NBA DFS Picks and Pivots Friday, January 25
Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
What a wild slate Thursday Night ended up being as we got late news, although before lock thankfully, that Julius Randle would be out for an already short-handed Pelicans team. I will be honest, I wavered on sticking with the Thunder/Pelicans stack with the blowout risk but I did not see a pivot I felt more comfortable with and I was not going to change my research at the last minute and I am glad I stayed the course as Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Jrue Holiday were three of the top 4 point scorers on the night, combining for nearly 200 fantasy points as a trio. I had a serious sweat going on at the top of the GPP leader board heading into the second half of the Lakers/Wolves game but big second half performances from KAT, who was the highest owned play on the slate, and Rajon Rondo knocked me back but still had a strong night and hopefully you did too!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Friday Night NBA DFS Slate Breakdown:
One quick note – FantasyDraft has once again optned to ignore the lone 7PM EST game (Wizards/Magic) and start this slate at 730PM EST which I have been a huge fan of – it should give us extra time for injury news which is always a big help!
Well here we go again, another slate with James Harden pushing to new price levels at $24.6K and the same old question on what you do with him. If you read Picks and Pivots or frankly any of our content at Fantasy CPR, you likely know the story by now – we simply do not fade him. I continue to make the case, especially on FantasyDraft with their pricing that his presence in your line-up does not hinder the rest of your build nearly as much as you think – in fact, you can lock him in tonight and you still have $10.7K per player for the rest of your build.
This Rockets/Raptors game has one of the highest totals on the board at 228 but it also happens to be one of the slower paced games on the slate. Harden to me is simply match-up proof with a ceiling you have to shoehorn in as long as the Rockets are this short-handed.
Speaking of short-handed, the interesting news to watch here is the status of Chris Paul, who was upgraded to questionable yesterday but it sounds like he is still a day or two away.
Source: All signs pointing to Chris Paul (left hamstring) making his return Sunday vs. Orlando, or Tuesday vs. New Orleans.
— Kelly Iko (@KellyIko) January 24, 2019
If CP3 were to play, his addition to the court plus the match-up would make the price a real tough pillow to swallow for Harden but I also think we could get him at incredibly low ownership as the masses will jump ship once CP3 return and the price demands a ceiling game every night.
All that being said, the reports are that he is unlikely to play which means that Harden and his 80-90 point outings seemingly every night are right back in play tonight. Harden was “only” 70% owned in GPP’s against the Knicks – again meaning 30% of people are getting too cute – with the price going up, the tougher match-up and maybe the pending return of CP3 scaring folks away – if this number is south of 70% tonight, then I think you have a massive advantage on the field by locking him in and taking the clear path to points.
NBA DFS – Build Around the Beard:
The Knicks-Nets will face-off tonight in Brooklyn in what should be a fascinating game to watch for NY basketball fans. If you haven’t been paying attention outside of DFS, this Brooklyn team is playing some of the best basketball in the NBA and for the first time in a long time are the clear kings of the NY hoop scene as the Knicks are in total turmoil. We have a high total at 224 and a pace up game environment and I have to say – when is the last time Brooklyn was 10 point favorites against their cross-town rivals?
Over the last 10 games, Brooklyn is playing at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA and this match-up with the Knicks comes at an opportune time as they rank 4th worst in the league in defensive rating over that time, giving up the 5th most points per night to their opposition.
What stands out to me in this game is that we have a player pool that will be limited due to injuries on both sides and price points that sit perfectly in that $10-$11K range we mentioned would be our price point if we lock in James Harden.
It all starts with D’Angelo Russell ($16.4K) who is playing perhaps the best basketball of his career right now and the fantasy outputs are just phenomenal – with 54, 55 and 58 fantasy points in his last three games. With the injury to Spencer Dinwiddie, it puts even more on the shoulders of D-Russ and removes one of the biggest potential caps to his production on any given night.
Over the last week, Russell has a 36% usage rate, and has now put up 21, 25, 25 and 26 FGA in four of his last five games. I say this all the time with Russell, he has elite level usage and volume and his price point is never high enough for a guy with 50-60 point ceilings on any given night. He needs 49 fantasy points to hit value at this price point, which based off his recent production, tonight’s match-up and loss of Dinwiddie, feels like an easy floor to each with considerable profit potential.
