, but you can find enough value to cram both in your lineups and reap the rewards.

Kyrie Irving ($9,000): I usually don’t make it a point to run guards out there against Miami, but I might have to make an exception here. Irving has four straight games of more than 45 DraftKings points. He put up 39 in the first meeting with the Heat, so expecting him over 5x value again is not out of line.

Honorable Mention:

Damian Lillard ($8,300): I definitely had Lillard on my fade list, but with his price this low, I may have to reconsider. Lillard has five straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points. With Utah’s guard corps still beat up, I can see Lillard blowing past 40 again with relative ease.

Justise Winslow ($6,300): I usually make it a point not to target Boston either, but Winslow racked up 40.25 DraftKings points against them the first time around. Winslow is priced right here, and is in line for another strong run against Boston. That said, I think we can probably do better than someone who is going to be guarded by Smart.

Dark Horses:

Josh Hart ($5,200): Hart is the most likely to start at the point with Ball and Rondo out. There were initial reports that LeBron James would return tonight, but that also appears unlikely. That opens up a whole new problem here: a blowout. The Lakers are so beaten up that guys like Hart and Stephenson are probably going to get good run no matter what. That said, I trust Stephenson a lot more to get his value than the inconsistent Hart.

T.J. McConnell ($3,900): McConnell continues to put up decent numbers, but I’m not all that crazy about him tonight unless Jimmy Butler ends up sitting. If Butler is out, McConnell is going to get really good run off the bench. If Butler plays, I don’t really want to drop down this far. There is too much volatility with McConnell off the bench.

Brandon Knight ($3,200): You will have to keep an eye on the injury report if you want to throw this dart, but Knight had a strong run in his only healthy game with Paul and Gordon out. Gordon is back, but Knight outplayed Austin Rivers, and could get a chance to here as well. Keep an ear to the ground for any updates about Knight’s availability and playing time. If he is going to play 25 minutes or so, Knight can hit value.

My pick: N/A

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 20: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts to his three pointer late in the game leading to a 124-115 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on October 20, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($13,200): Okay, so, if you guys fade Harden at this point, there’s nothing I can do for you. That’s six straight games of more than 70 DraftKings points. Maybe Philly holds him to around 60. I sure as hell wont be the one betting on it. Give me all the Harden again. I haven’t faded him since Paul went down, and I wont start now.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,200): Mitchell was finally held under 40 DraftKings points with Exum, Rubio, and Neto out. Rubio is the only one that may return tonight. Even if he does tonight, I still want Mitchell. Rubio likely wouldn’t play a lot of minutes anyway, so Mitchell is still going to run the offense for a large part of this game.

Honorable Mention:

Brandon Ingram ($6,900): Ingram struggled in the first game against the Warriors, but his usage rate is going to be more than triple what it was in the first meeting with Ball, Rondo, and LeBron all out. I’m not saying that Ingram is going to triple his 19 DraftKings point output against the Lakers the first time around, but there is no reason he can’t flirt with 40 tonight.

J.J. Redick ($5,700): Redick becomes one of my favorite plays if Butler is out. If Butler plays, I still don’t mind Redick for the price. He has proven time and again that he can hit value with Philly at full strength. However, it does rob Redick of any upside.

Dark Horses:

Dwyane Wade ($4,900): Wade has 72 DraftKings points over the last two games. I don’t really like the matchup with Boston, but so long as Wade is doing kegstands from the fountain of youth, he is worth a look. You can’t expect huge numbers from Wade, but if he hits 30 again for this price, I doubt any of us would be disappointed.

Lance Stephenson ($4,000): I’m not sure that Stephenson is going to start with both Ball and Rondo out, but he is definitely going to get a lot of run here. Stephenson put up 26 DraftKings points in 25 minutes on Saturday after Ball left the game. The price on Stephenson is way too low right now. That will change at some point, but we can at least ride the huge value for one or two games.

My pick: Stephenson(PG), Harden(SG)

OAKLAND, CA – OCTOBER 25: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors shoots and gets fouled by Jonathon Simmons #17 of the San Antonio Spurs during the third quarter in an NBA basketball game at ORACLE Arena on October 25, 2016 Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Durant ($9,500): I’m not going to sit here and tell you that the Warriors are bad plays because that’s simply not true. The only one I’m off of for sure is Klay Thompson. Durant had 43.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Lakers. However, with all of the stars on the slate, I can make a case for fading every Warriors starter. The blowout potential is enormous with the Lakers missing three key components. Durant may make value in just 30 minutes, but there are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense.

Ben Simmons ($8,600): Simmons has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of the last four games, so why is his price so low? I have no idea. Simmons fits nicely in a game stack with Harden, especially if Embiid sits. Even if Embiid plays, I could see using Simmons at this price. This is going to be a pretty fast paced game. Now the trick becomes how to fit these stars in your lineup.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Gordon ($5,900): Gordon didn’t steal any of Harden’s thunder. If anything, he has helped it. Gordon has a whopping 74 DraftKings points in 53 minutes in the two games since his return. This is a really good spot again for Gordon, and his price hasn’t budged one bit. We need to capitalize on that.

