Fantasy Basketball: NBA Draftkings Top Salary Value Plays 1/21/19

Welcome back guys! Hope you had a great weekend and enjoyed the exciting NFL Playoffs match-ups on Sunday! We’re kicking our Monday off with a split slate on NBA Draftkings! The early slate has 5 games and the main slate as 4 games! We will be covering the Main Afternoon slate but don’t worry, we have a few articles covering the early slate also. Don’t miss out on those! Now lets dive into this slate and find out our Top Salary Value plays!

NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown

So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value.

For example, the other night Russell Westbrookwas priced at $10,900 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 54.50 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sadly, he did not. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.

Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.

Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 4 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

Steph Curry vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: $9,400 – Needs to score 47 fantasy points or more to exceed value (61.10 for 6.5x)

We’re in store for a great guard depth tonight as we get Steph Curry and James Harden! Obviously the play is to not fade James Harden but if you do, Curry is up next. Curry is averaging the usual, 29 points with 5 rebounds and 5 assist while averaging around 34 minutes per game. His usage rate is still near the same at 31%. He is averaging 48 fantasy points per game and 1.4 fantasy points per minute. He has returned value in two of his past five games, scoring 74.5 and 57.3 fantasy points. The last time these two teams faced off though, Curry only scored a sad 27.5 fantasy points. But this one may be different.

Tonight, the Warriors get to face a Los Angeles Lakers team that are without Lebron James and Lonzo Ball, making their defense a little more weaker. But the Warriors have finally brought DeMarcus Cousins back, making the Thanos gauntlet complete. The Lakers are allowing point guards to average 21 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. With the subtraction of Lonzo Ball tonight, Curry should easily exceed his 5x value.

Other Top Tier Options

Ben Simmons vs. Houston Rockets

Salary: $8,600 – Needs to score 43 fantasy points or more to exceed value

It’s tough to gauge Ben Simmons who is averaging 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assist this season. He had a nice streak going of returning value but hit a snag versus the Indiana Pacers, only scoring 34 fantasy points. He did bounce back Saturday with 52.8 fantasy points though. He is facing a Houston Rockets defense that is allowing point guards to average 21 points, 7 assist, and 5 rebounds per game. With Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid on the court, Simmons is only averaging a 21% usage rate. But always be on the look out for last minute news with the 76ers as they always like to surprise at lock time.

Low Tier Option

Lance Stephenson vs. Golden State Warriors

Salary: $4,000 – Needs to score 20 fantasy points or more to exceed value

With the Los Angeles Lakers already announcing Lonzo Ball out for the next 4-6 weeks, we will see some new additions to the point guard starting position. With it being up in the air with Josh Hart and possible Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Lance Stephenson should see a bump in usage. Stephenson has a usage rate of 21% on the season and is averaging just 9 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assist on 24 minutes. Stephenson has a very low ceiling tonight and just needs to hit 20 fantasy points to return his value. Against the Rockets on Saturday, Stephenson played 25 minutes and averaged a little over a fantasy point a minute, scoring 26 fantasy points. Easily a nice value play tonight.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

James Harden vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Salary: $13,200 – Needs to score 66 fantasy points or more to exceed value (85.80 for 6.5x)

NO FADE ALERT ONCE AGAIN! Look, James Harden is something else right now even with the addition of Eric Gordan coming back. We thought in his last game versus the Los Angeles Lakers that he was flopping but the man finished with 78 fantasy points. Almost breaking the 40% usage rate mark, Harden is averaging 36 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds on 37 minutes per game. He’s averaging almost 1.7 fantasy points a minute! He also hasn’t hit under 70 fantasy points in his past 6 games.

James Harden gets to face a Philadelphia 76ers defense that is allowing opposing shooting guards to average 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assist. But like I always say with James Harden, just throw that stat-line out the window for now. Who knows what or how they’ll contain this monster but I would not fade once again.

