Good day and welcome to our NCAA basketball best bets from your host and value gambler. It’s a large slate so let’s get right to it.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving picks for the upcoming days games, having written this the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are key to my value plays. Some will be better, some the same and some worse when you make your bets. Disregard any play that has a worse line or an unexpected injury, but don’t be afraid to wager higher if the line is better for you.
Having said that, let’s get to this slate of NCAA basketball best bets. I will be mentioning the teams I am playing for myself in time order, and I will mention the strength of the play if it deviates from the norm as the team is discussed. All times Eastern Standard. Here we go:
Texas State +3 over Georgia State, 7pm
Interesting long-term match-up here because the road team wins nearly all their encounters against the spread (ATS) going back 5 years. Texas State has won their last 3/4 road games ATS with the only loss being a non-cover as a 2 1/2 point favorite.
I always like a situation where most of the public is on the other side, and the early indication shows 61% of bets on the home team Georgia State. Texas State for whatever reason likes the road, having won 16 of their last 21 road games ATS.
Wisconsin Milwaukee +12 1/2 over Wright State, 7pm
W MLW is playing well on the road right now while Wright State is struggling at home. My raw number is not way off so I would consider this selection to be a little smaller than normal but still worth a play.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Spartans Cover
Michigan State -5 over Iowa, 7pm
The game of the night. Michigan State is 17-2 straight up and has covered their last 8 games in a row while Iowa is 16-3 having covered their last 5. This is a huge game especially for Iowa and their fans will be loud and sky-high.
The problem is Michigan State has a ton of talent and are faring very well in hostile environments – in fact they seem to thrive on them. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games overall, and when facing a home team with a winning percentage greater than 600 they are excellent.
The one cautionary note is the health of superstar guard Cassius Winston. He is expected to play, however if he does not, this game will be a no bet for me. The Spartans need all hands on deck to win and cover against a competitive Iowa squad that will be emotionally at their peak.
Elon vs College of Charleston UNDER 142, 7pm
These teams constantly play each-other to the under, specifically the last 6 times in their series, so I’m making a small play with the trend. The total opened at 141 and has risen to 142 so I will try it under.
In addition to their series under trend, Elon’s last 3 away games overall have gone under as well as Charleston’s last 5/7 having stayed below the posted total.
As a rule I’m not huge on totals so every team mentioned consider it a minor play for us.
Tulsa +13 over Cincinnati, 7pm
The line here is fairly close, I make Cincinnati a raw 11 point favorite, but the trends favor the underdog. Tulsa has covered the last 2 times they played each-other, including one just 14 days ago, and Tulsa is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Meanwhile Cincinnati has won but not covered their last 2 home games. This tilt could result in an outright victory for Tulsa although the odds are the favorite wins but does not cover.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Counter-Intuitive?
South Alabama +9 over UL Lafayette, 8pm
This pick will appear to be backwards. South Alabama has been bad on the road, sometimes losing very badly. They have lost to Lafayette straight up and ATS the last 4 times they have played. This line opened Lafayette 9 1/2 and has immediately moved up to a strong ten. Update – back to 9 1/2.
It’s the raw number that is reeling me in here. I make the game South Alabama 3 on a neutral court, so even though all the trends and prior results scream Lafayette, I will be taking the dog.
Detroit +6 over Illinois-Chicago, 8pm
The road team has covered the last 3 in the series, and Detroit is another team hot on the road this season, going 7-2 ATS.
This is a close call as Ill-Chi can play well at home off and on, but my raw number has Detroit a slight favorite on a neutral court and 6 points is too much of a home court advantage number to give a good road team like Detroit. Let’s try them tonight.
Washington +3 over Oregon, 9pm
A battle of 2 good teams. Oregon has won and covered the last 3 in the series, but I am on Wash today because of their recent performance. Over their last 3 road games the Huskies have demolished the spread, covering the number by a combined total of 40 points.
