DraftKings NBA Picks January 23: Ride the value up front

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 10: Yogi Ferrell #3 of the Sacramento Kings reacts after he made a shot and he was fouled during their game against the Detroit Pistons at Golden 1 Center on January 10, 2019 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 23: Ride the value up front

We have a big ten games slate for our DraftKings NBA slate tonight. Surprisingly, only three players hit five figures, and one of them is out. Are the other two worth playing, or is there better value further down the slate? Someone is playing the Nets, and Kawhi will play tonight, so maybe we have a reason to go with a more balanced build.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kyrie Irving ($9,400): This is a great matchup for Kyrie, but there is a significant blowout risk here. The Celtics blew out the Cavs the first time around. Irving still picked up 41.5 DraftKings points in just 27 minutes. The chances of him doing that again in so little minutes are pretty slim. On a ten game slate, I see no reason to chase this. However, if this game stays close, Kyrie has a legitimate shot at 60, a mark he has hit three times in the last four games.

Kemba Walker ($8,100): Walker isn’t getting a lot of help from his teammates, which is limiting his value. Defenses are keying on him, but Kemba is still scoring in the 20’s almost every game. His price is down to the point where I don’t mind using him here against Memphis. Conley isn’t a great defender anymore, and Walker should be able to create on drives with Anderson out and everything about Gasol up in the air.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Lowry ($7,200): I absolutely hate this matchup for Lowry, but with Kawhi Leonard set to rest again, it’s hard to ignore Lowry’s usage rate. I tend to think that Ibaka and Siakam are the ones there are going to benefit in this game, but Lowry is still good for a boost in value. The good thing is that Lowry had 34.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Indiana. Oladipo was out, so I doubt Lowry goes much higher than that mark.

Jamal Murray ($7,100): Even with the Denver guards getting healthy, Murray has still put up between 32 and 38 DraftKings points in every game for the last seven games. That makes him a strong cash game play right now, but I don’t know that he has the GPP upside we want. Murray is still a favored spot in this offense, but he can defer to the other shooters that Denver has as well. That puts a cap on the upside, but Murray is still a solid play.

Kris Dunn ($6,300): This takes a bit of a leap of faith. Dunn went over 30 DraftKings points for the first time since January 12th on Monday, but that was against Cleveland. The good news is that Atlanta’s guard defense is even worse than the Cavs. I plan on running the Bulls backcourt in at least one lineup tonight. It could pay off big time!

Dark Horses:

D.J. Augustin ($4,800): Augustin has five straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. Don’t laugh. He has had plenty of games under that mark, as you know if you have used him at all this year. One of those was against Brooklyn, whom he gets a crack at again tonight. Augustin doesn’t have much for upside since he hasn’t topped 30 since January 9th, but value picks are pretty slim tonight. If you need value, you can do worse than Augustin.

Shabazz Napier ($3,900): Napier put up 27 DraftKings points in just 18 minutes against the Magic on Friday. That kind of per minute production is what keeps landing him in DFS lineups. Just know that the upside isn’t that great. That said, Napier is $900 less than Augustin, yet outscored him by about four points in that one. He also outscored Dinwiddie, for that matter.

Cameron Payne ($3,700): Running guards out there against Boston is a good way to lose your money, but hear me out: Payne has played at least 20 minutes in four straight games, and has at least 20 DraftKings points in three of those. Payne’s price is still low enough that we can see really good return here.

My pick: Napier(PG)

DALLAS, TX – JANUARY 24: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts after scoring against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on January 24, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($13,400): Harden was still faded by 52% of you on Monday, and you got lucky. He “only” hit 57 DraftKIngs points through three quarters in a blowout loss. The Knicks aren’t going to blow out the Rockets or vice versa. Paul is nearing a return, but Harden is still the one man gang here against a team that really has no chance at guarding him. Sign me up!

Jrue Holiday ($8,600): Holiday usually isn’t one of my priority spots to build around, so he often winds up on the cutting room floor of my lineups. However, Holiday put up 55.25 DraftKings points against Detroit the first time around. That was with Payton out, so I don’t think he hits that mark again, but Holiday has cracked the 45 point mark four times in the last five games. This is a good matchup for Holiday, and he should extend that streak.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,500): Mitchell put up a big game against Portland on Monday even with Rubio back in the fold. He went for 53.25 DraftKinsg points after a disappointing outing against Cleveland on Friday. Denver isn’t a great spot, but Mitchell’s price is pretty low for what he is capable of. I want to make sure that the slow start truly is behind him, so I could see fading Mitchell tonight with other great options available, but the way he is going right now, he could drop another 50.

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell ($8,000): Orlando’s normally strong guard defense got torched by Russell on Friday night for 58.5 DraftKings points. He followed that up with 55.5 against the Kings in just 32 minutes on Monday. Russell looks like a strong play again at what could be low ownership. I’ll be honest. The matchup scares me a little just like it did the first time. However, with the way Russell is playing right now, it may not matter.

