FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 1/23 – Siakam Time

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 1/23

Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. 

I had to take a day off from writing yesterday as my wife and I welcomed our second daughter into the world on Monday. You’ll be happy to know that little Audrey Susan is healthy and happy and at one day old has already learned not to fade James Harden.

My goal when I revamped the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.  When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

I’m trying to take a big picture look at the slate and give you a place to start your research, whether you’re a cash game player, GPP player (or maybe you play both – like me).

Tonight, we are looking at a full ten-game slate so we have plenty of solid options for cash games and a number of different ways to go with our GPP builds.

There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.  Sometimes there are players mentioned in this first look article who get ruled out during the day, or other players emerge as good plays when surprise injury news emerges.

My best advice is to never settle on a lineup too early in the day and be willing to be flexible enough to incorporate the new information that becomes available throughout the day. At the same time, don’t abandon your core plays unless the slate absolutely demands it!

Let’s take a closer look at what tonight’s NBA slate has to offer!

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Ten Game Slate

Injury Report

OUT: Chris Paul, Anthony Davis, Raul Neto, Dante Exum, Goran Dragic,  Allen Crabbe, Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha, Cody Zeller, Kyle Anderson, Kawhi Leonard, Danilo Gallinari, Wendell Carter Jr., Luke Kornet, Larry Nance Jr., Al Horford, Clint Capela, Tristan Thompson, Jonas Valanciunas

Doubtful: Andre Drummond

Questionable: Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Huerter,

Probable: Ish Smith, Garrett Temple, Aaron Gordon

The big news to watch here is the availability of the Sixers guards Butler and Simmons. It sounds like Drummond is not likely to play again tonight although he has yet to be ruled out. We have a bunch of guys already ruled out which means we already have a number of players we should be very interested in tonight that are either backups or starters that should see significant increases in production.

Vegas Info

At the time that I’m writing this we are still missing half of the totals for tonight’s games. That makes some sense considering how many injuries we are dealing with tonight.

There’s some blowout concern in Boston as the Celtics are 16.5 point favorites over my Cleveland Cavs.

The Atlanta-Chicago game draws my eye at first glance. It’s got a solid 221 total and only a two point spread.

The only two teams who are on the second half of back to backs are the Clippers and Raptors.

Make sure you check out the rest of the Vegas lines as they come out today!

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core plays section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to keep your bankroll up, otherwise, a cold week in tournaments will have you running out of funds quickly.

Nikola Mirotic (6700)

Mirotic was in my cash core on Monday and easily hit 6x value as he played 32 minutes against Memphis off the bench and scored 36 FD points. His price only went up 600 dollars and tonight he’ll face the Pistons at home. I think he’s still very underpriced for his skill set and increased role with Anthony Davis out of the lineup.

Pascal Siakam (6700)

Kawhi Leonard is out again tonight for the Raptors and Siakam is the Raptor that I want to lock into cash game lineups as a result. Statistically, Siakam has been a full 2.5 points per game better with Leonard out of the lineup this season (13 game sample) and sees a slight bump in his peripheral stats, too. From a basketball fan’s perspective, I simply love watching this kid play and I think he oozes upside every time he takes the floor.

James Harden (13500)

Harden finally failed to make value on Monday against the Sixers, but only because the Rockets got blown out and he only played 30 minutes. The silver lining here is that his price came down 500 bucks and now he gets to take on the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. Harden and the Rockets are only seven point favorites and with the way they are playing defense I think the Knicks hang around long enough for “the Beard” to get back to his 70+ FD point ways.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Bobby Portis (5400)

I am moving Portis out of the cash game core and into GPP plays for tonight. He was very productive on Monday, but only got 18 minutes on the floor and even at this price that’s just not enough to give him the floor that we need in cash. But obviously Portis has the talent to have a monster game if he does end up with 25-28 minutes. The matchup is certainly solid against a poor defensive team in Atlanta.

Tobias Harris (8000)

Harris didn’t make value on his price last night, but there’s plenty of good reasons to go right back to him tonight. He had some early foul trouble last night and still somehow managed 31 FD points while only making one shot from the field. As long as Gallinari is out, Harris should get a ton of shots in this offense and continue to have more assist opportunities as well. FanDuel moved him to small forward, which is great because it’s traditionally a much weaker position and now we can roster Harris, Mirotic and two PFs.

Jamal Murray (6900)

Murray has been uber-consistent lately, scoring between 33 and 35 FD points in 7 of his last 8 games.  This would normally make you think he’s a solid cash game play, and while he’s probably cash-viable, his streaky shooting is usually better left reserved for GPPs. The price is really what caught my eye here.  This game between Denver and Utah should be a good one and is projected to stay close. I love Murray as a underpriced GPP play as he has the ability to score a ton of his points when his game in on. He’s got a 40-50 point game coming sooner or later and it could be tonight.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats. This is very much the case tonight with both James Harden and Anthony Davis on the slate.

Fred VanVleet (4800)

Van Vleet drew another start last night as the Raptors continue to play small ball with Kawhi Leonard out of the lineup. He has big night with 41 FD points and had gone for 26 and 24 in his previous two starts for the Raptors. He feels like a pretty safe bet for 25 FD points at this price.

Aaron Baynes (3700)

With Horford out, Baynes should draw the start tonight against the Cavs. Even if he’s not likely to play more than 25 minutes, that should be plenty of time to get us 20 FD points are near min-price.

Corey Brewer (3900)

It’s 2019 and Bewer is back in our lives, who would have thought it! He got the start for Jimmy Butler on Monday and played well, scoring 25 FD points in 32 minutes. If Butler is out, Brewer would likely get a chance to start again.

Zaza Pachulia (4200)

With Drummond likely out, Zaza figures to get another start in a pretty prime spot against the Pelicans who will be without Anthony Davis. Zaza had a great first start against the Kings and then struggled to only 11 FD points against the Wizards. He’s not the safest option, but a cheap center with 7x upside if he gets the minutes.

Marco Belinelli (4500)

Bello just continues to do what he does best and that’s score points off the bench for the Spurs. He’s safely hit 20+ FD points in each of his last  games. I am definitely targeting some Spurs players in this pace-up spot against the Sixers.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. You’ll see my cash core plays in there mixed in with just enough of my value plays to make it work. There’s always a few spots left where I may pivot as we get injury news throughout the day, but I am absolutely locking in Harden’s raw points tonight in cash games.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. There’s still a lot of injury information we may need before 7:00.

PG: Fred VanVleet (4600)
PG: Jamal Murray (6900)
SG: James Harden (13500)
SG: Marco Belinelli (4500)
SF: Nikola Mirotic (6700)
SF: Jonathan Isaac (5100)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (8200)
PF: Pascal Siakam (6700)
C: Aaron Baynes (3700)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!