Underdog NBA Picks of the Day: Monday, January 20th

Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my basketball picks. This recurring series is going to be dedicated to finding those diamond in the rough NCAA basketball or NBA picks (money lines mostly) that pay a nice return but come with heavy risk. I mean, who wants to bet on the favorite anyways?

With such a weak slate of NCAA underdogs worth betting on (even with the points), in today’s installment we’re going to be taking a look at the NBA to find some more value as far as potential upsets. With 11 games on deck for tonight, there is no shortage of quality underdogs worth considering.

Underdog NBA Picks:

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics – 6:00 pm ET

These two teams last matched up about two weeks ago during the middle of the Celtics mini-slump. Boston now looks like a completely different team whereas Miami has continued their streaky performances on the year.

After dropping 3 straight games (including one to these very Heat), the Celtics responded in kind with a 3 game win streak. Behind the strong and revitalized play of Kyrie Irving, the Celtics are once again a fearsome bunch. Although supremely deep and talented, the Celtics rely heavily on Kyrie to get everyone rolling and a good night for him usually means strong performances from the team as a whole.

The Heat have at times looked the part of an Eastern Conference contender while other times looking like a lottery team. Still young and inexperienced, the Heat are rarely the same team from night to night. However, since giving the keys to the offense to forward Justice Winslow, the Heat have seen a bit more consistent offensive production compared to earlier on in the season.

Although on paper the Celtics are the better team and they are playing at home, the Celtics have a bad tendency to play to the level of their opponents. Add in the fact that the Heat are actually a better road team than they are at home and you have the makings of a potential upset in Boston.

Pick: Miami Heat (+300)

Houston Rockets vs Philadelphia 76ers – 8:00 pm ET

In a matchup between two high-octane offenses, the Houston Rockets take to the road to face the Philadelphia 76ers in an East vs West showdown.

The Rockets come into the matchup limping hard. Still down Chris Paul and Clint Capela, the Rockets have been the James Harden show as of late. While they have dropped a few games to quality opponents, Harden’s historic scoring binge has kept them close or outright won them just about every game. Harden is playing at a nearly unguardable level this game and has shown opposing teams that they only way to beat the Rockets right now is to simply outscore them.

Philadelphia isn’t without their own injury woes either. With Butler questionable for the matchup at the time of this writing and Embiid likely suiting up with a bad back, the Sixers have their own issues to worry about. Simmons has struggled when forced into a primary scorer role and operates much better with the uber-talented big man Embiid as a safety net down low. Butler will be sorely missed but if Embiid cannot go, this matchup starts to look very grim for the Sixers.

If Embiid can’t go, the Rockets should have no excuse to drop this game. Even if Butler and/or Embiid can suit up, Harden is going to go out and get his 40+ points while creating some easy buckets for his teammates. Harden alone makes this one of the better underdog NBA picks on the day. Don’t expect his hot streak to slow down and even if the Sixers are fully armed with both Embiid and Butler, as his play alone is capable of keeping the Rockets in a position to take control of the game late.

Pick: Houston Rockets (+180)

Portland Trail Blazers vs Utah Jazz – 9:00 pm ET

The last of our underdog NBA picks comes to us in the second to last matchup of the evening. Portland and Utah have met up twice on the season before with the Jazz coming away with the win in both contests.

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The Trail Blazers roll into tonight’s matchup as winners in 7 of their last 10 games. Damian Lillard is the heart and soul of this Blazers squad and with him on the court, they are the most dynamic offensive unit in the league. However, without Lillard on the court, the Blazers fall apart and play some of the worst basketball in the league. His limitless 3 point range opens up countless lanes to the basket and give his teammates some much needed room to work off the ball.

As hot as the Blazers have been, Utah has been even hotter. Since December 15th, the Jazz have turned a new page on the season and have gotten back to playing their elite level defense. Donovan Mitchell returning to form has helped without a doubt, but the monster play of Rudy Gobert has truly breathed life into this Jazz squad. When Gobert is at his best, he essentially eliminates easy buckets at the basket while setting brick-wall screens on the offensive end to give Mitchell room to work.

Despite the recent roll the Jazz are on, Lillard and the Blazers are still an elite unit. Having dropped both games on the season to the Jazz so far, Portland will be looking to make up for those and get one back. While Gobert should make life tough for Lillard and co. attacking the basket, look for the Blazers to unleash a barrage of 3’s and narrowly pull out a win over a very good Jazz team.

Pick: Portland Trail Blazers (TBA)

That’s all for tonight’s underdog NBA Basketball picks. Check back in to Fantasy CPR tomorrow for more underdog picks because nobody likes betting the favorite!