DraftKings NBA Picks January 25: That Freaking KAT

CHICAGO, IL – FEBRUARY 09: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves rebounds against the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on February 9, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bulls defeated the Timberwolves 114-113. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 25: That Freaking KAT

We are back up to ten games for our DraftKings NBA tournaments tonight. This could be our last chance to use Harden as the only offensive threat for Houston, but we have some really good options up front that make a Harden fade seem perfectly reasonable.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kemba Walker ($8,100): We play narratives all the time of one player on the team who is clearly the best option out of everyone else. With Walker it’s not because of injury, really. Zeller wasn’t a big part of the offense anyway. It’s just that he is about the only one that can create his own shot. Milwaukee is not a great matchup, but Walker has faced them twice already and come away with 95.5 DraftKings points in those two games. That’s an excellent return for the price.

Mike Conley ($7,700): Conley has faced the Kings three times already, and picked up 120.5 DraftKings points. That makes him well worth the price here. This shouldn’t be a blowout. Memphis really isn’t that good of a team, and they are starting to realize it. That just gives them a reason to let Conley run with this and see if he generates enough interest to get them something in return. Indiana has to be looking pretty hard at Conley right now.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($7,400): Bledsoe wasn’t all that great against Charlotte earlier this season, but he is playing very well right now. Bledsoe has at least 35 DraftKings points in five of the last six. The one that he missed still topped 30, and he hit 50 once in that span as well. Walker is good, but not great. Good may not be good enough against Bledsoe right now.

Jamal Murray ($7,100): Murray was a complete dud against Utah, which is kind of surprising. However, in the three meetings with Phoenix this year, Murray has racked up 148.5 DraftKings points. The myriad of injuries that the Nuggets have dealt with fueled some of that, but not all of it. Even if Murray only hits 40, he’s still got well over 5x value. This is a well worth going back to for this game.

Kris Dunn ($6,600): The Clippers are terrible against point guards. My problem with LaVine is that it takes a ceiling game for him to hit value. I don’t really get that feeling with Dunn. He has 68 DraftKings points over the last two games in two great matchups against the Hawks and Cavs. Expect Dunn to be right around 5x value again tonight.

Dark Horses:

Dennis Smith ($4,800): Smith played a whopping 37 minutes in his return to the court on Wednesday, and had one of his better games of the season with 33.5 DraftKings points. The Pistons are just as weak defending the point as the Clippers are, so Smith is a strong value play tonight, and it at least part of the reason that I’m not crazy about paying for Doncic.

Jerryd Bayless ($3,600): Bayless is only in play if Teague is out again, which I would expect in the second game of a back to back. Bayless has outdone Rose at the point over the last couple of games, and makes for a pretty good value play against Utah. However, if Mudiay is out, I would be more tempted to go with Trey Burke for around the same price. That is only for riverboat gamblers. You have to be willing to lose big to take on any Knicks guard right now.

My pick: Smith(PG); Bayless(PG)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 23: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets celebrates the 114-110 over the New York Knicks at the end of the game at Madison Square Garden on January 23, 2019 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($13,800): With Chris Paul tentatively expected back on Sunday, this is your last chance to play the Harden lottery for triple digits. It seems unlikely against Toronto, and this is a game where a blowout is possible. However, I don’t see how you fade him. Harden’s “bad” game with Paul out was still 55 DraftKings points. Judging by the way Harden’s ownership has been heading anyway, I would bet he’s only in the 30’s tonight. To me, he still has more upside than anyone, and it’s not really close.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,700): Fading Mitchell seems difficult right now. Even with Rubio back, Mitchell’s scoring has kept up, and his peripheral numbers are still strong. If you remember right, Mitchell started slowly last year as well and got hot as the weather got cold. We are seeing that again. This is a good matchup against Minnesota, who will probably have to throw Rose out there against him. Good luck! I like Mitchell a lot more than Beal on the traveling end of a back to back.

Honorable Mention:

Buddy Hield ($6,800): I’m still a little nervous about this price, but Hield has 109.25 DraftKings points in three games against Memphis so far this season. At this point, you are pretty much playing HIeld for his ceiling though. It’s worth chasing in a matchup like this. For those of you that like less risk, Bogdanovic is the way you want to go.

Evan Fournier ($5,600): Fournier laid a giant egg against Brooklyn, so that could push people off of him. I hope it does. Fournier has 68 DraftKings points in two games against Washington this year. This is one of the better matchups he can have anymore. I’m willing to overlook Brooklyn since they defend the wing pretty well. Fournier should bounce back nicely here.

Jeremy Lamb ($5,200): Lamb has turned into one of the more consistent producers out there. He has not been below 20 DraftKings points this calendar year. He has also averaged 29 DraftKings points against the Bucks this year. The solid production leaves Lamb as mostly a cash play. I don’t see where he has a huge game against Milwaukee here.

