Fantasy Basketball: NBA Draftkings Top Salary Value Plays – 1/24
By Shaun Evans
Hello and welcome everyone to another day of the “Top Salary Value Plays” for the NBA Draftkings slate tonight of 4 games! Last night we had a lot of value to go with James Harden insane 99.25 fantasy points! But the cash line was also insanely high but we shouldn’t have that issue tonight. So lets dig into this research and find our top value plays. Good luck and cash out!
NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value.
For example, the other night Russell Westbrook was priced at $10,900 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 54.50 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sadly, he did not. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.
Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 5 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Russell Westbrook vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Salary: $10,700 – Needs to score 53.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (69.55 fox 6.5x)
For a four game slate tonight, we have a pretty good depth at the point guard position as we get both, Russell Westbrook and Steph Curry, tonight. Westbrook has the better match-up though against the New Orleans Pelicans who are allowing opposing point guards to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds. Westbrook is at a usage rate of 31% while averaging a triple double with 21 points, 10 assist and 10 rebounds. He’s averaging 57 fantasy points a game, plus 1.6 fantasy points per minute. With his fppm plus this Pelicans defense versus point guards, that number may rise tonight.
In the past five games, Westbrook has exceeded value in three of those games, scoring 67, 63.3, and 65.5. In the first game against the Pelicans this season, he wasn’t able to reach his stat-line but did record 20 points, 7 assist, and 6 rebounds with 4 steals in 38 minutes. We will need a better outcome tonight for him to reach that 6.5x value number of 69.55 fantasy points.
Other Top Tier Option
Steph Curry vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $9,100 – Needs to score 45.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (59.15 fox 6.5x)
With a great match-up also, Steph Curry gets to face the struggling Washington Wizards who have been a complete mess. Allowing a very similar stat-line versus opposing point guards like the New Orleans Pelicans of 24 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds. Curry’s is still averaging the same of 29 points, 5 assist, and 5 rebounds per game, even with DeMarcus Cousins on the court finally. But Curry has had a tougher time returning value as he has only done it once in the past five games, scoring just 57.3 fantasy points. He is averaging 1.4 fantasy points per minute and 48.6 per game. Another positive note is that Curry scorched the Wizards with 51 points in their first match up, shooting 62%. If his shot is falling once again, he may hit value by the third quarter.
Low Tier Option
Dennis Schroder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Salary: $4,800 – Needs to score 24 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Staying in the same lane, why not bounce back to Dennis Schroder tonight versus the New Orleans Pelicans if you’re looking for salary relief. Schroder is averaging 15 points, 4 assist and 3 rebounds while playing around 28 minutes off of the bench. He has a very low ceiling tonight, needing just 24 fantasy points. On the season, he’s averaging 27 fantasy points per game and .96 fantasy points per minute. But be cautious with this play as he has only hit value twice in the past five games, scoring 29.5 and 28.3 fantasy points.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Jrue Holiday vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary: $8,200 – Needs to score 41 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Jrue Holiday gets a major bump with Anthony Davis being out for the next week or two with his injury. Holiday’s usage rate jumps from 24% to 26% without AD on the floor. Now the downside is that Holiday’s numbers do decrease without Anthony Davis but with this match-up, we should overlook that a little. On the season he is averaging 21 points, 8 assist, and 5 rebounds, scoring 43 fantasy per game and 1.2 fantasy points per minute. He gets to face an Oklahoma City Thunder defense that is allowing shooting guards to average 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assist per game.
Jrue Holiday has returned value five times in the past six games, scoring 47.8, 49, 47.8, 45.5, and 39.3 fantasy points. He also recorded a double double in their first match-up of the season, scoring 20 points, 10 assist and 5 rebounds. Expect those numbers to be better tonight with Anthony Davis off the court.
Other Top Tier Options
Devin Booker vs. Portland Trailblazers
Salary: $7,500 – Needs to score 37.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Now play this one cautiously as we could see a suspension for the fight that “almost” happened between Devin Booker and Gorgui Dieng in their last game. Also, Devin Book is still yet to return to his former self this season. He has only returned value twice in his previous five games while playing over 30 minutes except when he was ejected. Booker is averaging 24 points, 7 assist, and 4 rebounds per game but gets to face a weak Trailblazers team versus shooting guards. Portland is allowing shooting guards to average 22 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assist versus them. Booker has yet to see this Portland Trailblazers team but at $7,500, he is hard to pass up.
Low Tier Option
Klay Thompson vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $6,400 – Needs to score 32 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Klay Thompson is one that we still need to understand. He has his hot and cold games but the last one versus the Los Angeles Lakers, that was a hot one. Klay is coming off of a performance where he recored 44 points (all assisted on) with 3 rebounds and 2 assist. On the season, he’s averaging 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist. He didn’t play a huge role in the first dominance of the Wizards as he only scored 19 points with 2 rebounds and just 1 assist. Thompson still has a very low price of $6,400 and can easily exceed value if his shot is falling versus this weak Washington Wizards team.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Paul George vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Salary: $9,600 – Needs to score 48 fantasy points or more to exceed value
These small 4 game slate write-ups are looking the same lately because Russell Westbrook and Paul George are both top plays once again in three days. George is coming off of a huge game against the Portland Trailblazers and now gets to face the New Orleans Pelicans who are allowing small forwards to average 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist. PG13 has a usage rate of 29% while averaging 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist per game, almost to a double double on the season.
