Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NBA and NCAA basketball picks.
This series is going to be dedicated to finding those diamond in the rough NCAA basketball picks (money lines mostly) that pay a nice return but come with heavy risk. I mean, who wants to bet on the favorite anyways?
With the Gamecocks (+280) and the Falcons (+165) both coming through for upset victories, we came out ahead 3.45 units last night, not too bad.
Unfortunately, the home underdogs for tonight’s slate offer considerably less value tonight compared to last night. Instead, we’ll have to get crafty and find a few other hidden gems.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks
George Mason Patriots vs Dayton Flyers – 7:00pm ET
George Mason has been one of the surprise teams on the year. Coming off a down year that saw them go a meager 16-17, the Patriots sit at a strong 11-8 to go with a blistering 5-1 record in Atlantic 10 play.
George Mason is led by the strong guard duo of Livingston and Kier, both extremely versatile offensive weapons. While Livingston is one of the smaller point guards at the college level, he has great court vision and his senior leadership shows through in his ability to quarterback the offense.
Kier is a bit more of an athletic pure scorer at the 2 spot. After struggling with his shot last season, Kier has found his form again from deep and his multi-level scoring makes him a dangerous weapon alongside the savvy Livingston.
Somewhat similar in makeup to the Patriots, the Flyers run out an experienced and dominant duo of Cunningham and Crutcher.
While Crutcher is a smaller, true point guard (who happens to knock down the deep ball above 40%), Cunningham is an undersized big and crafty scorer around the basket. Another parallel to the Patriots is the fact that the Flyers are coming off a down year of their own, going 14-17 before responding with a 12-6 record (4-1 in A-10 play) this year.
Although Crutcher’s massive step forward has certainly helped regarding the Flyer’s turnaround, the fact of the matter is this team returned 4 starters from last year and clearly are more comfortable as a unit compared to last year.
There are a lot of parallels between these teams, lending one to believe that this should be a back and forth match-up between the two A-10 squads. However, the Patriots are a very solid 4-6 straight up as the underdog and boast a .500 record on the road.
Although Dayton has a notoriously hostile environment for opposing teams, expect the veteran leadership of Kier and Livingston (in particular) to guide the Patriots through what will almost certainly be an exciting game wire to wire.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: George Mason Patriots (+300)
Wisconsin Badgers vs Illinois Fighting Illini – 9:00pm ET
Similar to Auburn in last night’s edition, Wisconsin comes into a road match-up following a big game against the #2 Michigan Wolverines. Unlike Auburn, Wisconsin actually picked up the win against Michigan and come into this match-up riding high.
Unlike Auburn, Wisconsin looks to slow the game down and play through their dominant big man Ethan Happ. Averaging a gaudy 19/10/5 on the year, if the Badgers get Happ going early, he is a huge problem for opposing defenses.
With great vision for a big, Happ is just as comfortable passing out the double team and finding his open shooters out on the perimeters as he is attacking in the low post.
Illinois on the other hand has had a rough go at things recently. At just 5-13 on the year, there really haven’t been too many bright spots for the Fighting Illini.
However, they have the distinct honor of being the home team, and if college basketball has shown us one thing this year, it is that home underdogs have been outright winning games at a much higher clip.
If the Illini want to have a shot at the upset, the young back-court of Frazier and Dosunmu will need to have monster nights. As the leading scorers on a struggling Illini squad, they’ll need to attack the heart of a dangerous Badgers defense and avoid being forced into long possessions ending in contested shots.
Wisconsin has no reason to drop this game, but this game has all the markings of Wisconsin overlooking an underrated (but still not all that good) Illinois squad. As this season has shown, on the road even the best teams have struggled to find rhythm.
This will be a risky one, but look for Illinois to answer whenever Wisconsin makes a run as they find a way to eek out a close win.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: Illinois Fighting Illini (+160)
San Jose State Spartans vs Wyoming Cowboys – 9:00pm ET
Our last match-up of the evening involves a showdown between two of the worst teams in all of Division 1 basketball. With a combined 7 wins between them to date, this game is sure to be an ugly one.
San Jose State sits at an abysmal 3-14 on the year and are win-less in 5 attempts through conference play. The Spartans rely heavily on big man Michael Steadman as he leads the team in minutes, points, and rebounds.
The Spartans aren’t a team that is going to get out and run and instead rely on trying to control the pace of play. They’ve clearly struggled mightily on executing that game-plan this year, but that remains their “attempted” plan of attack for most games.
Wyoming had slightly higher hopes coming into the season. Despite significant turnover, nobody expected the Cowboys to jump to a 4-14 record that also sees them win-less in conference play.
Essentially a one-man show at this point, everything on the offensive end revolves around Senior Justin James. Leading the Cowboys in every major statistical category except blocks, James has been the only thing keeping the Cowboys routinely scoring around 60 points. Without his production, the Cowboys offense would be the pound for pound worst unit in the nation.
I like this match-up simply for the fact that even when tabbed the favorites, the Cowboys are just 1-3 on the year. They haven’t been able to beat the few teams that odds-makers expect them to, and they often get a bump in points simply due to James being a box score filling machine.
While by no means good, the Spartans play considerably more of an unselfish brand of basketball and should be able to weather the inevitable 20-ish points from James.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: San Jose Spartans (+230)
That’s all for tonight’s underdog NCAA Basketball picks. Check back in to Fantasy CPR tomorrow for more underdog picks because nobody likes betting the favorite!