DraftKings NBA Picks January 26: Just lock Jokic in

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 14: Lou Williams #23 of the LA Clippers reacts trailing the New Orleans Pelicans during a 121-117 loss at Staples Center on January 14, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 26: Wipe the drool off your chin and lock Jokic in

There are only five games for our DraftKings NBA tournaments after a big slate last night. The Pelicans and Spurs, both operating with skeleton crews right now, were exiled to showdown mode only. That robs us of some value. There is only one healthy player priced in five figures,, and he is in a huge spot. We have our lock. Who goes with him?

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($9,600): The status of Butler doesn’t matter much to me. Embiid is out. That alone makes Simmons someone to key in on. Even better, Embiid’s absence opens up some value in the Philly frontcourt. Denver is a solid defensive team, but they still like to move the ball up and down the court. There are going to be plenty of opportunities for Simmons tonight. He could be in line for his second straight triple double.

Damian Lillard ($8,900): Lillard played just 30 minutes in the easy win over Phoenix, and the same fate could await him tonight. Lillard still put up 39.75 DraftKings points in that 30 minutes, but that leaves us a little under value. I can’t justify fading Simmons or Jokic just to put Lillard in there in what will likely be another truncated outing because of a blowout.

Honorable Mention:

Trae Young ($6,400): Young’s price is reasonable enough for the numbers he has been putting up. Young has only been below 30 DraftKings points twice in January, and both of those were above 25. Young hasn’t had one of those games where the bottom falls out and he gets single digits lately. There isn’t much value in the middle at the point, so Young is in play here. He’s about as good as it gets if you have around $6,500 to spend.

Darren Collison ($5,600): Collison has 107 DraftKings points over the last three games, including games against Dallas and Toronto, who are pretty good defensively. Memphis has struggled defending the point, but they make up for that by slowing the game down to a crawl. It wont matter for Collison. Oladipo is done for the year, and Collison is going to put up huge numbers from here on out.

Dark Horses:

Jeremy Lin ($4,200): You never want to play a guy banking on a blowout, but at least Lin plays solid minutes anyway. The Hawks aren’t running Lin much more than 30 minutes per game, which leaves a solid number available to Lin since he is backing up both guard slots. Lin has only been under 17 DraftKings points once in January. That’s a pretty good floor for a value play.

Seth Curry ($3,300): Curry played a season high 30 minutes in the Blazers win over the Suns. Some of that had to deal with the blowout nature of the game, but not all of it. Portland used Curry as the backup to both guard slots, and he responded with 36 DraftKings points. He is a very low risk proposition since the Hawks look like another blowout anyway.

My pick: Simmons(PG), Collison(G)

DENVER, COLORADO – JANUARY 19: Will Barton #5 of the Denver Nuggets plays the Cleveland Cavaliers at the Pepsi Center on January 19, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

C.J. McCollum ($6,600): I don’t really like this price on McCollum, but the Portland offense is arguably the most guard heavy in the league. Atlanta’s guard defense is atrocious. This is nothing new. If you roll with either Lillard or McCollum tonight, you are hoping for the Portland guards to be the reason this is a blowout. On a short slate though, I don’t know if we are doing anyone a favor by ignoring both. There is a real chance that Lillard is a top five scorer on the night even if he only plays 30 minutes.

Will Barton ($6,500): Barton put up a solid night last night, but not for what he cost. The Nuggets took it easy on him since they blew out the Suns even without Jokic. I would expect a heavier workload for Barton here when they will likely need him. The Sixers are good even without Embiid. I’ll take Barton’s ability against Redick’s defense any day.

Honorable Mention:

Klay Thompson ($5,900): For as hot as Thopmson was on Monday, he was equally cold on Thursday. However, given Boston’s defense, I’m less crazy about Curry and would rather roll the dice with Thompson for $3,200 less. Honestly, I likely wont play either one, but Klay is a decent dart if you want exposure to the Warriors in case they go off.

Tyreke Evans ($5,200): Evans will start at shooting guard with Oladipo out. This was a piece that the Pacers didn’t really have the first time Oladipo went down. However, that price looks a little steep since Evans played 27 minutes against the Raptors and still only managed 22.75 DraftKings points. Can Evans even play 30+ minutes a night anymore? I think I would rather take a chance on Holiday here, or just leave it alone until we have a better idea of how this is going to play out.

Dark Horses:

T.J. McConnell ($4,000): McConnell keeps playing about 20 minutes and putting up about 20 DraftKings points. We can do worse than that hunting for value. There isn’t much for upside here, but if you want to try and cram Jokic and Simmons in the lineup, you need to find value somewhere. This is as good a place as any.

Aaron Holiday ($3,300): Holiday is going to play big minutes with Oladipo out, presumably off the bench. At any rate, he’s going to play around 25 minutes for a very low price. Cory Joseph is worth a look if he ends up starting an moving Collison off the ball. I expect the Pacers to toy with a few things and see what works. Joseph is worth a flier, but Holiday is almost a lock at this price.

My pick: Holiday(SG)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 24: Kevin Durant #35 and Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors celebrate in the second half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena on January 24, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Durant ($9,200): Durant’s east coast swing isn’t off to a great start, but this is a decent spot for Durant. Many will lay off because it’s Boston, but Durant has averaged 43 DraftKings points per game against the Celtics in 16 tries. There is decent upside if you want to take a run at Boston here.

