Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Wednesday January 23
By John Fazio
Good day and greetings from your fantasy NBA best plays host and avid basketball fan. Today, injuries will play a huge part in setting our winning lineups.
Once again we start off with the huge question for our fantasy NBA best plays – what to do with the most expensive player on the slate, the guy who under-performed last time at Philadelphia and who is priced nearly $3000 higher than superstar Embiid.
If we roster James Harden and he only posts 55 DraftKings points as he did versus the 76ers, our lineups will be washed away.
Then again, that was at Philadelphia. Now he is at New York. I really don’t think it will be a major surprise if Harden posts more than 80 DK points – he did put up 91 at Golden State not long ago.
The injuries to Chris Paul and Clint Capela assure Harden a massive usage rate, and nobody else on the team can be counted on to score. It will be all about getting Harden the ball and watching him go to work.
Fade Harden at your own risk
This is a heavy 10 game slate. Many upper shelf players have a chance to score big but with Anthony Davis injured and already ruled out, no-one has the upside Harden projects except possibly Embiid.
It’s not only the talent level compared to his teammates and the injuries to the 2nd and 3rd scorers on the Rockets – It’s also the fact Houston just cannot blow many teams out, and Harden in many cases is needed from start to finish.
Houston is favored by 7 today so a blowout is certainly possible. However in the Rockets last 2 games they easily won and Harden could be rested, his stats causing that easy win are incredible.
Against Memphis, 77.75 DK points in 34 minutes, and against Cleveland, 88 DK points in 30 minutes. So even when a blowout occurs, Harden is the reason for it and his stat line does not suffer with fewer minutes on the court.
Let’s look at the rest of the card now:
Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Best Rosters:
Let’s look at some of the best places to put key studs and sleepers mostly in the teams hit with injuries, and build a solid value player pool.
Toronto Raptors
Kawhi Leonard will be held out again today and that leaves us with several useful value rosters, although the Pacers have been strong in shutting down most positions except shooting guard.
Kyle Lowry ($7200) is the main offensive focus when Leonard is out. Fred VanVleet ($4600) had a productive game yesterday and looks good in this spot at his still low salary.
Orlando Magic
Nikola Vucevic ($9300) appears to be in a stellar match-up against the Nets who are ranked 30th in the league against centers. Vucevic exploits opportunities like this and he could easily exceed 50 DK points on the way to his 63 projected ceiling.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs have 4 centers injured – Love, Nance, Thompson and Henson. That leaves Zizic ($6000) whose salary is climbing fast but still too low for the heavy minutes he will get today. The injury to opposing center Al Horford will certainly make it easier for him as well.
The Cavs just don’t have anyone else to depend on, and Zizic will be looked at early and often on the offensive end. With the extra rebounds he will get without Horford in the game, he should easily cover his salary.
Boston Celtics
Speaking of the Al Horford injury, Kyrie Irving ($9400) becomes the center of attention for Boston and as a result his projected ceiling has been raised to 68. Three of his last 4 games have been 63.75 or higher in DK point production.
Aron Baynes ($3500) starts in place of Horford but cannot be recommended due to poor production and split court time. Irving, even at his inflated salary, has the best chance to cover salary based expectations.
Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Show Me The Savings
New Orleans Pelicans
Jahlil Okafor ($4600) – As long as he draws the start again in place of Anthony Davis he should be a top roster. Last time out he generated 40 DK points in 35 minutes against the Memphis Grizzlies who are last in pace.
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Okafor should find the going easier today and in so doing swamp his salary and quite possibly be the best value play on the slate.
Jrue Holiday ($8600), Julius Randle ($8400), and Nikola Mirotic ($7000) will see their production values raised with Davis sidelined and can be rotated, mixed and matched with Okafor as the core. Anthony Davis takes up so much usage that DraftKings could not raise their salaries fast enough to compensate.
Atlanta Hawks
Playing against the Bulls, the power forward and center positions are particularly ripe for profiting. John Collins ($7900) and Dewayne Dedmon ($5600) fit those slots and should excel. While Collins normally posts in the area of 35 DK points per game, he has surpassed the 50 point mark in great situations and this could easily be one of them.
Watch for the inclusion of Deandre Bembry ($5300) into the starting lineup as a guard. Last game he played 34 minutes while producing over 35 DK points in that situation and should fare even better against Chicago.
Philadelphia 76ers
Should Ben Simmons be ruled out (and especially if Jimmy Butler is also out), Joel Embiid ($10500) will be a high usage top roster play even at his extreme cost. He could easily put up 60+ DK points with Simmons limited or out.
He would need to be toggled on DraftKings due to salary constraints but would be well worth it.
As always and especially today, injury news will be very important for last-minute roster adjustments. Those injury slots going to Bembry, Zizic, VanVleet and Okafor are very important for us to get good production and leave us salary room, so let’s make sure if they start we give them a roster.