Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks of the Day: Tuesday, January 22nd

Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NBA and NCAA basketball picks.

This recurring series is going to be dedicated to finding those diamond in the rough NCAA basketball picks (money lines mostly) that pay a nice return but come with heavy risk. I mean, who wants to bet on the favorite anyways?

After a day off of college hoops and a foray into the NBA, we’re back in action with more NCAA basketball picks tonight. With seemingly every ranked team dropping a game on the road this weekend, we’re going to hone in on mainly home underdogs (that actually have a chance to win, looking at you Pitt).

NCAA Basketball Picks

Auburn Tigers vs South Carolina Gamecocks – 6:30pm ET

The Auburn Tigers head on the road to face down the South Carolina Gamecocks. One of the better teams in the SEC, the Tigers are coming off a tough loss to the Kentucky Wildcats whereas the Gamecocks dropped their latest match-up to LSU, a surprise front-runner in the SEC so far.

Auburn played a fantastic game against the Kentucky Wildcats despite being the less talented team on paper. Auburn showed the ability to hang tough during the Wildcat’s runs while generating some electric offense of their own.

Bryce Brown in particular has seemingly taken another step in his development as he is more efficient shooting the ball while putting up the best rebounding and assist numbers of his career. Auburn is a very good basketball team and as evidenced by their outing against Kentucky, are have the talent to play with any team on any night.

South Carolina also comes into the match-up off of a loss after steamrolling through their first 4 games in the SEC. While LSU was their first real test in conference play (that they failed), they have looked great against some of the SEC’s weaker programs.

Rumors coming out of South Carolina are that the team is dialed in for the match-up against the ranked Auburn Tigers and are angry following their first SEC defeat. Getting to play in front of a fired up SEC home crowd should help provide a shot in the arm that they will certainly need to beat a deep and talented Auburn squad.

While all signs on paper point to Auburn in this match-up, they left everything out on the court in their last match-up against Kentucky, only to have their hearts ripped out as a game-winning layup clanked off the rim.

They get no favors having to go back on the road and are facing a Gamecock team that by all accounts has this game circled on their calendar. This won’t be a pretty game, but look for the Gamecocks to play some hard-nosed defense and keep this a low-scoring affair.

Pick: South Carolina Gamecocks (+280)

Boise State Broncos vs Air Force Falcons – 9:00pm ET

Both Boise State and Air Force have been inconsistent in conference play so far with Boise State going 3-2 and Air Force coming in at 2-4.

Boise State comes into the matchup on the heels of two straight losses to the prides of the MWC, Nevada and Fresno State. The Broncos are undoubtedly in a down year despite owning one of the more veteran rosters in the MWC with most of their key contributors being in their 3rd or 4th year of eligibility.

The Broncos don’t necessarily have a true offensive weapon to lean on and instead have to rely on unselfish and team-first basketball. Despite getting a decent number of open looks due to moving the ball, the broncos have struggled to knock down their open looks and are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the nation.

Their team 3 point percentage is a bit deceiving as they don’t take a ton and rely almost exclusively on lone sharpshooter, Junior Justinian Jessup, to knock the deep ball down.

Meanwhile, Air Force comes in with a considerably younger squad with only one senior on the squad. Similar to Boise State, Air Force isn’t going to beat you using one individual player. Rather, they also employ an unselfish brand of basketball.

However, they are, on the whole, a much better shooting team from deep compared to the Broncos. Despite shooting as a unit a slightly lower percentage from deep (compared to the Broncos), the Falcons offer 3 players who shoot above 40% from deep, giving them more bodies to help spread the floor.

Although Air Force struggles to attract the same level of talent that their conference foes have access to, they are a well-coached team that tries to play a slow and methodical style of basketball in order to help level the playing field.

While the talent is too much to overcome against teams like Nevada or Fresno State, Boise State is in a down year and plays nearly an identical style of basketball to Air Force. Boise State has struggled on the road this season and expect those struggles to continue.

Pick: Air Force Falcons (+165)

New Mexico Lobos vs UNLV Runnin’ Rebels – 10:00pm ET

Our lone road underdog of the evening, New Mexico State and UNLV do battle for the second time on the year. While UNLV took down the Lobos in New Mexico with relative ease last time around, that shouldn’t be the case this time around.

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New Mexico State has been one of the streakiest teams in the nation this year. A well-rounded roster from top to bottom, the Lobos have the size to bang with bigger teams to go with an experienced, lights-out shooting guard in Anthony Mathis.

However, on many nights they struggle to put everything together. When at their best however, they are one of the most dangerous teams in the nation and are the only team to hand the Nevada Wolfpack a loss.

The Lobos are .500 on both the road and at home this year, so taking this match-up away from home shouldn’t negatively impact them all that much. If the Lobos can come out and establish the 3-ball and their presence on the glass, they should be able to give UNLV fits.

UNLV shot the cover off the basketball from deep in the last meeting between the two teams. Hitting the 3 at nearly 47% in the match-up, the Rebels cannot and should not be expected to repeat that sort of performance.

While they have a few players that CAN knock down the deep ball, they only have one player, Freshman Joel Ntambwe, who knocks them down at above a 40% clip on the year. UNLV is a big and athletic squad who typically looks to wear down opponents inside and work the boards hard.

Although UNLV came out on top in the last matchup and are on the road, I still like the Lobos to win this one outright. In the first matchup, the Rebels caught the Lobos on the heels of a massive win over Nevada.

Frankly, the Lobos were most likely overlooking a middle of the road Rebel unit. This time around, we should see far fewer 3’s from UNLV and a much closer game that is decided down low. In a back and forth war, give me the team with the capability to take down one of the best teams in the college basketball world any day of the week.

Pick: New Mexico Lobos (+205)

Next. NBA DFS Top Plays and Fades - Tuesday, January 22. dark

That’s all for tonight’s underdog NCAA Basketball picks. Check back in to Fantasy CPR tomorrow for more underdog picks because nobody likes betting the favorite!