Welcome in to the Friday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have an exciting 10 game slate and yet again, James Harden has all the spotlight.
While we might have to deal with Chris Paul entering the picture very soon, it does not seem like he’ll play tonight which means James Harden is the decision on the slate. When I say decision, I’m more talking about who to play around Harden because I don’t plan to fade if Paul is still out. The matchup isn’t as good as Kawhi Leonard will grace us with his presence, but we all saw the ceiling of 90+ DK points last game. Even though Kawhi is a great defensive player, I’d rather Harden score a very expensive 55-60 than miss out on almost 100 points from one player. Let’s try to figure out who else we should be looking at in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – Ricky Rubio, Jazz
I haven’t used Rubio that often this season and the point guard position is pretty interesting tonight. If you play FanDuel, there’s a bit of a lack of depth up top. Kemba Walker and Mike Conley are the lone expensive options so my plan is to spend down a little bit there and spend at other positions. Enter Ricky Rubio at a very reasonable price tag.
Rubio should be back towards his normal allotment of minutes since he was only four minutes under his average in this past game. He draws a Wolves team that has to travel into Utah on a back to back, which could lead to some sloppy play and they already allow the most assists to point guards in the NBA. Take all of these factors and mix in a little revenge for Rubio, and he should be a very solid asset tonight. It’s well worth spending down into this range in my view.
Honorable Mention – Kris Dunn, Bulls
Fade – Eric Bledsoe, Bucks
I have to give Bledsoe credit as he’s been playing extremely well for a little while now. Still, the price is out of hand and on a slate with Harden, you need every dollar. If you decide to fade Harden, there are multiple studs in great spots to pay for. I would have a very difficult time paying for Bledsoe in this spot and on the slate overall. Just from a point guard position, there are at least four or five cheaper players that make more sense to me.
This will be the third time the Bucks have played the Hornets this year and Bledsoe wasn’t very good in the first two games. He only averaged 17 points, 3.5 assists and 2.5 rebounds which would be under 30 DK points without any steals or turnovers factored in. If you got that level of production tonight, it would be tough to recover from that at the price you have to pay. Charlotte has been about average against point guards this year and there’s just no reason to go this route.
Honorable Mention – Kyle Lowry, Raptors
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – D’Angelo Russell, Nets
This possibly marks the first time Russell has made this article and for a while, he was one of my least favorite players in DFS. I could never get him right because any night I played him, he stunk and when I passed on him, he went crazy banana pants. There’s still a little bit of that fear because coach Kenny Atkinson can still be stingy with minutes, but there’s a couple of reasons I don’t think Russell sees low minutes tonight.
For one, the Nets are actually fighting for a playoff berth. I’m not sure if a lot of people saw that one coming, but here we are with Brooklyn currently sitting in the sixth seed in the East and three games over .500. Russell has been one of the reasons for that and they need to keep the momentum going. Secondly, it appears that Spencer Dinwiddie will be out for a length of time with a hand injury. Without Dinwiddie, Shabazz Napier(a fine punt himself if Dinwiddie is out) is one of the only other options in the backcourt that can handle the ball. The Knicks are in the bottom 10 in DK points given up to both guard positions, so Russell finds himself in a great spot despite the higher than normal price tag.
Honorable Mention – Bogdan Bogdanovich, Kings
Fade – Bradley Beal, Wizards
It’s kind of odd because I don’t truly dislike Beal tonight. He could have a solid game, even at his sky-high price on FD. When you’re such a big part of the offense for any team, there’s always potential for a massive game despite matchup, back to back situation, etc… but the problem becomes justifying his salary compared to the other studs on this slate, even if you left Harden out of the picture. On FD, there are three players that are within $800 of Beal that I would rather find the money to play in Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic and Nikola Vucevic.
They don’t carry the perception of it, but the Magic are a solid defensive team. They only give up the 15th most points, fifth most points and ninth fewest assists. There’s just nothing on paper that makes me run towards this matchup, especially when we compare who the three players mentioned earlier are playing tonight. DK’s pricing is a little bit better on Beal but you run into the exact same issue that there are better plays around him, albeit at different positions.
Honorable Mention – Lou Williams, Clippers
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Kelly Oubre, Suns
This one is slightly subject to change because the Suns may or may not be short-handed in this one. If they are once again, Oubre is going to probably be a very popular play on DK because his price actually went down $100 and he posted 34 minutes and had a monster game last night. Since joining the Suns, Oubre has started to find his groove off the bench and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue tonight.
The nice thing with Oubre is he can do a little bit of everything. Last night he blocked a couple of shots, had some steals and was involved in rebounding and assists. That’s the kind of player that I gravitate towards because I hate leaning on scoring dependent guys. The floor is just so low for them and Oubre has started to become more consistent in the secondary fantasy categories. He’s a nice play if the Suns get healthy and if they’re down multiple players again, he catapults into a fantastic player.