Other Top Tier Options

Donovan Mitchell vs. Portland Trailblazers

Salary: $8,200 – Needs to score 41 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Another terror on the slate is Donovan Mitchell who has been on something like a hot streak. He has a below par game on Friday versus the Cleveland Cavaliers, scoring just 36.5 fantasy points but had a weekend break to get refresh. He is currently averaging 22 points, 4 assist, and 4 rebounds with a usage rate of 30%. He gets to face a Portland Trailblazers defense that is allowing shooting guards to average 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Mitchell has had a hit and miss outing versus the Trailblazers where in the first game, he scored 3 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assist. But in the second game, just four days apart, he recorded 19 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assist. If you don’t go the Harden route, go the Mitchell route.

Low Tier Option

Klay Thompson vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: $6,400 – Needs to score 32 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Now this isn’t the most “low tier option” play but it’s one that you can’t avoid. Averaging 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist at a usage rate of 26%. With no Lonzo Ball or Lebron James plus the Warriors addition of DeMarcus Cousins, Klay should benefit greatly tonight. All of the Warriors will. The Los Angeles Lakers are allowing shooting guards to average 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. But Thompson didn’t have the best outing in their first match-up as he only recorded 5 points, 3 assist, and 2 rebounds, scoring just11.5 fantasy points. I would not expect the same outcome tonight though.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

Kevin Durant vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: $9,500 – Needs to score 47.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (61.75 for 6.5x)

It may just be a Stack-A-Warrior slate tonight as Kevin Durant is in play also! Durant gets to face “bigs” that won’t be able to defend him as the Los Angeles Lakers are allowing small forwards to average 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assist per game. On the offensive ends of things, Kevin Durant is averaging 28 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assist while averaging around 35 minutes with a usage rate of 30%. Just like most Warriors, his usage rate decreases slightly with DeMarcus Cousins back on the court but honestly, that isn’t a bad thing.

In the past five games, Durant has only returned value in three of those, scoring 50.3, 47, and 63.3 fantasy points. He is averaging 50.2 fantasy points a game and 1.4 fantasy points per minute. He did miss value when the two faced off on Christmas, he only scored 43.3 fantasy points in 37 minutes. With the injuries on the Lakers team and Boogie being back, Kevin Durant is like the rest of the Warriors and should improve on the last games performance.

Other Top Tier Options

Kyle Kuzma vs. Golden State Warriors

Salary: $7,600 – Needs to score 38 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Kyle Kuzma has been showing his worth very well without Lebron James on the court and could potentially be the next star in line. He is averaging 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assist with a usage rate of 24%. He only has a minor difference in usage rate with or without Lebron James but sees an increase from 22% to 25% without Lonzo Ball. The Golden State Warriors are allowing opposing small forwards to average 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Kuzma did only hit 28.5 fantasy points in the Christmas match-up but remember that was a healthy Lakers team so this is a whole new scenario that could greatly benefit him.

Low Tier Option

Joe Ingles vs. Portland Trailblazers

Salary: $5,500 – Needs to score 27.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Somewhat on a cold streak, this could be the match-up where Joe Ingles finally bounces back. In his past two games he has only scored 21 and 20.8 fantasy points while one was versus the Cleveland Cavaliers. He has a usage rate of 18% while averaging 12 points, 5 assist, and 4 rebounds. It shows how weak this Portland Trailblazers team is versus small forwards as Ingles was able to score 34.3 and 32.3 fantasy points, exceeding his value greatly those nights. The Trailblazers are allowing small forwards to average 23 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist per game and it shows. We’re hoping for a third time is the charm for Joe Ingles to destroy his low value once again tonight.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

Jayson Tatum vs. Miami Heat

Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Now there are multiple top plays that can be played at the small forward and power forward position so we’re keeping this position small tonight. This season, Jayson Tatum is averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and about 2 assist per game while averaging 31 minutes. With a usage rate of 22%, Tatum and the Celtics should be running at full health tonight. They get to face a Maimi Heat team that is allowing power forwards to average 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. The two teams also faced off on January 10th where Tatum under-performed and only scored 26 fantasy points, only missing his value by 4. With a similar price tag, he should be able to meet or even exceed value tonight.