Josh Richardson ($5,600): Richardson didn’t miss a beat, putting up 34.75 DraftKings points against Chicago in his return. Richardson was on fire, hitting 10 of his 15 shots, but did little else. That’s a departure from most of Richardson’s lines. If he can combine that efficiency with his usual half dozen rebounds and assists, Richardson could have a really good game. Good luck doing that to Boston though.

Joe Ingles ($5,500): Forwards against Portland. This is a sure fire way to value. Ingles racked up 33.5 DraftKings points on the Blazers in the first meeting, and that was with the Jazz at full strength. His ceiling is considerably higher this time around, but Ingles hasn’t increased his stats at all with Utah’s guards out. Maybe his ceiling isn’t that much higher after all.

Dark Horses:

Royce O’Neale ($4,600): Forwards…..Portland…….must….have….this…..value. O’Neale went nuclear on Cleveland with 43.25 DraftKings points on Friday. He is going to see significant run again regardless of the status of Rubio. I don’t expect another 40, but 30 is likely. That would still net us close to 7x value at this price.

Gerald Green ($4,400): I like Green quite a bit tonight despite James Ennis being back in the lineup. Green has provided 13 made threes over the last three games. This is a good hand to ride while it’s hot, and Green wont set you back much either. He is a strong value play with good upside again tonight. If you must go cheaper, Ennis himself may provide good value.

Andre Iguodala ($3,900): Iggy took it to the Lakers the first time around with 36.75 DraftKings points in 26 minutes the first time around. Iguodala gets good run regardless of whether the game gets out of hand or not. I do see a clear path of 30 minutes for Iguodala tonight, which makes him an outstanding value play.

My pick: Gordon(SF), Green(F), Iguodala(G)

DALLAS, TEXAS – JANUARY 07: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers during a game against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on January 07, 2019 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kyle Kuzma ($7,600): Kuzma has dropped back to back 50’s, and that could happen again. Kuzma is the Lakers offense right now. There is no reason not to use him here, even against the Warriors. Kuzma drawing Draymond does make me a little nervous, but we don’t need 50 out of Kuzma. 45.6 DraftKings points would net us 6x value, so Kuzma still seems really cheap.

Draymond Green ($6,500): Green is one of the better defenders in the league, which gives him a pretty good floor to jump off of. Like I mentioned before, I am nervous of a blowout here. Green only played 25 minutes in the first meeting. There’s a good chance that he is held to that again tonight in which case he has little chance of hitting value.

Honorable Mention:

Jayson Tatum ($6,200): Tatum isn’t all that consistent, but he definitely has the potential to shred Miami. Power forward has been a sore spot for the Heat recently. Boston has a lot of guys to get the ball to, but only Memphis has held Tatum under 25 DraftKings points since January 2nd.

P.J. Tucker ($5,300): Tucker has been a monster manning the five with Capela out. He has 77.25 DraftKings points over a staggering 84 minutes in the last two games. Unless Tucker passes out from exhaustion, he is going to get a lot of run again tonight. I like this a lot more if Embiid sits, but Tucker is still going to get significant run here.

Dark Horses:

Kevon Looney ($3,900): With Boogie only slated to see 20 minutes, that leaves about 28 minutes open for Looney. He played 27 in the first meeting with the Lakers and put up 20.75 DraftKings points in that game. I see Looney as a decent value pick here, but the upside is in jeopardy with Cousins back.

Jake Layman ($3,700): Layman has 52.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. I’m not sure how much the return of Harkless is going to affect this, but with the way Layman has played lately, I think Portland has to keep playing him, right? If so, Layman is going to be a solid value pick.

My pick: Looney(PF)

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 10: DeMarcus Cousins #0 of the Golden State Warriors attends a shootaround ahead of the team’s preseason game against the Los Angeles Lakers at T-Mobile Arena on October 10, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /

Best Bet:

Joel Embiid ($10,100): My gut tells me that Embiid is going to play in this game. If he does, this is going to be total and complete domination of the Houston front. We saw Jarrett Allen rough up the Rockets a couple of games ago. This is a situation where Embiid could have a 25/25 game if he is fine to play his whole compliment of minutes. This is going to be like Barkley vs. Barney on Saturday Night Live, except we get to reap the DraftKings points from this one.

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Honorable Mention:

DeMarcus Cousins ($5,700): The Warriors have said Cousins is going to play about 20 minutes tonight. He needs 28.5 DraftKings points for 5x value. However, I’m not going to bet against this considering Boogie destroyed the Clippers for 31 DraftKings points in just 15 minutes in his first action of the season.

Javale McGee ($4,700): McGee will get his first crack at his former team here. McGee only played 16 minutes against the Rockets on Saturday, but he racked up 14 rebounds and 12 points in that short amount of time. You wont see this kind of total out of McGee tonight, but he could be a solid value none the less.

Dark Horses:

Ivica Zubac ($4,500): Zubac is seeing a large enough share of the minutes for us to take notice in DFS. This isn’t really a place to attack the Warriors, but I do want Zubac because when the Lakers are down by 30 in the fourth, Zubac is going to clean up all of that garbage!

Bam Adebayo ($4,200): Bam put up an impressive 32.25 DraftKings points in 26 minutes in the first meeting with Boston. The Heat are consciously limiting Whiteside’s minutes, and Bam has been the one reaping the rewards. He is a strong value pick tonight.

My pick: Embiid(C), Zubac(UTIL)

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