They seem to relish the road, while the Ducks have struggled to cover at home, dropping their last 3/4 ATS. Overall, Washington has covered their last 7 (getting the proper number) and are too hot for me to fade.
Arizona PK over USC, 9pm
Arizona has won and covered the last 4 in the series and have fared well against the Pac-12 in general accruing a 7-2 ATS record in the last 9, and while USC has a good home record overall they fare better as a chalk favorite rather than a pick or a dog.
This time of year in college basketball road teams from a 2 point dog to a 2 point favorite have better results than their home counterparts. Let’s see what happens tonight for us on Arizona.
Cal Santa Barbara +1 over CS Fullerton, 10pm
Here is another example of a close spread game where the road team has the better value. It’s also a reverse I am playing off the opening number, as CSB started as the favorite and now the home team is 1. In fact DraftKings sportsbook has now gone to 1 1/2 along with Pinnacle so Fullerton is being steamed.
The value of the number 1 in basketball has half the value of a 2, so if the line jumps there or catapults higher I will make CSB a stronger play. My raw number is CSB 5 on a neutral floor.
CSB stacks up well on the stat side also. They have covered the last 2 in the series and 7/9 dating back to 2014. They are 15-5 ATS on the road and 3/4, while CSF has covered 1 of their last 4 at home.
San Francisco -20 over Portland, 10pm
While Portland did cover when these 2 teams met last season, SF has controlled the series covering 8/10 dating back to 2013. This season, while SF is not a powerhouse, Portland simply gets blown out too often and this should be a high percentage play for us.
The line opened SF 21 1/2 and has now dropped to 20 at DraftKings and Pinnacle, so we are getting a slight advantage in the line.
Don’t think because the spread is high that the numbers are worth less – lines in this area, between 20 and 24, hit with a higher frequency than a lay person would guess. Maybe because it’s a pure game, no wild fouling at the end, that games land (middle) here often, or maybe it’s just what’s happened when I am involved but I have seen it plenty of times. Please always strive to obtain the best number.
St Marys CA – 1 1/2 over BYU, 11pm
This line opened STM -3 and has dropped to 1 1/2. If we can get a -1 this will be an extra play.
St. Marys has covered the last 6/7 in the series and is on a mini roll winning and covering their last 4 games. BYU is struggling a little here recently, dropping 7/9 ATS with one of their wins being a 17 point favorite cover over Portland who is getting blown out by everyone.
My feeling is this move down will not last, so if you see either a -1 on STM or a good money line I would lay it. My guess is that the number goes higher later in the afternoon.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Solid Over
Samford vs Wofford OVER 146 1/2, 7pm
This appears to be a workable over trend to play here. The last 9/10 games in the series have gone over, with the last 5 closing totals being between 142 – 157. We are not getting up-charged at 146 1/2.
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In addition, Samford’s last 8 games overall have seen 7 overs while Wofford is over on 6 of its last 9. As a reminder, regardless of the trends or the situation I always play totals with some caution.
SE Missouri State -2 over SIU Edwardsville, 8:45pm
My raw number is SEM -5 on a neutral court so this line is a play for me. It opened higher at -4 1/2 and has come down to 2 already, however I don’t see injuries or any other reason yet that I should adjust the raw number.
Watch for some development unforeseen as of now that may nullify this play, but if not, -2 is good here.
Eastern Illinois +2 over Tennessee-Martin, 8:30pm
E ILL has covered the last 4 in the series and 6/7. They are playing very well on the road this season covering 4/5, with the only loss coming as a 23 point dog to Iowa State. TM in contrast has dropped 8/9 ATS, with a caution they have played more competitively at home.
I have E ILL as a 4 point favorite on a neutral floor, so with that and the current trend I am willing to try E ILL at +2 or better.
These are the games I will be playing tonight and I will post on twitter any developments I see that would alter or nullify any of these plays. I will also twitter if any additional plays turn up.