Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Wednesday January 23

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have a very nice 10 game slate on hand tonight with some big names at the top!

We have another James Harden slate, so thing will get interesting tonight. This is also the first time he’s left a bad taste on the mouth of people who used him the game before, which could keep the ownership down a little more than we’ve been accustomed to. There’s already plenty of chalk and a lot of moving pieces, so let’s dig into this large 10 gamer with our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Kyrie Irving, Celtics 

My goodness has Irving been on a tear these past four games. You do have to decide on Irving tonight because there is one main aspect both good and bad for Kyrie. The bad is their playing the Cavs in Boston and this game has a pretty large spread, Kyrie could be done by the end of the third quarter. The good aspect is A. it’s the Cavs and if they get scorched, Kyrie is likely to lead the way and B. Al Horford is out for the Celtics.

It might not seem like Horford being out for Boston is all that big of a deal but the stats would say otherwise. Irving bumps up to a 33.3 percent usage rate and a 1.42 FPPM without Horford, which is a two percent jump in the usage. Do I expect him to have eight steals like he did the last game? Of course not but the previous three games showed he doesn’t need that amount of steals to post a big score. You just have to hope the Cavs can keep it close enough for a full run.

Honorable Mention – Kris Dunn, Bulls

Fade – Kemba Walker, Hornets

Yesterday, we wrote up some players that I ended up with anyways after the Kings threw a giant monkey wrench into the slate and there was only eight teams to pick from. That’s not the case tonight when we have 20 teams on the slate and I do struggle to find reasons why I should play him in this spot. The price tag is great, especially on DK but Walker has left you high and dry often lately.

He’s only exceeded 40 DK in three of his last 10 games, so the recent form leaves something to be desired. You would need at least 40 to get very close to 6x and then we have to consider the matchup. Charlotte travels into Memphis and the Grizzlies are ninth against the point guard position this season. At an average of giving up just a little over 22 real points a game to the point guard position, that would be three points fewer than Walker’s seasonal average. There’s a lot of factors working against Walker tonight on a really large slate.

Honorable Mention – Kyle Lowry, Raptors(even though Kawhi Leonard still needs more rest)

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Eric Gordon, Rockets 

Gordon couldn’t have stunk up the joint much worse last game in Philly but the road gets a little easier in New York. Teams are going all out to double James Harden and do anything they can to even remotely slow him down. I really don’t mind playing Harden and Gordon together(no, I’m not going to fade Harden yet even though the floor was super “low” last game out) because there’s every chance you get 40 combined shots from both of those players. Since his return, Gordon has shot the ball 11, 16 and 13 times with the 13 being the blowout in Philly.

If I can get that piece of an offense against the Knicks at this price tag, I’m going to take it more often than not. Gordon can be flighty with his shot attempts as evidenced by his 2-13 dud against the Sixers but the Knicks are giving up the sixth most DK points to the position. Given the injury situation the Rockets are still facing, Gordon needs to play minutes and haas a very respectable 27 percent usage rate. It should be a nice bounce back game tonight for him.

Honorable Mention – DeMar DeRozan, Spurs

Fade – Lou Williams, Clippers 

As I’m writing this, the Clippers just tipped off their game on Tuesday night. Sweet Lou is available to play but will be on restricted minutes due to his injury. That’s all fine and dandy, but when you have a player who barely averages 25 minutes through the season and his price is spiked up to start with, that’s a recipe for an easy fade. Williams is not priced at a point where there is any margin for error when he’s healthy, which it doesn’t appear that he is. He may even wind up out for this game so that’s something to monitor.

If Williams does suit up, he does draw one of the tougher matchups for shooting guards as the Heat give up the fourth fewest DK points to the position. Not only that, but they surrender the third fewest real points. Williams may carry a usage over 30 percent and will always shoot the ball no matter what, but it’s a very poor spot for him on paper.

Honorable Mention – Tim Hardaway Jr, Knicks

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – J.J. Redick, Sixers

* Note – If Ben Simmons and Jimmy Butler are active, pivot to DeAndre’ Bembry of Atlanta 

We’re heading into this game with both Simmons and Butler questionable for this game and Butler sat out the last one so he appears to have a real shot at missing again. Make no mistake, Redick doesn’t see any crazy bump in usage or FPPM that points me in this direction with those players off the floor. It would be more of the fact that someone outside Joel Embiid would have to shoot the ball and Redick already averages over 18 points a game this year.

If Simmons and Butler were to miss, there’s certainly more opportunity for assists and rebounds in Redick’s game as well. Both Butler and Simmons are over 22 percent usage, which would be a lot to be missing in this one. The Spurs also face the 12th most three point attempts on the season, which has always been a staple of Redick’s game. He’s attempting 7.8 shots a game from that range, easily a career high. Granted, he’s also rocking his worst field goal percentage in the past six seasons, but that just means he’s due to get hot.