Dark Horses:

Dwyane Wade ($4,700): Wade has at least 20 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 12 games. This is a revenge game of sorts against Cleveland, a team that he went for 27 DraftKings points against earlier this year. The upside on Wade isn’t huge with the Heat mostly healthy right now, but he sees right about 24 minutes per game. It’s constant, and so is his production. You could do worse for a value pick.

Reggie Bullock ($4,400): The emergence of Kennard has led to some blanks from Bullock lately, and overall lower production, so he’s not the highest on my list of value picks anymore. However, most of the time Bullock is still at or near value. He’s worth a look if this is all you have left to spend.

Shabazz Napier ($3,600): If Dinwiddie is indeed going to be out with that knee injury, Napier is a chalky lock. I don’t think we can fade it though. It would make me view Russell a little higher, but the biggest impact would be with Napier. We would get around three games of outstanding value out of Napier starting tonight. Keep an eye on this situation.

My pick: Harden(SG), Napier(G); Napier(SG)

SAN ANTONIO, TX – JANUARY 3: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Toronto Raptors celebrates after he scored his fist basket against the San Antonio Spurs at AT&T Center on January 3, 2019 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that , by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kawhi Leonard ($9,500): The Raptors have made a priority out of keeping Kawhi well rested for a deep run this summer. He has had almost a week off now. They don’t really need him against Houston, but Leonard still needs reps. Giannis went nuts on the Rockets last week. Leonard isn’t quite that caliber, but it highlights the kind of upside that is there should this game stay close.

Tobias Harris ($8,200): This is a pretty weak position should you decide to fade Kawhi. That’s where Harris comes in. His usage is through the roof with Gallinari out. Harris is basically the Clippers offense. He has more around him than Harden, but not a whole lot. You can ride the one man gangs of Harden and Harris straight to a 120 DraftKings point floor tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Will Barton ($6,100): Barton went nuts on the Jazz in just 30 minutes on Wednesday. His price is still down due to injury and a weak comeback from said injury. However, if he can do that to a Jazz, Barton could rake against the Suns. Phoenix has done a pretty good job of keeping things pretty close, but that could end here. If it does, Barton’s upside takes a hit.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,600): Bogdan has 96 DraftKings points over the last two games, which isn’t helping Hield’s pedestrian lines of late. We have seen this a lot before though. They go back and forth a lot. There really isn’t any rhyme or reason as to who succeeds, Bogdanovic or Hield. Rarely do they both put up big games. Pick one, plant your flag, and stick with it. On a ten game slate though, you could avoid it entirely.

Kelly Oubre ($5,600): I really see no reason to avoid Oubre even though he isn’t starting. Oubre is still playing between 26 and 30 minutes per game. The Suns need scoring besides Booker, and Oubre is providing that. I would like to see a little better peripheral numbers, but we are where we are right now. That is with Oubre being a solid mid range play.

Dark Horses:

Terrence Ross ($5,100): Ross is one of those guys that we have to pick our spots with. This looks like a really good one. Ross has 59 DraftKinsg points in two games against the Wizards this year. He had also been over 22 DraftKings points in 11 straight before the Nets held him under on Wednesday. This is about as good as Ross value gets right here.

Justin Holiday ($4,100): Holiday is seeing huge minutes. He has played more than 36 in all but one game since Anderson went down. The problem is that Holiday has been under 20 DraftKings (but over 19) points in all but one of those. You’re getting 19.something from him. Is that enough? Not really. It’s probably better to throw a dart with Casspi.

Chandler Hutchison ($3,900): Even though Hutchison is playing 32-35 minutes per game, he has virtually no upside. Hutch has hit value just about every game, but he fits better with Harden in a cash line as opposed to GPP. However, if you are a season DFS player, you know that there is nothing wrong with having sure value in a GPP lineup either. You may not take the whole thing down, but a strong finish is more likely.

My pick: Hutchison(SF); Barton(SF), Ross(G)

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 21: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks takes a shot against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on December 21, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700): Sure, this looks like a bad matchup on paper. Giannis has proven it isn’t for him. In two games against the Hornets this year, Giannis has 118.25 DraftKings points. Giannis has only hit value twice in the last 11 games, though, but he has not been below 42 DraftKings points. That’s a decent enough floor, but we thought the same was true with KD last night. Durant busted, Westbrook went bonkers, and all the KD owners were out in the cold despite a decent 39. I would like more of a sure thing for this price, but we know Giannis is capable of huge numbers.

Blake Griffin ($9,900): I could give you several reasons not to play Griffin, but I’m not sure that’s a good idea. Griffin’s DraftKings point average against Dallas in 22 career games is right around 43 points. That’s below value at this price. However, Griffin has been outstanding lately. He has at least 45 DraftKings points in six straight games. Can he keep that going?