Zach LaVine ($6,900): LaVine racked up 44.75 DraftKings points on the Hawks earlier this year, but don’t bank on that happening again with Dunn in the fold. LaVine’s shooting got back on track over the weekend, so I’m willing to use him at this price. This game should stay close, and Atlanta’s perimeter defense is terrible. I don’t know that I trust Dunn yet, but I do LaVine.

Eric Gordon ($5,700): Gordon is about the only accomplished scorer on the court besides Harden, so he’s worth a long look here. Especially when he’s going against a team that really doesn’t defend the wing well. There are a few Houston sharpshooters that you could throw out there tonight, but Gordon is easily the safest one.

Dark Horses:

Dwyane Wade ($4,800): Wade’s recent hot streak has contributed to the lower minutes of Winslow, but so has the return of Waiters. I’m really nervous about all the guards in Miami but Wade now has 92.5 DraftKings points over the last three games while playing about half the game. Wade had his best game of the season against the Clippers earlier this year, exploding for 46.5 DraftKings points on them. I do want some kind of Miami exposure against this weak backcourt, and Wade is one of the safer places to get it.

Allonzo Trier ($3,900): Want to play guard roulette? David Fizdale is (again). Mudiay’s minutes were slashed in half and Trier was given 30 minutes for the first time since November 23rd. He responded with 37.5 DraftKings points. That SHOULD mean more run for Trier tonight, but Fizdale has made a living destroying DFS lineups this year. Caveat emptor, my friends. And hey, if you don’t trust this, there is always Avery Bradley for the same price.

T.J. McConnell ($3,900): McConnell is going to be chalk if Ben Simmons ends up being held out, and with good reason. However, I have no problems rolling with McConnell even if Simmons starts. First off, it’s a respiratory infection, so there is a good chance that Simmons will have to rest more than normal. Second, McConnell has fared well in few minutes all year. He’s a good value play with some sneaky upside here.

My pick: Harden(SG), Gordon(G)

CLEVELAND, OH – JANUARY 18: Evan Fournier #10 of the Orlando Magic lays one in against Isaiah Thomas #3 of the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena on January 18, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Evan Fournier ($6,100): Yes, small forward is this big of a mess. There are several others eligible here, but Fournier may be the play. He put up 38 against the Nets on Friday, and picked up 43.25 on Atlanta on Monday. Fournier has been much better over the last two weeks anyway. He’s starting to grow on me here.

Josh Richardson ($6,100): You could have Winslow or Waiters too I suppose, but Richardson is the better volume scorer. He is also playing more minutes than anyone else on this team with the possible exception of Winslow. I like the volume and love the matchup, so I have no issue going with JRich tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,200): Bojan has 72.5 DraftKings points in the two games against Toronto so far. While the Raptors have dedicated their energy to shutting down Oladipo and Turner, Bogie has been firing away from the floor and hitting a lot of shots. The same thing should be true here, making Bogdanovic a strong mid range option.

Reggie Bullock ($4,500): Bullock is back on my radar again because the minutes aren’t going anywhere. Bullock came up short against the Kings of all teams, but he has been at or well above 5x value in every other game in January. That’s not going to change against New Orleans, who gives out points like candy on Halloween.

Dion Waiters ($4,300): I was a game early trying to jump on Waiters. Over the last two games, Waiters has 56.5 DraftKings points in just 48 minutes. The Heat aren’t going to run him much longer than that anytime soon since he missed nearly a year, but Waiters has proven that he can be a nice value source for the price. The upside is certainly capped at 25 minutes per game. Waiters should still wind up in the high 20’s for the floor.

Dark Horses:

Chandler Hutchison ($3,800): Hutchison continues to be one of my favorite value plays because he’s a rookie on a young team. The chances are going to be there. There isn’t a lot of room for shots around the rest of the floor with the two dominant guards, but Hutchison has managed to hit value in all but one game since taking over the starting gig. He isn’t going to miss against Atlanta either.

Justin Holiday ($3,700): Holiday has now played at least 30 minutes in three straight games filling in for Kyle Anderson. It seems that this is Holiday’s job until someone plays well enough to take it. He doesn’t quite have the upside that he did in Chicago, but with Gasol rumors flying all over the place, that may change. Probably not tonight, but you never know. At the very least, Holiday is going to give you 30 minutes for cheap with decent production.

C.J. Miles ($3,300): All of the Raptors value from last night applies tonight as well with Kawhi on the pine again. Miles has 70.25 DraftKings points over the last three games despite only playing 50 minutes in that span. You could go with Norman Powell, but even is Miles’ limited playing time, he has been outperforming Powell. Save some money and go for Miles.