Honorable Mention – Will Barton, Nuggets(especially cheap on FD)
Fade – Tobias Harris, Clippers
It can be a little hard to say that a player that has to do so much for an offense right now can be a fade, but I want a different player from the Clippers that we’ll get to in a minute. As for Harris, he’s shown some ceiling and some floor in the three games since Danilo Gallinari went down with an injury. This is a calculated risk to fade that high of a potential ceiling, but the floor of 30-35 points is too real at that price tag. In the past week, the usage has only gone up about one percent. His big games have come when he’s shot 60 percent from the floor or better, which is a small concern.
Chicago is(perhaps curiously) pretty good against small forwards this season. They give up the 10th fewest DK points to the position and the thing that has potential to hurt Harris most s they give up the sixth fewest real points. Harris needs to approach 50 DK points for 6x value and if he’s struggling to score, there’s almost no route to him paying off the tag. I like Harris as a player a lot but won’t have very much of him tonight, if any at all.
Honorable Mention – Kevin Knox, Knicks
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – Montrezl Harrell, Clippers
For as much as I don’t want Harris, I will take all of the Montrezl Harrell in this spot. The last time the Bulls were on the slate, I wrote up Jon Collins against their joke of an interior defense. A big part of that reason was how much work Collins did in the paint, and he rewarded me with 50+ Dk points that night. The spot is extremely similar for Harrell tonight and he’s cheaper than Collins was, meaning that I’m all over him tonight.
As a refresher, the Bulls are in the bottom eight in points and rebound given up in the paint on the season. Harrell is 12th in paint touches and 10th in paint points per game, despite his limited minutes when compared to some of the other leaders. That’s extremely impressive and I have a hard time seeing many scenarios where Harrell doesn’t hit 6x on his tag tonight. My only fear is starting hasn’t worked out for him yet, but the in the He should do whatever he wants down low.
Honorable Mention – Kenneth Faried, Rockets
Fade – Blake Griffin, Pistons
This is another spot that isn’t fully about the player, but it’s about the price. The past couple games have seen Griffin playing without Andre Drummond, who was out with a concussion. Drummond went through practice and has been cleared to return to the starting lineup, which in turn makes Griffin just a little too expensive on either site. That holds especially true when you look at other players in his price range.
With Drummond back on the court, Griffin takes a hit in the usage rate by almost five percent and the FPPM by about .15. That might not sound like a ton, but when you’re paying a premium for any player, every little bit matters. There are multiple players that are cheaper on both sites that are in better spots and don’t see that level of reduction. Typically when both players have been in the lineup, neither has been much over $9,3000 or so on DK unless it was an incredible matchup. This isn’t the spot nor the price to use Griffin tonight.
Honorable Mention – Josh Jackson, Suns
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
*Note – There is a possibility that the Joker could be suspended for leaving the bench on Wednesday night to join a scuffle. If he is, pivot to Nikola Vucevic as the top play
Let’s start at the top here – the blowout concerns are real. The spread isn’t up for this game yet, but the Suns on a back to back in Denver isn’t an ideal spot for a close game. I can totally understand if that worries people and you can go Vucevic in that scenario as well. However, even if Denver rolls in this game, I think Jokic might be worth the price of admission even in limited minutes.
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The Suns could be without Deandre Ayton and Richaun Holmes again tonight, and that would leave Dragan Bender and Quicny Acy to guard Jokic. You might not get worse results if you threw me in there and the Joker would put me in a blender while going 10 percent of his game speed. Bender and Acy would be mere nuisances against Jokic and he has triple double upside even more than normal tonight. With Gary Harris and Will Barton back in the fold, it just makes the offense even more dangerous and everything runs through the Joker. If Phoenix manages to keep close, the big man could touch 80 fantasy points tonight.
Honorable Mention – Vucevic
Fade – DeAndre Jordan, Mavericks
I hate using Jordan in two scenarios. One is when he faces off against another excellent rebounding center because so much of the value Jordan has is gobbling up missed shots. Jordan is averaging 14 rebounds a night which is behind Andre Drummond at 14.9 who Jordan happens to be facing tonight. The other scenario is when he puts together some good games and the price climbs above $7,000 on DK and he checks in tonight at $7,100. Those are two fairly big red flags to me in the same game, so I’m out on Jordan tonight.
Jordan is sixth in paint touches and Drummond has him in that category as well. Detroit as a team is in the top 10 in paint points and rebounds given up, so that avenue for Jordan seems closed. If those aren’t going well for him, there’s no path for him to do much of anything. At a $7,000+ price tag, he could literally derail your entire lineup and I won’t take a chance on a one-dimensional player.
Honorable Mention – Marc Gasol, Grizzlies
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