In the past five games, Jayson Tatum has returned value in three of those, scoring 35.8, 35, and 54.3 fantasy points. There isn’t a huge sample size to go off of so be cautious with this play at the power forward position.

Low Tier Option

P.J. Tucker vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Salary: $5,300 – Needs to score 26.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

A man who has been heating up, may not go unnoticed tonight on this short slate. P.J. Tucker has had back to back huge games and a huge part of that may be due to Clint Capela being out. In those two games, Tucker has scored 42.5 and 34.8 fantasy points, exceed value in both games easily. Without Capela being on the court, Tucker’s usage rate goes from 10% to 12% which isn’t impressive but it is worth noting. He’s only averaging 8 points and 6 rebounds while playing near 35 minutes per game, another downside. Tucker is only averaging 22 fantasy points per game and .62 fantasy points per minute.

This Philadelphia 76ers team is allowing power forwards to average 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. But since the two have yet to face off this season, we just have the small sample size of 12 games to off of. In those 12 games, P.J. Tucker is averaging 7 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assist versus them. The main thing to watch here tonight is the starting line-up and if Tucker’s minutes will stay near the same as they have been recently.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

DeMarcus Cousins vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: $5,700 – Needs to score 28.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

I was truly upset seeing that DeMarcus Cousins wasn’t 100% owned in his first game back and if he isn’t tonight, I’ll riot. Cousins played just 15 minutes against the Clippers before fouling out in true Boogie fashion but he scored 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assist! With just a $200 price increase and with a minute restriction of just 20 minutes tonight, do not pass him up versus this weak Los Angeles Lakers team! He can easily exceed the 5x value and potentially push the 6.5x value of just 37 fantasy points.

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The Los Angeles Lakers are allowing centers to average 25 points, 18 rebounds, and 4 assist per game this season and have no true match for DeMarcus Cousins. With no true games to go off since Boogie was dealing with his injury, we’ll dig into his history. In 22 games against the Los Angeles Lakers, Cousins is averaging 21 points, 11 rebounds and 3 assist. The final note is that DeMarcus Cousins is playing with a huge chip on his shoulder and since he couldn’t land a deal with the Lakers during the off-season, he may shut their franchise down tonight.

Other Top Tier Options

Jufu Nurkic vs. Utah Jazz

Salary: $7,900 – Needs to score 39.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Now back to the true salary priced guys, Jusuf Nurkic gets to face the Utah Jazz who aren’t the best at defending centers. On the season, Nurkic is averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist with a usage rate of 24%. He is averaging 37.4 fantasy points per game and averaging 1.4 fantasy points a minute. But just like Donovan Mitchell in their previous match-up against the Utah Jazz, Nurkic only scored 26 fantasy points, missing value by 4.5 fantasy points. But this Utah Jazz team allows centers to average 21 points, 14 rebounds and 4 assist per game. In 15 games against Rudy Gobart, Nurkic also just averages 8 points and 6 rebounds which is nothing to be too excited about. If you don’t go DeMarcus Cousins, which is dumb, then Nurkic is the next one up but at a higher priced, especially if Joel Embiid is out.

Low Tier Option

Nene Hilario vs. Philadelphia 76ers (*Risk Play | Watch News)

Salary: $3,300 – Needs to 16.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

This is a huge risk play and you should watch for Houston Rockets news and their starting line-up, Nene Hilario may be in play depending on the route the team goes. Hilario has been nothing but disappointment this season and even against the Los Angeles Lakers, he couldn’t return value, scoring just 14.5 fantasy points in 20 minutes. He is averaging 4 points and 3 assist per game. If Nene gets the starting nod tonight and you want to save salary, take the major risk and throw him in there.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all of your DFS needs. We have you covered all day in the NBA!