NBA DFS Picks and Pivots Thursday, January 24
Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
At some point, when will people stop getting cute and fading James Harden? I get it, the price was high, but he was a free square in roster builds yesterday with SO much value – the James Harden/Terry Rozier was popular, but not popular enough and that should have been the first two guys in every build you made yesterday. Harden dropped 97 fantasy points at the Garden, with winning GPP scores pushing well over 400 and cash lines well over 350 as a result of a popular, but not 100% owned Beard. Stop fading him people.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Thursday Slate Breakdown and a FREE ROLL!
Before we jump into tonight’s NBA DFS slate, let’s start your day with a little Picks and Pivots FREE ROLL as our friends at FantasyDraft once again hook you up with a $50 free roll with a chance to win tickets into Friday’s NBA DFS contests!
Even though we only have a four game NBA DFS slate tonight, kicking off at 8PM EST, this slate is simply loaded – with high Vegas totals, great game environments and tons and tons of stars. The question is where exactly do you want to plant your flag?
From an overall slate perspective, the Pelicans/Thunder, Warriors/Wizards and Lakers/Timberwolves are all games where both teams see pace upticks with the Suns/Trail Blazers being the only non pace-up game environment. In addition to the pace metrics, all three games notes have totals of 229-237, so to say we are expecting some fantasy points to be scored would be an understatement!
We have some big time injury news to watch on this slate as well with the big focus being in the slow(er) paced Suns-Blazers game:
- DeAndre Ayton – Doubtful
- Richaun Holmes – Questionable
- TJ Warren – OUT
- Damian Lillard – Questionable
The status of Damian Lillard is probably the most critical piece of information we need tonight, and it’s really less about him and more about the value it could open up on a night where he we need it.
Historically when Dame has been out, the usage boost has always been for CJ McCollum ($12.5K) who would become an elite play in his own right, and even though Dame has yet to miss a game this year, it would seem likely that if Lillard were to sit, Seth Curry ($6K) would likely slide into the starting rotation.
This would be one of those don’t get cute scenario’s – a minimum price guard with a clear path to major minutes against a Suns team ranked 27th in defensive efficiency. He should be 100% owned on this four game slate if Dame is ruled out and rightfully so – amazing to think Seth could be the chalk Curry on a four-gamer with his brother going as well huh?
Speaking of Steph and the Warriors – this is the game I am taking my stand and fading full on. I am a firm believer you need to take stands on short slates and although Vegas only has Golden State as a 9 point road favorite – how in the world is this Wizards team stopping a fully healthy Golden State team?
In their last four games, the Warriors have beaten the Nuggets by 31, the Clippers by 18 and the Lakers by 19. Listen, any of Steph, KD, Klay, Boogie or Draymond could give you a big night – but when they are all healthy, in a game I simply do not see staying close and with other better spots on the board – I am going to fade them and hope they have floor games and avoid their ceiling spots tonight – it is that simple.
NBA DFS – Pelicans and Thunder and Stack it Up:
Part of the reason the Seth Curry value is so important on this slate, is because I want to stack up every possible piece I can from this Thunder-Pelicans game in what is the fastest projected pace, the highest Vegas total (237) and you have this perfect combination of injury news/value, new usage and elite ceiling plays that make this the ideal stacking spot.
Russell Westbrook ($19.2K) and Paul George ($17.6K) become the first two plays in a game environment where an already fast-Thunder squad sees one of the largest pace boosts on the slate. Westbrook and PG13 are the only two Thunder starters putting up over a FP/M, with 1.5 and 1.3 marks respectively over the last two weeks, with each player shooting the ball over 20 times per game over the last 10 games. The fact that you can isolate that kind of usage and production and capture essentially all of the Thunder’s fantasy output with these two make them an ideal building block in all formats and even more so in the context of this stack.
In the two games since Anthony Davis has been out, opposing big men have had their way with the Pelicans interior with Marc Gasol putting up 43 fantasy points (23/8/6) two games ago while Zaza Pachulia racked up 25 fantasy points, (8pts/10rbs) and Blake Griffin dropped a monster 63 fantasy points on the back of a 37/9/7 line. With that context, Steven Adams ($12.1K) looks like he could be a sneaky upside play here with the potential for a massive ceiling with the Pelicans being short-handed up front.
Not only are the Pelicans without Anthony Davis, but there is the potential they could be without Nikola Mirotic tonight who left last night’s game with an injury and did not return.
Pelicans are not ruling out Nikola Mirotic for tomorrow night against OKC just yet. He does have a right calf strain and will get re-evaluated in the morning.
— Andrew Lopez (@_Andrew_Lopez) January 24, 2019
Let’s start with the known here – with AD and potentially Mirotic off – the duo of Jrue Holiday ($14.9K) and Julius Randle ($14.4K) become near must play after the two have gone for 48/46 and 45/36 fantasy points respectively in this two game AD-less stretch.
Jahlil Okafor ($9.7K) has simply been incredible with back to back games of 40 fantasy points, playing 35 and 31 minutes and although I am afraid to keep going back to this well, the price is simply too cheap and the Pelicans will have no choice but to lean on him again with Adams on the other side.
If Mirotic misses this game, Darius Miller ($6K) could be the biggest beneficiary on the second team as we saw him get the majority of the run last night, playing 30 minutes, including the entirety of the 4th quarter in a close game, alongside the starting unit.
Here is where this gets really interesting:
Alvin Gentry says E'Twaun Moore has been playing through injuries and he'll probably limit his minutes tonight. Added there's a good chance they sit him tomorrow on the second night of a back to back.
— Will Guillory (@WillGuillory) January 23, 2019
If Moore sits and you have Mirotic out too, Miller would likely slide into the starting unit and it is hard to see a path where he does not push 30-35 minutes at minimum price. Again this would be a don’t over think it spot for me – lock him in!
UPDATE – Both Mirotic and Moore are indeed ruled OUT!
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
This lineup is meant to be illustrative only and is not meant to be a plug and play lineup, instead it should support the breakdown in this article.
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G: Jrue Holiday
G: Seth Curry
F/C: Paul George
F/C: Julius Randle
F/C: Steven Adams
UTIL: Jahlil Okafor
UTIL: Darius Miller
Slate Overview: I made the comments to start that on a four game slate, I am simply looking to take stands, plant my flag and let the chips fall where they may. With so many great games, I am not going to bother with the Suns/Portland outside of using the value that could open up and I am simply taking the approach that the Warriors are too healthy and there is too much blowout risk against the Warriors to where stacking multiple pieces from that game will give me the ceiling I want. Sure, could one of Warriors All-Star starting 5 have a big game, absolutely – but there is no obvious answer so why take the risk when there are other stars on this slate with clear paths and no competition on their own team to prevent them from a ceiling type game.
Therefore it comes down to the Thunder/Pelicans and Wolves/Lakers as spots to attack. I said it before and hopefully demonstrated it in my sample build, this OKC-NO game is the perfect roster composition as a result of injuries/value where you can stack up the clear top plays, literally every single one of them and use some of the value (Hello Darius Miller) to fit it all in without an issue.
Now normally, playing two $6K minimum priced punts would be risky – but there is a very real chance here that Curry and Miles see unobstructed paths to 30-35 minutes which makes them near must plays and they become building blocks on night that is shaping up to be a “How Many Studs Can you Jam In?”
Enjoy this slate all and get into that Free Roll!
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