NBA DFS Picks and Pivots Saturday, January 26
Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
What in the name of Moses Malone happened last night? I play NBA DFS every single day and I cannot remember putting together a worse lineup – I had no late scratches, no random court flooding – everyone in my James Harden and NY game stack was out there. Well maybe, it would have been better if they did have a court flooding because my lineup was BRUTAL. I ended the night with 207 fantasy points, good for second to last in the $25 Pick and Roll. So I would like to take this opportunity to apologize to you the reader, my bankroll and my Mama – this was a straight up butt-whooping of a night and I am simply going to pretend it didn’t exist. Good – thank you.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Saturday Slate Breakdown and a Free Roll!
Before we jump into this four game slate, let’s bounce back today and build that bankroll with another Picks and Pivots FREE ROLL from our friends at FantasyDraft with $50 of NBA DFS tickets up for grabs!
Let’s start breaking down this four game slate which kicks off at 8PM EST with the big time injury news which is likely to determine much of how you build your rosters tonight.
Joel Embiid has already been ruled OUT, while Jimmy Butler is doubtful to play against the Nuggets who will welcome Nikola Jokic back after a one game suspension but may be without Jamal Murray who left last night’s game with an ankle injury and was seen in a walking boot after the game, but maintained he will play today.
Let’s start with the Philly side here – it is going to be hard to avoid having exposure to Ben Simmons ($17.7K) tonight with the other two Philly stars out and although there is always an argument for fading the chalk, this may be the right chalk to simply eat. Over the last month with both Embiid/Butler off the court, Simmons has a team-high 36% usage rate with 1.44 FP/M.
We have no had a game yet this season where both Embiid and Butler missed, but it would seem likely the Sixers will roll out a starting five of Simmons, JJ Redick ($11K) and a combination of Corey Brewer, Jonah Bolden and Mike Muscala. FantasyDraft did a good job of making you at least think twice with guys like Muscala/Bolden, pricing them up to $8K as they would be impossible to pass in the $6K range.
The Simmons/Sixers Value build and running it back with Nikola Jokic ($19.6K) on the other side is a viable build today and if someone like Murray were to sit, it would push Monte Morris ($6.8K) into the starting unit as another elite value play.
I think this will be a popular spot and with good reason – but can you just go back and read that starting lineup for Philly again – Simmons, Reddick, Brewer, Muscala and Bolden.
It is hard enough to go into Denver and play a fully healthy Nuggets team on a normal night – but how exactly is THIS team going to put up points? The Nuggets have a strong inside defensive presence, tough wing defenders that can chase around Simmons/Redick and overall a team D ranked 6th in defensive efficiency.
I understand the plays here and can see it in cash games, but there is some serious blowout risk in my mind and with other superstars on this slate, if Simmons/Jokic falter at high(er) ownership, this could be an interesting fade in GPP’s.
NBA DFS – NBA Finals Preview?
Tonight’s Warriors/Celtics game which kicks off at 8:30PM EST on ABC is simply put – a must watch game for NBA fans in what could very likely be a preview of the NBA Finals. None of this should surprise you, but this game has the highest total (229.5), closest spread (2) and checks in as the second highest projected pace spot on the slate.
The issue with this game is you have two loaded squads, where the fantasy production can be spread among any of 5-7 guys on each team and studs are all priced up which means it becomes very difficult to stack but I will say, FantasyDraft did a nice job of pricing this where it IS possible and I think it’s a path worth exploring.
Let’s start with the Warriors – we now have a solid sample size with Demarcus Cousins on the floor for over 60 minutes where we can start to gauge the impact on the other Warriors stars. In those minutes, Steph Curry ($16.7K) sees a massive 15.7% usage rate decrease while Kevin Durant ($16.7K) is down well over 9% while seeing their per 36 FP production drop 10 and 3 points respectively.
Those are massive drops, and sure it is a small sample size, but it is something we need to keep watching but look at the price points for the Warriors stars – they are coming down in line with those roles. Curry is $1K cheaper than Ben Simmons and KD is $3K cheaper than Nikola Jokic – I get the usage drop and the fact that this is a tough match-up but there becomes a point in which you need to consider price enforcing here.
In my opinion, Curry, KD and Draymond Green ($12.5K) are where I would focus my builds as Boogie at $12K is priced a bit too high for his minutes right now and Klay Thompson ($11.3K) is going to have Marcus Smart (likely) shadowing him around. I suppose Brad Stevens could put Smart on Curry and let Kyrie chase Klay around which could be an interesting tourney pivot, but previous meetings last season showed Klay did not crack 30 FPTS in either meeting with Boston.
The Celtics are very much like the Warriors in we have a deep team where the usage is spread out and normally on larger slates, when healthy these are not teams I would prioritize but tonight may be an exception. Kyrie Irving ($17K) is one a heater right now, putting up 63 fantasy points in three of his last four games and is sporting a 33% usage rate with 1.6 FP/M over the last two weeks.
Now Kyrie is really the one “pricey” play from this Boston side as the rest of the starting five – Marcus Smart ($9.6K), Al Horford ($11K), Marcus Morris ($9.4K) and Jayson Tatum ($11.3K) are all priced fairly and make game stacking the starting units here a viable path.
It may seem crazy to think that the Warriors and Celtics stars in this primetime match-up will be over-looked on a four game slate but I really do think its possible with so much focus in the DFS community on the injury news with Philly/Denver and with many being wary to lock in the stars here with both squads being at full health.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this is just a sample lineup, meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a plug and play lineup.
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G: Kyrie Irving
G: Marcus Smart
F/C: Kevin Durant
F/C: Draymond Green
F/C: Marcus Morris
UTIL: Jayson Tatum
UTIL: $6.9K Player
Slate Overview: When I first opened up this slate, the injury news led me down the path of locking in Ben Simmons without Embiid/Butler on the court and running it back with The Joker and my thinking is that this becomes the logical spot for many tonight.
Stacking the Warriors/Celtics is honestly not something I even thought I COULD do – as this is not a game with any real value and both teams are fully healthy but the pricing on FantasyDraft is staggered in such a way where it is actually doable and doesn’t feel all that restrictive.
Depending on the value we get in the Sixers/Nuggets game, you could take the approach of using 1-2 punt players from there and locking in the stars in what has to be considered the best pure NBA game of the night.
For a four game slate, this looks like it could be a great one – make sure you get in that FREE ROLL and have a great Saturday!
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