NBA Daily Fantasy GPP Plays: Jan. 25th – Kawhi Not?
By Joe Metz
NBA Daily Fantasy GPP Plays: January 25th
Welcome to the FIRST edition of the NBA Daily Fantasy GPP Plays! With so many NBA articles but no strict tournament focus, this will be your stop for tournament-oriented plays on FanDuel and DraftKings.
While I typically cover NBA DFS stacks, I have been finding it increasingly more interesting to target leverage plays, which goes hand-in-hand with stacking, since it is a rather unpopular strategy in NBA DFS. With that being said, however, I figured putting together a GPP article series would be a quicker and easier read for those of you building lines.
As I’ve mentioned in my previous articles, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on and I will recommend what I view to be the best way to find some leverage in your GPP formats.
What’s important to remember in GPP formats is that fading the chalk is not a necessity. Take Wednesday night for example, when James Harden posted 95 FanDuel points. There was likely no winning GPP lineup without him in it and he was 98%+ owned in cash games. What I like to do is recommend eating the good chalk, and differentiating your lineup elsewhere, especially when there’s a stud pivot that has a super enticing matchup that could go under the radar.
With that being said, I will take you position by position and outline my two favorite GPP options and also give you my best educated guess at who the chalk at the respective positions will be.
NBA Daily Fantasy GPP Plays: Point Guard
Projected chalk: Jamal Murray, Derrick Rose (if Teague sits), Shabazz Napier
Mike Conley | MEM (vs SAC) | FanDuel: $8,400 / DraftKings: $7,700
Conley has been frustrating to roster due to inconsistencies as an individual and for the Grizzlies as a team this season, but his spot tonight could not get better. The Kings allow the 5th most FDP per game (47.8) and 5th most DKP (49.0) per game to opposing point guards and his recent form has been excellent.
Over his last 2 games, he’s averaged 25.5 points, 4.5 assists, 3 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game. He’s seen at least 35 minutes in both contests after a 23-minute outing a few games ago and given the fact that this game should stay close, he should see a full compliment again tonight.
Tomas Satoransky | WAS (@ ORL) | FanDuel: $6,000 / DraftKings: $5,500
This was a bit of a tough call given his heightened salary (especially on FD), but he’s flashed his ceiling and man is it high. His last blowup game came against a much tougher defense (MIL) in which he posted a 18/12/10 triple double with a pair of steals. As I am writing this article, Satoransky has 11 points, 3 assists and 2 steals before halftime against the Warriors, on pace for another stellar outing.
Without Wall, Satoransky sees a 1.5% bump in usage rate and averages just under a fantasy point per minute. While his floor is low, his 45-50 point ceiling gives us the 7-8x upside we target in tournaments in a cupcake matchup.
Other options: Kris Dunn, D.J. Augustin
NBA Daily Fantasy GPP Plays: Shooting Guard
Projected chalk: James Harden (even with CP3 back), D’Angelo Russell
Donovan Mitchell | UTA (vs MIN) | FanDuel: $8,500 / DraftKings: $8,700
I fully expect the masses to go back to the well with Harden, but with Chris Paul potentially returning, I have less of a problem fading tonight than I would have in slates past. Mitchell, on the other hand, has been on another level lately.
Over his last 8 games, he’s averaged 31.4 points, 5.6 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 34.6 minutes per game. In that span, he’s rocked a 37.7% usage rate and 1.44 FPPM production rate. I expect virtually nobody to play him given the fact that Harden should be a priority for most, and with how hot D-Russ has been in the same price range. Fire him up with confidence against Andrew Wiggins defense, or lack thereof.
Tim Hardaway Jr. | NYK (@ BKN) | FanDuel: $6,000 / DraftKings: $5,900
Am I writing up THJ because he’s the ultimate GPP play, or to schmooze my boss Brian? Well, both, I guess!
Hardaway has been much less productive than we would’ve expected this season, but the Knicks have been a dumpster fire from the get-go in their chase for Zion. He has, however, come to life over his last two games. He’s posted 20+ points in back to back games and save 35 minutes last game for the first time since January 4th against the Lakers. With Enes Kanter being phased out, THJ should continue to see ample opportunity, as he shot the ball 16 times last game.
This game should carry a tight spread and a reasonably high over/under. If the Knicks want to sneak out a win (and that’s actually a valid question of IF), then I would expect THJ to be a big part at a reduced price.
Other options: Zach LaVine, Lou Williams
NBA Daily Fantasy GPP Plays: Small Forward
Projected Chalk: Tobias Harris, Kelly Oubre
Kawhi Leonard | TOR (@ HOU) | FanDuel: $10,300 / DraftKings: $9,500
After sitting out to rest for the last 4 games, Leonard is set to make his return in a marquee matchup against the red hot Rockets. Before he sat out for a week, Leonard had posted 31 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists and a ridiculous 3.8 steals per game over his last 5. His price, however, has not much reflected the surge.