The Nets will be without Dinwiddie, Allen Crabbe, Caris LeVert and Jared Dudley tonight while Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is questionable with a shoulder injury that required him to leave last game.
RHJ is the news to watch here as his absence would mean big minutes for the trio of DeMarre Carroll, Rodions Kurus and Treveon Graham while we should see a nice uptick in the playing time of Shabazz Napier who will take on Dinwiddie’s role in the backcourt.
Outside of Jarrett Allen ($11.7K), none of the other Nets here are over $10K so this becomes a great mix/match spot to use Brooklyn value around Harden and easily fit in the best play from this game in Russell.
NBA DFS – Run it back with some Knicks?
It may seem crazy that the Nets rotation is the safest spot to target here based off how Brooklyn has been in recent years, but with the absolute turmoil in the Knicks locker room right now – playing anyone here is risky.
The Knicks will be without Luke Kornet tonight and David Fizdale trolled us all by saying Enes Kanter would start then making him a DNP-CD which prompted a trade request. We love targeting “Centers Versus Brooklyn” but who is that tonight? The Knicks started Lance Thomas against the Rockets but that was a team without a true 5 – I really wonder if they can get away with that tonight with Jarrett Allen on the other side of this game.
Could that mean Mitchell Robinson ($7.7K) draws the start at the 5 tonight for the Knicks? Robinson is a high point per minute producer with some elite shot blocking skills and we have seen him put up 22 and 23 FPTS in his last two games without playing over 20 minutes in either. Robinson is in play whether he starts or not, although I do think a starting nod would spike his ownership considerably.
The other news here is that Emmanuel Mudiay is questionable to play after he missed practice on Thursday with a shoulder injury which could mean that either Frank Ntilkina or Trey Burke gets added run at the PG spot.
As I mentioned, FantasyDraft is kicking this slate off at 7:30PM EST which is when this game starts so we should have all the news and starting lineups for this game that we need.
Let’s not bury the lead here though – the trio of Tim Hardaway Jr., Noah Vonleh and Kevin Knox is where I think you start your builds if you want Knicks exposure. Vonleh has played back to back games with 30 minutes and tends to see his ceiling games in this pace up spots while Knox had a nice bounce back against the Rockets with 15 FGA and 30 fantasy points in a well-rounded outing.
The THJ call should not surprise anyone in this article but I think it becomes the contrarian play here as everyone chases Allono Trier ($8.7K). Trier is coming off a monster 50+ fantasy point outing with a career-high in scoring and there is a clear divide right now between Trier and THJ.
Tim Hardaway Jr. pops off at Allonzo Trier heading into the last timeout for the Knicks. He looked angry that Trier didn't hit him with a pass on a 2-on-1 break and THJ was open near the basket. Looks like some expletives were shared. pic.twitter.com/cZ42kunsBe
— Mike Vorkunov (@MikeVorkunov) January 24, 2019
Not only did they exchange words on the court as shown here, but Trier foolishly called out THJ’s lack of defensive assignment in a Twitter DM that went viral after Eric Gordon hit the game winner against them. Listen Trier is still priced too low considering the ceiling he has shown but my guess is that is ownership becomes inflated here tonight and in watching that game in the first half, Hardaway looked as aggressive as I have seen him play in weeks. This is just a hunch, but could Hardaway look to send a message to the rookie here and try to take this game over like we have seen him do before. If Trier is going to be significantly higher owned considering the game log and price savings – give me all the THJ in GPP play!
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Remember – this is simply an illustrative example and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup.
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G: James Harden
G: D’Angelo Russell
G: Tim Hardaway Jr.
F/C: Jarrett Allen
F/C: Kevin Knox
F/C: Noah Vonleh
UTIL: Mitchell Robinson
UTIL: Shabazz Napier
Slate Overview: At first glance this slate screams GPP appeal to me – there are no real obvious plays or must have game environments – in fact, of the 9 games on the FantasyDraft slate, only one has a spread right now under 8 and overall, 13 of the 18 teams see neutral or pace decreases.
Ultimately it all comes back to James Harden for me – and I love the idea of using him as my one-off and finding a game stack in the mid-range that makes it work. This is where that Nets/Knicks game becomes very appealing in that context as the fourth fastest projected pace game on the slate and full of injury news/potential value and a whole lot of upside.
Stay locked into the news tonight and remember you get an extra half hour before lock in this one!
Good luck all!
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