Welcome into the Thursday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have just four games on hand tonight but plenty of directions to go to find the money!
It’s always interesting when we have a smaller slate as opposed to a 10 game like yesterday. You just attack things differently, although with the amount of injuries and players who sat yesterday, the player pool got condensed in a hurry. As of now, we don’t have the exact same amount of chalk but there will be some very popular players. Let’s get to work to find out who we need to be looking at tonight in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays,
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – Damian Lillard, Blazers
This is more of a pivot because I will likely have a good bit of Russell Westbrook in a great matchup. I’m not going to tell anyone they shouldn’t play him but as we sit tonight, I think he’s going to be chalky. One of the ways to get off that chalk in GPP’s is to spend around $2,000 less and roll out Lillard, who has been heating up a little bit.
If we look at the past 10 games, some of the stability has started to come back for Lillard. He’s been over 40 DK in eight of his last 10, culminating in a 60 point outburst against the Thunder this past game. He’s scored at least 24 real points in the past six and has eight assists in the past three. It’s been nice to see and the price is still too low. He’s normally well over $9,000 when things have been going well and now he gets the Suns, who have given up the sixth most DK and real points to the position. Take advantage of the situation and play some Lillard as well tonight.
Note – Literally as soon as I finished the write up, Lillard popped up as questionable. If he happens to be out, move up to Westbrook and plug in C.J. McCollum
Honorable Mention – Russell Westbrook, Thunder
Fade – Steph Curry, Warriors
The normal game plan for the four game slate is in full effect here because I will have some Curry tonight bu I don’t think he’ll be a core player for me tonight. One, the spread is certainly concerning since it’s sitting at 9.5 right now. That doesn’t seem bad but don’t be surprised if that climbs up towards 11-12 points before the game tips off. The Warriors are plenty capable of blowing anyone off the floor but I don’t see how the Wizards can keep up with Golden State unless Bradley Beal scores about 50 real points.
Seeing how that is very unlikely, we also have to weigh the fact that the Warriors have a big five now. Keeping in mind that it’s a very small sample size, Curry has seen his usage drop by about 6.5 percent, which is a massive number. The FPPM has stayed fairly stable but that doesn’t seem like it will be sustainable for the long-term. On DraftKings, Curry is very reasonable at $9,100 but FanDuel he’s still more or less full price. I will absolutely play Lillard over him if he’s active and would just drop down after that.
Honorable Mention – None
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – Devin Booker, Suns
If you’re looking at the cheap end, Dennis Schroder or even Terrance Ferguson would be intriguing but this is an interesting spot for Booker. We know that T.J. Warren is already ruled out and the chances of Deandre Ayton playing seem slim, at best. That leaves Booker as the lone wolf and while the FPPM is basically the same, the usage drops significantly. When you look closer, you realize that we’re looking at a 25 minute sample size. I think he’s the exact same player and over the long haul, would see a boost. Tonight, the Suns need him to score at least 30 and Booker will be happy to oblige.
If we go by the numbers, the Trailblazers are about average against the point and shooting guard positions. Sometimes the overall numbers just really don’t matter when the injury situation forces your hand. Now, I’m not saying Booker is going to turn into a mini-James Harden, but Booker and to some extent Josh Jackson is all Phoenix really has. I guess Kelly Oubre would be a nice option as well, but there is one guy in Phoenix that is going to ball hog and it’s Booker.
Honorable Mention – Jrue Holiday, Pelicans
Fade – Bradley Beal, Wizards
This fade kind of depends on what you think happens in this game. Even though Golden State is on the road and are coming together as a team and integrating DeMarcus Cousins but I personally feel like Washington can’t keep this one within reach. If they cannot, it really seems like a good spot for the Wizards to get Beal some rest. Beal sits third in minutes per game at 37 even, which is only 0.3 minutes behind James Harden.
Now, I will say that if the Wizards do stay in this game into the fourth quarter, it almost has to be from Beal scoring a lot of points. Once again, the price on DK is a lot more appealing than it is on FD because on FD there’s multiple players cheaper because Beal is just outside five digits. To be fair, the Warriors do give up the fifth most points to shooting guard so that does mesh well for what Beal needs. I just can’t get behind him tonight compared to other options.