The matchup with the Rockets is one where I’d expect Leonard to see as many minutes as he can handle and where his 32.1% usage rate should shine. In his last 5 games against the Rockets, he’s averaged 22 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. All 5 happened to be with the Spurs, where his rates were lower than they are this season as well. Expect a huge outing at low ownership here.
Will Barton | DEN (vs PHO) | FanDuel: $5,100 / DraftKings: $6,100
Much like THJ, Barton profiles as the ultimate GPP play tonight for a handful of reasons. Not only is he still somewhat working his way back from injury, his production lately has been disappointing and this game is a blowout waiting to happen. Why should you target Barton then? To hopefully get ahead of the masses.
Barton is one of those players that you ride when they’re hot, and if last game is any indication, his slump could be over. In 29 minutes last game against the Jazz, he posted 22 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and a steal and a block. This was his highest point total and minute allotment since his return from injury. He also shot 8-13 from the field, a massive improvement from his 26.5% FG% over his previous games. There’s a high level of risk here, but a ton of potential given the fact that he should go virtually unowned in a smash spot.
Other options: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Trevor Ariza
NBA Daily Fantasy GPP Plays: Power Forward
Projected chalk: Blake Griffin, Josh Jackson
Marvin Bagley III | SAC (@ MEM) | FanDuel: $5,800 / DraftKings: $5,300
Whether Nemanja Bjelica is active or not, I think we’ve gotten to a point where Bagley should garner a much larger role in the rotation. Last game with Bjelica out, Bagley drew the start and posted 22 points, 11 revounds, 2 blocks, an assist and a steal in a season-high 37 minutes. The astounding part was the fact that he attempted 20 field goals.
While the Grizzlies allow the least amount of fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards, Bagley is priced at a reasonable enough point where he should have no problem hitting 4-5x (given the minutes) and has the potential to smash value at low ownership.
Bobby Portis | CHI (vs LAC) | FanDuel: $5,300 / DraftKings: $5,700
Reduced price, perfect matchup, explosive point-per-minute production? Sign me up!
Bobby Portis has forever been the low-floor / sky-high ceiling player, but with Wendell Carter out and Jabari Parker now up in the air with an injury, he should see an expanded role against the Clippers. With just Carter off of the court, Portis holds a 26.4% usage rate and produces at a 1.12 fantasy point-per-minute clip, 2nd on the team. The Clippers, on the other hand, allow the 2nd most FDP per game (52.8) and 2nd most DKP (51.7) to opposing PFs. As long as he gets the minutes, he’ll get the production.
Other options: Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr.
NBA Daily Fantasy GPP Plays: Center
Projected chalk: Nikola Jokic
Marc Gasol | MEM (vs SAC) | FanDuel: $8,000 / DraftKings: $8,300
This blurb will echo the Mike Conley blurb a bit, as the matchup could not get more ideal for Gasol. It’s a pace-up spot, a game that should carry a tight spread and a defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing centers.
More from FanSided
- Caesars and PointsBet Promo Codes: $1,750 Bonus For ANY World Cup or MLB Game!
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
With Nikola Jokic’s recent form and matchup, I fully expect people to try and pay up for him, when you could get Gasol for a $2k+ discount who comes in just as hot. Over his last 2 games, he’s averaged 22 points, 12.5 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals per game. He’s also seen an average of 36 minutes over those two contests. I fully expect this train to keep on rolling at an extreme discount tonight and he comes in as my favorite center play on the slate when factoring in salary.
Bismack Biyombo | CHA (@ MIL) | FanDuel: $4,800 / DraftKings: $4,100
The last time I wrote up Biyombo was when I wrote up CHA as a GPP stack and boy oh boy did he flop, so proceed with caution here, but his recent form has made him a viable option.
Biyombo has seen at least 21 minutes in 5 of his last 6 games, topping 22 FDP in all 5 of those same games. He’s also posted 2 double-doubles in his last 3 games and has recorded at least 10 rebounds in 3 straight. His recent surge has been headlined by a 11 point, 13 rebound, 5 block outing in 27 minutes against the Suns. By no means is this an easy matchup, but he should have ample opportunity at the rim with Giannis driving and plenty of rebounding to do as the Bucks launch a ton of threes.
My hope here is that he’ll also receive blowout run given their lack of front-court depth, which could heighten his floor, making him a viable value option at the center position in GPPs.
Other options: Nikola Vucevic, Rudy Gobert
Next. FanDuel NBA DFS Slate Breakdown - Friday, January 25. dark