Honorable Mention:

Aaron Gordon ($6,500): This is a really good spot for Gordon. He has 79.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Wizards so far this year. That’s almost 6x value! Of course, Gordon should have smashed the Nets. He didn’t. Gordon’s play is so enigmatic that he is always a risky play even on a night where he should come up big.

Trevor Ariza ($6,300): Matchup after matchup, that red number beside Ariza’s name reads ominous. Game after game, Ariza blows past every projection. Ariza has become a big part of the Wizards’ balanced scoring attack with Wall out, but he hasn’t lost any of his defensive chops either. Ariza’s floor and ceiling are pretty high, even for this price and even in this matchup.

Bobby Portis ($5,700): Portis has really good upside since he plays a lot of minutes at center, a position the Clippers struggle to defend. Portis is an accomplished scorer and a good rebounder. I see him as a pretty low risk option tonight.

Dark Horses:

Kenneth Faried ($5,300): It seems as though coach D’Antoni wasn’t pulling our chain. Faried is putting up really good numbers in Houston. Faried has 53.5 DraftKings points in 49 minutes over two games in his Houston career. We would think that his minutes would only go up since he seems to fit in well here. Faried wasn’t used to getting significant run with the Nets. That’s going to change, and his price still makes Faried a good value.

Jae Crowder ($5,000): Crowder has been on a roll lately, putting up four straight games of more than 25 DraftKings points. Considering that Crowder put up 30.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Minnesota, I like the upside here. Crowder makes a solid value play tonight.

Dragan Bender ($4,600): Bender has been a lock for the last few games with both Ayton and Holmes out. Both are listed as questionable tonight, but I still doubt they play. It may not matter. Bender is not an automatic for me either way. This is a tough matchup in a game that may blow out. The Suns are going to need Bender’s size against Jokic, but it may not help.

My pick: Portis(PF), Faried(F); Antetokounmpo(PF), Faried(F)

ORLANDO, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 05: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic and Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets prepare for a foul shot in the second half at Amway Center on December 05, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Harry Aaron/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,600): Jokic has 178.25 DraftKings points in just three games against the Suns this year, and that was with Ayton. Jokic is going to absolutely abuse Bender. The prospect of a blowout makes me nervous, but I could see Jokic dropping more than 50 in three quarters of this game anyway. I still think his floor is pretty high.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000): Towns mauled Utah for 64 DraftKings points in the first meeting. He is pretty much the anti-Jokic tonight. Both have really good matchups, but where Jokic has the risk of a blowout and a decent supporting cast, Towns is the Minnesota offense and this game promises to stay close. I could get on board with using both and fading Harden. If I’m only using one though, it’s going to be Towns.

NIkola Vucevic ($9,700): With Jokic and Towns having such great matchups, I think Vucevic could largely be ignored. He shouldn’t be. Washington is weak in the middle, and Vucevic has 88.25 DraftKings points on them in just 62 minutes so far this year. Orlando’s pace isn’t really conducive to blowing anyone out, so I’m not really worried about that. Honestly, Vucevic is a pretty low risk option here.

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Honorable Mention:

Rudy Gobert ($8,500): Towns has really improved his defense this year, but Gobert still hung 51.75 DraftKings points on him in the first meeting. Gobert’s price isn’t that much of a bargain when we think of what the top three options could put up though, so I view him as a generally boring contrarian play.

Marc Gasol ($8,300): I really want to love this matchup for Gasol since the Kings are a disaster in the middle. Gasol also just gutted the Charlotte front in his last outing for his best all around game of the year. So what’s holding me up? Gasol is only averaging 33.7 DraftKings points in the three games against the Kings this year in 34 minutes per game.

Dark Horses:

Jarrett Allen ($5,800): In the Knicks’ quest to secure more ping pong balls, they have ignored a pretty solid center in Kanter. That leaves the middle pretty much open for Allen. He has 94.25 DraftKings points in three games against the Knicks so far. That’s a pretty solid value play here, though you would have to sacrifice the C or UTIL slot to get it.

Brook Lopez ($5,500): We just saw another athletic but somewhat undersized center destroy Charlotte from the inside. Lopez is a similar player to Gasol, but he has a lot more of a supporting cast around him. Still, this is one game where Lopez could have a big night, and the price is definitely right.

Enes Kanter ($4,700): It takes a special kind of jerk to inform a player that he is starting, then not only remove him from the starting lineup just before tipoff, but not let him play at all in the game. That’s just what Fizdale did to Kanter on Wednesday. Kanter has every right to be as pissed off as the DFS players that rostered him. HE’S PLAYING THE NETS, but his coach specializes in screwing over hard working veterans and DFS players alike. Do you really want to mess with this? On the other hand, Mitchell Robinson looks very safe and is $700 cheaper even though he is guaranteed to foul out in less than 20 minutes of court time.

My pick: Towns(C), Robinson(UTIL); Towns(C)

Next. NBA DFS top plays and fades January 25. dark

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