Paul George is averaging 49.4 fantasy points per game and 1.37 fantasy points per minute. He has returned value in four of his last five games, scoring 64, 46, 53.5, and 54.8 fantasy points. He is upping his game this season and it has shown with the consistency in his play and in returning value.
Other Top Tier Options
Kyle Kuzma vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Salary: $6,900 – Needs to score 34.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Kyle Kuzma has stepped up as usually with the Lakers being down Lebron James and now, Lonza Ball. Kuzma gets to face a Minnesota Timberwolves team that is allowing small forwards to average 22 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assist per game. Kuzma, on the offensive side of the ball, is averaging 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assist per game, with a usage rate of 24%. Kuzma had his shot falling the first time the two teams met, scoring 21 points but just 2 rebounds and 1 assist. But now he gets to face them with Lebron James and Lonzo Ball which should give him the opportunity to max out his ceiling with a price tag of just $6,900.
Low Tier Option
Andrew Wiggins vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $5,600 – Needs to score 28 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Why is Andrew Wiggins so cheap versus the Lakers?! In 17 games against the Lakers, Wiggins is averaging 23 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist. Plus in their first match-up this season, Wiggins dropped 28 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assist, scoring 39.8 fantasy points. If he does that again tonight, he’s pushing the 7x value mark. This Los Angeles Lakers team is allowing small forwards to average 22 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assist per game. Wiggins is currently averaging .86 fantasy points per minute but has only returned value in his past five games. But expect tonight o be his bounce back night before heading back to his underwhelming performance on this Minnesota Timberwolves team.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Kevin Durant vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $9,000 – Needs to score 45 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Now with the small forward and power forward position have basically the same player pool, we’re just going to keep this position small since the two Golden State Warriors starting forwards are the best option to go with tonight. First up is Kevin Durant who has a very low salary tag for this match-up. Only needing 45 fantasy points to hit value? Easy. In the first match-up, Durant could not miss as his shot was falling 72% of the time. He ended up recording 30 points with 8 rebounds and 7 assist. But with the addition of DeMarcus Cousins being on the court, it may be a little lower of a stat-line tonight. Durant has actually decreased in price and fantasy point wise with Boogie being back also.
This Wizards defense is allowing power forwards to average 22 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assist. But on the offensive side of the court, Durant is currently averaging 28 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assist with a usage rate of 30%. But also, in a very small sample size, Durant’s usage has dropped to 25% with DeMarcus Cousins and he also averages 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist. But like I said, small sample size so pay it little mind.
Low Tier Option
Draymond Green vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $6,000 – Needs to score 30 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Now moving on to Kevin Durant’s best friend on this team, Draymond Green. Green has a low usage rate of 13% while averaging 7’s across the board in points, rebounds, and assist. He also wasn’t a ball hog in the first match-up versus the Wizards, recording 12 assist with 5 rebounds and 5 points. He has also returned value in three of his last five games, scoring 36, 52.5, and 33 fantasy points. He gets to see the same defense that Durant sees which puts him in a better spot then majority of the power forwards tonight, plus at a lower salary price. But unlike Kevin Durant, Green’s usage changes in no way with the big man, DeMarcus Cousins on the court.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Jusuf Nurkic vs. Phoenix Suns
Salary: $8,000 – Needs to score 40 fantasy points or more to exceed value
We have a pretty good depth at the center position tonight with multiple ones in great match-ups. But first, lets start with Jusuf Nurkic versus the G-League Suns who are allowing centers to average 26 points, 16 rebounds and 4 assist per game. Nurkic, on the offensive side of the ball, is averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist on the season, with a usage rate of 24%. He’s averaging 38 fantasy points per game and 1.4 fantasy points per minute.
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When it comes to returning value, Nurkic has done it in four of his last five games, scoring 51.5, 42, 54. and 47.3 fantasy points. With DeAndre Ayton questionable once again tonight, Nurkic would get Dragan Bender in a match-up who may be able to hold some weight but not enough to keep Nurkic from returning or exceeding value.
Other Top Tier Options
Karl Anthony-Towns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $10,200 – Needs to score 51 fantasy points or more to exceed value (66.3 for 6.5x)
The great match-ups keep coming at the center position and with an increase by $2,200, Karl Anthony-Towns gets his third great match-up in a row. He just saw the Phoenix Suns on back to back games, where he scored 61 and 65.5 fantasy points. Now he gets to see a Lakers defense that is allowing centers to average 24 points, 18 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. KAT has only returned value in three of his last five games, two being against the Suns and the other versus New Orleans where he scored 78.8. He’s averaging 48.4 fantasy points per game and 1.44 fantasy points per minute. Going with either KAT or Nurkic, you’ll get similar results tonight as both produce the same fantasy points per minute and both have great match-ups.
Low Tier Option
DeMarcus Cousins vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $5,800 – Needs to score 29 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Once again, play DeMarcus Cousins! He gets to play a Washington Wizards team that is allowing centers to average 23 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. But what we don’t know yet is what the minutes will be tonight for Boogie. He only played 15 minutes in his first game of the season due to fouling out and then only 21 minutes versus the Lakers. We’ll probably get around 20 minutes again tonight. We also don’t have a sample size to make Cousins a lock play but he is already averaging 11 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assist. Plus he’s the third member of the Splash Brothers so why not? But in all honestly, Cousins is a great salary relief play once again and could remain one as long as his minutes are being watched but once the restrictions are off, be prepared for the price increase.
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