Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NBA and NCAA basketball picks.
This series is going to be dedicated to finding those diamond in the rough NCAA basketball picks (money lines mostly) that pay a nice return but come with heavy risk. I mean, who wants to bet on the favorite anyways?
Although last night only saw our underdog picks go 1-2, that 1 happened to be a nice +300 win for George Mason. With a massive slate of games on tonight, let’s sift through the dozens of garbage lines to find some games that should offer a little more value.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks
#6 Michigan State Spartans vs #19 Iowa Hawkeyes – 7:00pm ET
Michigan State comes into this match-up as one of the hottest teams in the nation. With a laundry list of quality wins to their name and their only defeats coming at the hands of Kansas and Louisville, the Spartans have put together one of the most impressive resumes in college basketball.
In true Tom Izzo style, the Spartans are a fierce defensive unit and play an extremely physical brand of defense meant to wear down the opposing team.
However, these Spartans have an added element of 3 point shooting and as a result are one of the most effective offensive units in the nation. From what we’ve seen so far, this is one of Izzo’s most well-rounded teams in recent memory (and that’s saying something).
Perennially overlooked, the Iowa Hawkeyes have quietly had a brilliant year so far. One of their 3 losses on the year came to this very same Spartans team, however this time around the Hawkeyes get the pleasure of hosting the Spartans.
Despite being blown out their first time around, the Hawkeyes responded nicely and bounced back with a number of quality conference wins. Iowa loves to get up and down the court and play through athletic big man Tyler Cook.
When Cook gets going, he is a beast on the boards and a high-energy finisher around the basket, so look for Iowa to try to get him the ball early and often to set the tone.
While Michigan State is without a doubt one of the best teams in the nation, the ranked road favorite curse of 2018-2019 is alive and well.
Iowa is going to come out angry and trying to earn back a bit of respect after the beat-down Michigan State gave them in East Lansing. Look for the Hawkeyes to get Cook going early and to ride the energy of the home crowd as they grind out an extremely ugly upset over the Spartans.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: Iowa Hawkeyes (+180)
Monmouth Hawks vs Canisius Golden Griffins – 7:00pm ET
As a MAAC alumni myself (Red Foxes, baby), I have to show the little guys some love from time to time.
Monmouth heads to Canisius in a showdown between MAAC heavyweights. Monmoth comes into the match-up scorching hot with 4 straight wins in MAAC play. Without a true offensive star, the Hawks play a slow and steady brand of basketball meant to limit possessions and score easy buckets off turnovers.
While over-matched against some of the tougher programs they faced out of conference, their brand of basketball has generated clear positive results within the MAAC.
Unlike the Hawks, Canisius does happen to have a true offensive weapon that they typically run their offense through. Sophomore guard Takal Molson is shouldering a much higher amount of the scoring load (albeit at a slightly less effective clip) and has upped his scoring average by nearly 4 points per game. While Molson struggles from deep, but doesn’t hesitate to chuck away.
That said, he uses his size and athleticism to attack the basket well and generates the bulk of his points around the hoop. If Molson goes cold, Canisius is dead in the water, so look for Monmouth to make an extra effort to contain him.
Both teams are coming into the match-up with win streaks on the line and both sit near the top of the MAAC standings. This should be a close match-up but I’m going to lean Monmouth with this one for the simple fact that Canisius can’t seem to win a game at home.
Just 1-6 on the year in their own backyard and 1-3 on the year as a favorite, Canisius simply cannot win the games they are expected to. Look for Monmouth to establish that ugly brand of basketball early on as they grind out a road win.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: Monmouth Hawks (+180)
Miami Hurricanes vs Syracuse Orange – 8:00pm ET
The Miami Hurricanes head to the Carrier Dome to take on the Syracuse Orange in an ACC showdown. Despite their lackluster record in conference play, the Hurricanes are a better team than their record indicates.
Having started off ACC play with a brutal stretch of games, the Canes struggled to find their footing, yet kept themselves competitive against some very good basketball teams.
Although they face the vaunted Syracuse zone, they do possess one of the single best traits to beat the zone, 3 point shooting. Miami knocks down the deep ball at one of the better clips across the NCAA and should get plenty of open looks facing down a 2-3 zone.
Syracuse is coming off a huge win at Duke (predicted by yours truly) followed by a gritty win at Pitt. They are a team filled to the brim with veteran players and know how to handle themselves in high-stakes situations.
While they don’t shoot the 3 ball all that well, they get to the basket effectively and love to get the ball out in transition and run. Their zone scheme often throws teams out of sync early on leading to big runs for the Orange to start games out.
However, Syracuse does live and die with the zone and should teams catch fire from deep against them, they don’t have much of an answer defensively as the game goes on.
Once again, Miami is much better than their record would indicate. More so, this version of the Canes is efficient from deep and shoot it at an above average clip.
Although the Carrier Dome will undoubtedly be rocking, Syracuse is riding a bit TOO high following their wins and the Canes pose a perfect stylistic match-up to give them a reality check. Look for Syracuse to come out hot, but for the Canes to weather the storm by knocking down repeated big shots from deep before pulling away late.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Pick: Miami Hurricanes (+295)
That’s all for tonight’s underdog NCAA Basketball picks. Check back in to Fantasy CPR tomorrow for more underdog picks because nobody likes betting the favorite!