Honorable Mention – Nikola Mirotic, Pelicans

Fade – Kevin Knox, Knicks

I might not be a huge fan of playing Tim Hardaway but the way things are going for Knox right now, I might play Hardaway about 95 times out of 100. While he’s still getting plenty of minutes, the bottom has dropped out for Knox in these past 10 games. He’s only been over 28 DK once in the last 10, which was a 41 DK point outburst. Every other game has been under 28, with five of them ending under 20 DK. The price has understandably been dropping, making him look awfully attractive. Even at that depressed price, he hasn’t come close to value most nights lately.

Houston gives up the 12th fewest real points to the small forward position, and while they are a team that is struggling right now, it’s still not a situation I want to burn a roster spot on tonight. In the past month, Knox has a 19.7 usage and a 0.67 FPPM. No thank you on that one, especially on a big slate like this.

Honorable Mention – Rudy Gay, Spurs

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – John Collins, Hawks

The chalk is going to be Julius Randle, and you should absolutely play him(spoiler alert, he’s the Honorable Mention and I almost just used him here) because he’s been a monster without Anthony Davis to the tune of a 1.45 FPPM. Anyways, Collins is a great pivot off of that chalk and has a fantastic matchup himself. He’s taken a very nice step forward this season and the Bulls front court really shouldn’t be able to handle him, especially with Wendell Carter Jr. out with thumb surgery.

Chicago has had a weakness in the paint all season long and I’ve attacked it as often as possible, usually to solid results. They sit in the bottom eight in paint points and rebounds given up, which meshes extremely well for Collins. He is seventh in the NBA in paint touches, fifth in paint points and 14th in rebound chances per contest. Maybe he doesn’t have quite the ceiling of Randle, but there is a very real outcome where he gets close to Randle’s final number at a fraction of the ownership.

Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Pelicans

Fade – LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs

This is really going to be a tough spot for Aldridge to succeed because Joel Embiid is waiting for him on the other end. That’s not a spot that I want to chase down on a 10 game slate and I think Aldridge is going to struggle with any type of post up game on Embiid. In fact, Aldridge leads the league in pots ups per game at 12.7.

Philly is right about average when it comes to giving up points in the paint, which isn’t leading me to Aldridge. I do have to say that Aldridge did very well in this meeting the first time around with a 20/10 performance but the Spurs also wiped the floor with the Sixers. I don’t see that as an outcome this time around in Philly regardless of the status of Ben Simmons or Jimmy Butler, which means I will have very little Aldridge at his price.

Honorable Mention – Montrezl Harrell, Clippers

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Jahlil Okafor, Pelicans 

Center is once again loaded with options all over the board. This was very much a coin flip between Okafor and Enes Kanter for the Knicks. Since the Rockets have no center right now and Luke Kornet is injured, one would think Kanter has to play minutes and I will have exposure to him as well. On DK, I think my core three might wind up being these two centers and Harden. My only fear with Kanter is the minutes since it seems clear that he and the Knicks aren’t on the same page. If I can only play one, I lean Okafor just because I feel like I’m getting guaranteed minutes.

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This past game was the first without Anthony Davis for an extended period and Okafor excelled in a tough spot. He put up a 20/10 performance against the Grizzlies and now gets a Detroit squad that will likely be without Andre Drummond due to a concussion. The Pistons are currently inside the top 10 in paint points and rebounds allowed, but that will plummet without Drummond and Okafor is in prime position once again to take advantage of it.

Honorable Mention – Enes Kanter, Knicks or Aron Baynes, Celtics as a true punt

Fade – Rudy Gobert, Jazz 

I’m conflicted about Gobert tonight and at his relatively normal price tag, I might take a run at him and see what happens. Denver is a little bit odd defensively in the paint. They give up the fourth most points in the painted area, which would lead me to using Gobert. The big man is fourth in paint touches and second in paint points. However, Denver also give up the third fewest rebounds which could cap the ceiling for Gobert.

With the price tag currently sky-high, you simply can’t sink that scary into a player that has a capped ceiling like that. In addition, I’m a little hesitant to use this Denver game almost at all. It doesn’t tip until 10:30, which makes it the latest game on the slate. Usually, that’s not an issue but the other nine games tip by eight o’clock. There is no safety raft out there if something weird pops up. There is no indication of any player sitting out, but if you’ve played NBA DFS long enough, you know it’s a potential outcome. Thee’s plenty of factors leading me way from Gobert tonight.

Honorable Mention – Hassan Whiteside, Heat in anything other than a deep GPP

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