Honorable Mention – Any Laker shooting guard
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Paul George, Thunder
We’ll see how things shake out during the day, but if there’s any way to do it without sacrificing the rest of my lineup, I’m going to likely run a lot of Westbrook and Paul George combos. The Pelicans cannot defend on a good day and now they don’t have Anthony Davis to help guard the paint. I don’t really expect a repeat of the six blocks for Jahlil Okafor(Top center play from yesterday) and George should be able to have his way in this spot.
The Pelicans haven been vulnerable to wing players for a good while now and George is playing the best basketball of his career, enjoying career hit points per game, rebounds per game and very close to assists per game. New Orleans is on the second leg of a back to back and already give up the third most DK points to small forwards as it is. George is one of the top five plays on the board for tonight’s slate.
Honorable Mention – Kevin Durant, Warriors(there’s not many options at the top on FD)
Fade – Trevor Ariza, Wizards(mostly on FD)
I’m not exactly sure what happened with Trevor Ariza over on FD, but his price is out of control. Don’t get me wrong, the minutes and production are there. It becomes more a matter of needing every dollar at this point. There’s a lot of higher priced plays and I can’t stomach spending up on Ariza. The floor is usually there just because he never seems to leave the court but he would have blowout concerns as well.
Brandon Ingram, Kelly Oubre and potentially even Evan Turner are in play on that site, making Ariza a luxury that would be difficult to afford. While the price is more affordable on DK, there are still cheaper players that are in much better spots and I’d much rather go that route.
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – Kyle Kuzma, Lakers
I find myself loving Kuzma tonight, especially since his price has come down a little bit on each side. He’s under $7,000 on DK and barely the same price on FD. This game boasts a total right about 230 points and a spread of just 1.5 points, which can be a gold mine for fantasy. Rajon Rondo could be back tonight but that might actually wind up helping Kuzma since the Lakers would have a ball handler not named Brandon Ingram. Rondo is much more of a pass first player, which could lead to a couple easy buckets for Kuzma.
The matchup against the Wolves looks pretty solid on top of everything else, because the Wolves are no better than average across the board against power forwards. The Lakers need scoring with the pieces they’re still missing and Kuzma is the lead dog in that department. There are times that Kuzma can be disappointing but I don’t feel like this is going to be one of those kind of spots.
Honorable Mention – Jerami Grant, Thunder
Fade – None
Sometimes, this is going to happen on a four game slate. On FD, there really isn’t any player worth being a fade. Julius Randle has a history this season of being great without Davis, despite the dud he threw out there yesterday. Draymond Green is perfectly fine against the Wizards and especially since they are next to last in rebounding percentage. Guys like Josh Jackson and Al-Farouq Aminu are definitely in play, though a bit risky. Everyone else isn’t at a price that would justify a fade. My plan of attack is potentially trying to fit in Kuzma and Randle if I can, but will likely use Grant due to salary.
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Jusuf Nurkic, Blazers
The very obvious play is Karl Anthony-Towns, as he should run roughshod over the poor Lakers front court. I think one of the bigger debates on this slate might be do you play KAT or Westbrook, and I think Westbrook has the edge this evening. So, look for a little cheaper and take Nurkic in just a good as spot against the Phoenix Suns.
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Deandre Ayton is almost for sure out, which will leave (possibly active) Richaun Holmes and Dragan Bender to slow down Nurkic. That’s just not going to work and even though Nurkic doesn’t always play the minutes that you want, he might not need them tonight. The Suns have given up the second most DK and real points along with the fourth most rebounds to centers across basketball. Nurkic touches the ball in the paint 7.6 times a game and the upside is really not that far off from what Towns brings. KAT is safer, but the salary difference might make your lineup work better overall.
Honorable Mention – Karl Anthony-Towns, Wolves and if you think the Warriors blow out the Wizards, Kevan Looney is a really interesting play for cheap
Fade – Any Lakers Center
You would think I could pick one of these guys and say they could be worthwhile because the Lakers need some size to contend with KAT. However, since Luke Walton is shuffling his rotations more times than I want a big bowl of ice cream in any given day(hint – it’s a lot), I want nothing to do with this situation. Let’s take a look at the minutes in the past five games for JaVale McGee, Tyson Chandler and Ivica Zubac –
McGee – 23, 13, 8, 16, 18
Chandler – 3, 26, 16, 14, 8
Zubac – 10, 7, 28, 21, 20
That’s not great at all. You run the risk of getting 10 minutes or fewer at the worst end. There is no reason to get mixed into this situation and I’d rather play Looney if you’re looking in that price range. I think people might pay up a little bit at center to make sure they get something closer to guaranteed for tonight.
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