My pick: Bogdanovic(SF), Miles(F)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 21: Blake Griffin #23 of the Detroit Pistons dribbles the ball against the Washington Wizards in the first half at Capital One Arena on January 21, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Blake Griffin ($9,700): Griffin put up 48.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Pelicans, and that was with Davis in the lineup. What can he do without Davis in the lineup? I shudder to think. Griffin has at least 46 DraftKings points in four straight games, and has put up some big numbers with Drummond out. Drummond was unable to practice yesterday, so he likely wont play tonight either. Those are two very big reasons to like Blake tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,300): Power forward is a sore spot for the Sixers that Aldridge was able to exploit in the first meeting. LMA put up 43 DraftKings points in that one. We have seen Aldridge have a few monster games in January with DeRozan struggling. That slump isn’t over yet. Expect another big game from Aldridge.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris ($7,800): I don’t really like this matchup for Harris, but his usage rate is still pretty high. Harris was atrocious from the floor last night, but he still did enough other things to hit 30. It was still a disappointment. Still, Miami has had issues with power forwards, so Harris is on my radar here. I am a little worried about what the Clipper guards are going to do here. It may not even leave much for Harris!

Nikola Mirotic ($7,000): Mirotic will be starting with Davis out. We have seen him put up big numbers here and there as well, particularly with teams that have trouble on the wings. I’m thinking the Pelicans are going to control the pace and space of this game, which really bodes well for Mirotic. There is going to be a lot of extra scoring to go around with Davis out. Mirotic should see a healthy amount of that.

Aaron Gordon ($6,700): Gordon has been carrying around that questionable tag like a newborn, but he has still been playing anyway. Just like he did against this same Brooklyn team on Friday. Gordon picked up 36.5 DraftKings points in that game in only 30 minutes before exiting stage right with back issues. If Gordon plays a full compliment of minutes, he could flirt with 6x value.

Dark Horses:

Bam Adebayo ($4,600): Bam put up 34 DraftKings points on the Clippers the first time around. There is no reason to think he can’t do it again. The minutes between him and Whiteside are almost identical at this point. Bam put up 29.25 on Boston on Monday. Expect him to be around that range again tonight, which makes Bam a really good value play.

Kenneth Faried ($4,400): Mike D’Antoni lamented that Faried was perfect for their system. If that isn’t a ringing endorsement, I don’t know what is. Faried has the confidence of the coaching staff as evident by his 23 minutes of playing time in his Houston debut. The minutes are only going to go up. Faried isn’t as strong of a value here, but that statement will be proven false very quickly if Faried plays closer to 30 minutes tonight.

My pick: Faried(PF)

DENVER, CO – NOVEMBER 23: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic plays the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on November 23, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($9,800): I know Embiid is tempting, but he has been battling a sore back that gets progressively worse after every game. Eventually they are going to hold him out. It could come against a Spurs team that pestered Embiid into a pedestrian night the first time. Jokic is a much safer bet. He rocked the Jazz for 45 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes in the first meeting. Only the Warriors have held Jokic under that mark since the calendar flipped to 2019.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,300): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS! You know, a team that Vucevic put up 50.25 DraftKings points on last week. Yeah, he’s safer than all of the top priced centers tonight.

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Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($8,400): Randle has put up some big numbers this year with Davis out. He racked up 46.5 DraftKings points against Detroit earlier this season, and that was with Davis and Drummond both in the lineup. He could put up some massive numbers tonight.

Myles Turner ($6,600): Turner put up 42 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes in the first meeting with Toronto. Most of that value was tied to rebounds, a place where Turner has dominated smaller teams. He is a strong value play tonight with very little risk.

Ante Zizic ($6,000): Zizic has at least 30 DraftKings points in every game with Tristan Thompson out. The only issue is that he hasn’t been above 33. That makes it hard to get a lot of value out of him. On the other hand, Al Horford is out for this one, and Boston is getting trashed up front anyway. There is decent upside to be had here.

Dark Horses:

Bobby Portis ($5,800): Portis still isn’t starting, and still isn’t seeing a huge amount of minutes, but the per minute production is elite. If Portis starts seeing 30 minutes per game, he is going to destroy value. As it sits right now, Portis has 92.5 DraftKings points in 71 minutes in the three games since Carter went down. There is good upside here, which turns great if the Bulls turn Portis loose.

Dewayne Dedmon ($5,600): Dedmon put up 41.25 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes against the Bulls earlier this year. The presence of Portis helps, but these two front are going to tear each other up tonight. I want a piece or two of each one of them here and there. It’s pretty tough to rely on the Bulls and Hawks with your bankroll, but there is going to be a lot of DFS goodness in this one. There will also potentially be a lot of busts.

Jahlil Okafor ($4,600): Okafor dropped a 40 bomb on Memphis on Monday in his first start in place of Davis. He was a high draft pick for a reason. Okafor is going to destroy Zaza with Drummond out. He is way too cheap here!

Mitchell Robinson ($3,600): Robinson picked up 23 DraftKings points in just 16 minutes before fouling out on Monday. Robinson’s reputation as a walking foul is earned. However, Robinson can put up a lot of points in very few minutes though. There is immense upside here with Houston so weak on the inside.

My pick: Vucevic(C), Okafor(UTIL)

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