Barcelona travel to Girona for Catalan derby in the midst of impressive run of form

Barcelona are beginning to strengthen their grip on the Liga title as they enter their match against Girona at the weekend.

It’s taken five months, but Barcelona have started to reproduce the form which has seen them dominate the league in the last decade and put to rest worries over whether they were starting to decline. After a slow start to the season, their worst in years, Barca have started to find some consistency with seven consecutive league wins and five clean sheets in that spell.

In the first 13 matches of the campaign, the Catalans conceded 19 goals. However, a combination of key players, such as Gerard Pique, returning to form and Ernesto Valverde’s tinkering appears to have solved the defensive problems. The manager’s use of Ivan Rakitic as the middle center-back in possession, when Sergio Busquets isn’t in the team, is a recent example of that.

Barcelona haven’t dropped points in the league since they drew away at Atletico Madrid in late November and the first win in that run against Villarreal was the only time they haven’t comprehensively outperformed the opposition in terms of xG. They’re also heavily overperforming in front of goal with 56 goals from 45.64 xG, per Understat. For an ordinary team, that might suggest they’re about to regress, but when Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez are taking most of your shots, that’s not a given.

The gap between Barca and second-place Atletico Madrid is currently five points and Atleti have a tough match at home against Getafe, so this could be a chance for Barca to extend their lead. Atleti are the only team somewhat close to them because Real Madrid are 10 points adrift and Sevilla’s poor form has seen them slump down to fourth with a 13-point gap on the league leaders.

Girona’s numbers aren’t promising as they’ve only picked up three points in the last five matches and are overperforming in front of goal and defensively, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded from 21.76 xG and 32.52 xGA, per Understat. They’re only four points off the relegation places so they could be caught in a battle for survival if there isn’t an upturn in form. The league is still quite compact, though, and there are only seven points separating them from the European places.

In the reverse fixture, Girona did secure a 2-2 draw with Cristhian Stuani scoring both so they shouldn’t be underestimated by their local rivals, although a Clement Lenglet red card did change that game considerably. Barcelona were also still adjusting to the 4-3-3 formation after Valverde had mainly used a 4-4-2 system in his first season at the club due to the limitations of the squad.

Eusebio Sacristan has mainly used a 3-4-2-1 set-up this season, but in the reverse fixture, he did use a 3-5-2 formation so that his team would have two outlets in order to relieve spells of opposition pressure and put pressure on the two centre-backs. One of the two strikers is likely to track back in order to ensure they have a line of four in midfield in front of a back five which should make them hard to break down especially in central areas.

Valverde will use the 4-3-3 formation with Messi in his usual free role from the right wing, but Ousmane Dembele’s injury does present a conundrum over whether he should utilize Philippe Coutinho or Malcom. The French winger’s trickiness and dribbling ability in tight spaces would have been ideal at exploiting the space between the center-backs and wing-backs, but Malcom’s directness could also be useful in this regard.

Sergio Busquets and Messi have been rested for the midweek Copa del Rey match against Sevilla, so they should be fresh coming into this match which spells trouble for Girona considering their importance to the team’s style. Barcelona should have more than enough offensive firepower to come away with a victory and continue their strong run of form.