Honorable Mention:

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,400): Does anyone remember what Bogdanovic did when Oladipo was out earlier this year? He was putting up around 40 DraftKings points a game most times due to the elevated scoring. I like Bogdanovic a lot with Oladipo out. Collison can score, but he’s still mostly a creator. That leaves a lot of extra shots for Bojan to pick up.

Taurean Prince ($5,000): Prince’s minutes are starting to get back to where they were before he got injured, and so is the production. I like this more if Kevin Huerter is still out, which looks to be the case. This is also a great matchup with Portland. They still struggle with small forwards. Prince is in a good spot here.

Dark Horses:

Andre Iguodala ($3,900): If you have read my articles before, you already know that Iguodala is one of my favorite punts because he sees good minutes whether the game is a blowout or not. There is really no upside for Iguodala besides the low price and consistent production. Take for example the case of Justin Holiday. Holiday sees lots of minutes starting for the Grizzlies, but he hasn’t outscored Iggy yet. Yet Holiday is $500 more thanks to his guaranteed minutes.

Corey Brewer ($3,800): With Jimmy Butler being classified as doubtful, it looks as though Brewer will get another start. Brewer is nothing special, but with Embiid out, he may have to take on a larger role in the offense. That bodes well for using him since the minutes are going to be there.

My pick: Bogdanovic(SF)

ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 05: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks reacts after being charged with a foul against the Washington Wizards at State Farm Arena on December 5, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

John Collins ($8,000): Collins continues to put up really strong numbers. The Hawks aren’t going to run him more than 32 minutes on any given night. They seem to be preserving him for the future. However, Collins has proven than he can put up big numbers despite the unwritten minutes limit. He’s worth the slight risk against Portland.

Draymond Green ($6,300): I hinted before that my interest in Golden State was mostly in the cheaper players. Green certainly qualifies with his price in this range. Green has played the Celtics a dozen times in his career and averaged 33 DraftKings points per game. That’s almost exactly what he needs for 5x value. There isn’t a lot of upside here, but Green is a very low risk play.

Honorable Mention:

Thaddeus Young ($5,800): Memphis is pretty strong up front, so this isn’t really a place I want to attack. However, Young did pick up 28 DraftKings points on the Grizzlies the first time around. Young was a monster on Thursday, taking up a lot of the scoring slack left by Oladipo. If this is going to be normal going forward, Young is way too cheap.

Paul Millsap ($5,000): Millsap put up huge numbers in just 22 minutes against the Suns last night. That means Millsap will still be fresh for tonight against Philly. Millsap will slide back over to the four, which is quite clearly the Sixers’ worst defensive position. This looks like another really strong game for Millsap.

Dark Horses:

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,500): Aminu played just 16 minutes against the Suns since he really wasn’t needed any more than that. That could also be Aminu’s fate tonight, so using him feels like a pretty big risk. However, his still set translates well against the Hawks. If the Hawks manage to stay close, Aminu could put up big numbers for the price.

Jake Layman ($3,500): Layman put up some huge numbers on the Suns on Thursday. Yes, some of that was garbage time, but Layman was playing well before then. Layman isn’t going to be able to supplant Aminu anytime soon,but if this is another blowout, Layman should have ample opportunity to showcase his scoring prowess again.

My pick: Millsap(PF)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 24: DeMarcus Cousins #0 of the Golden State Warriors walks off the court in the first half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena on January 24, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,700): Embiid is out, which means that Jokic is going to get to tee off on Muscala tonight. Wipe that drool of you chin and lock him in! This could be a huge game for Jokic tonight.

Jusuf Nurkic ($8,600): Nurkic was underwhelming on Thursday, but that had everything to do with him only playing 24 minutes. That could be his fate here again tonight. There are so many good options at center that I think we can safely avoid thei one all together, as we can at many other positions. Why play roulette with a possible blowout if we don’t have to?

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Honorable Mention:

DeMarcus Cousins ($6,200): Cousins still seems to be on an unspecified minutes limit, but it doesn’t matter. He’s hitting 30. DraftKings has adjusted the price to the point where Boogie isn’t a huge value play anymore, but his minutes do keep increasing slightly every time out. If that keeps up, Cousins should play around 26 minutes. He can do a lot of damage in that time, especially against an undersized Boston front.

Dewayne Dedmon ($5,100): The Hawks have a pretty good looking young front, but the same fate awaits Dedmon as John Collins. Neither of them are going to see big minutes. Dedmon is more of a risk facing off with Nurkic, but his price is also low enough that he should still hit value. There are better options at center. I think the value can be found elsewhere. I see Dedmon as more of a cash game pivot than GPP punt.

Dark Horses:

Mike Muscala ($4,200): This is your GPP punt. With Embiid already ruled out, the guessing is as well. Muscala almost always starts for Embiid. He’s not going to play a ton of minutes, but Muscala is averaging almost 26 DraftKings points per game starting for Embiid this year. That puts Muscala above 6x value.

Kevon Looney ($4,000): Looney is playing so strongly off the bench that he really hasn’t been losing that many minutes even with Boogie playing more. Looney’s numbers are actually better off the bench than they were as a starter. I don’t like the Boston matchup here, but with Looney’s price still this low, he’s an interesting punt.

My pick: Jokic(C), Cousins(F), Muscala(UTIL)

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