Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got a huge Saturday schedule ahead and I will attempt to find you a good slate of winners.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the lives lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is significantly worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are the key to my value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games that move at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Some lines will be better than you see on here from the night before, some the same and some worse. Disregard any play that is significantly off the number listed, has an unexpected injury, or any other factor not known before the day of the game that would negatively impact our play. I am playing these games also and will tweet when I can find anything important.
Last Thursday, January 24th, I handicapped 16 games. winning 10 of them. Analysis of every game consists of the number I make the game, which I call the raw number, and the associated trends within the game including and especially how the teams are currently playing.
Sometimes you will see a stat saying team X has covered 8/10, then upon examination you see that team lost the last 2 in a row. Stats can be a trap so I filter them out for you.
Having said that, let’s get to our NCAA basketball best bets. I will be going thru these games in time order; if the strength of the play deviates from the standard unit it will be pointed out as the game is discussed. All times Eastern. Here we go:
NCAA basketball best bets to win starts now:
Iowa State +1 over Mississippi, noon.
This is a battle of 2 good teams, both with 14 wins on the season. Iowa State is coming off a near miss at Kansas, while Mississippi is playing very well at home. My raw number is Iowa State by 6 on a neutral court, and maybe I’m not giving the home team enough credit but I’m taking ISU.
Ole Miss looked bad at Alabama last time out and sometimes it’s hard to immediately get back into form even when coming home.
Virginia -11 1/2 over Notre Dame, 1 pm
Virginia is on an incredible ATS run, covering their last 9 games in a row. Meanwhile Notre Dame has lost its last 5/6 to the number.
Normally this would not be a good spot to press the favorite as the lines-maker should have adjusted or even over compensated by now, but my raw number is 23 and that’s enough for me to try the Cavaliers again.
South Alabama +9 over UL Monroe, 3 pm
This is very similar to last Thursday’s game when S Alabama was getting 10 points only because they have played very poorly (gotten wiped out) on the road especially early in the season. However they have covered 6/7 now with 2 covers on the road.
UL Monroe is on a great spread streak of their own having covered their last 7 in a row; but my raw number is South Alabama by 2 on a neutral floor, so let’s take South Alabama plus the points again. It worked 2 days ago.
Utah State -7 over New Mexico, 4 pm
I believe this is an over compensation by the bookmaker in this line as Utah State has posted an ATS loss in 6/7 coming into this match-up. New Mexico has not been great ATS but they have been okay. My raw number is 15 giving credit for 3 points home court advantage and that’s enough for me to try the favorite.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Huskies Roll
Washington +2 over Oregon State, 4 pm
My raw number is Washington by 5 which is not dramatically off the current line, but the Huskies fare well on the road and have a pretty good streak going.
They have covered 6 straight and came thru for us last Thursday in a low scoring tight game. Oregon State has been playing well too, but I think Washington has enough to take us home a winner.
Northern Illinois +4 over Akron, 5 pm
Northern Illinois is coming off a big home underdog win and is looking to continue that good play on the road at Akron. Akron has dropped their last 6 in a row ATS.
My raw number is close at N Ill by 1, but the propensity to hang close and the recent struggles by Akron to win tight games means I will try the away team here.
Texas State +2 1/2 over Georgia Southern, 5 pm
Texas State is 17-3 straight up this season and has covered 3 in a row, while Georgia Southern who is 12-8 has dropped its last 4/5 including the last game losing at home as a 10 point favorite.
My number here is Texas State by 5 and with the way these 2 teams are going in different directions, I am willing to try the dog and hope they post another money line win as well.
Coastal Carolina -1 over Arkansas State, 5 pm
This game appears straight forward and I’m not going to overthink it – CC has covered the last 2 in the series, they are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 road games, they have won and covered their last 2 games overall, and Arkansas State has lost their last 6 to the line.
My raw number is CC by 8 which would be 5 adjusted for home court advantage, and the recent trends will keep me on this play. Go Coastal!
Evansville +4 over Northern Iowa, 8 pm
Both teams are not doing anything great either recently or on the season, with each team slightly below 500 straight up and back and forth versus the spread. This play is simply based on my number indicating Evansville to be a small favorite. I’ll take the 4 points here.
UNLV +6 over San Diego State, 8 pm
This line opened 4 and was immediately bet up to 6, as trend analysis has the home favorite looking good. While UNLV is 9-27 ATS on the road, SDG is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home encounters.
In addition, UNLV was crushed last year on the road in the series by 38 points as a 4 point dog. However as easy as the favorite looks, I make UNLV a slight favorite and the move here is too strong for my liking. I will be fading it and taking at least 6 points in this game.
Troy +6 over Lafayette, 8 pm
This line again is pulled way off by the recent poor play of Troy and the better record Lafayette is showing. I don’t get it, maybe my thinking is wrong, but I make Troy a 5 point favorite and that’s already adjusting for home court advantage.
Every stat screams Lafayette, including Troy going 2-7 last 9 in their series dating back to 2013; but that’s why the line is so far off in my opinion. I am fading the trends here and taking the dog.
Colorado +2 over Stanford, 8 pm
Every game has a different dynamic and this one is no different. Both teams are faring badly to the spread this season, and nothing can be gleamed from line movement because there is none, at least not so far. Stanford opened 2 and that is where it is as of this writing.
I am taking Colorado because I make them a slight favorite adjusting for home court advantage and, crazily, they have covered the last 9 games in their series dating back to 2013. Some trends are weird but worth noticing so here we are – on Colorado.
Drake -1 over Valparaiso, 8 pm
Valparaiso has won and covered the last and only 3 games in this series, and they have won their last 2 home games convincingly to the line. I believe that is the reason Drake is almost a pick tonight while my raw number has them a 9 point favorite.
Recent play won’t shake me away from Drake either, as they have covered their last 5 to the spread including 2 wins on the road. I think we have enough evidence to try Drake.
NCAA basketball Best Plays To Win – Lay The Favorite
Cal State Fullerton -6 1/2 over Cal Poly Slo, 10 pm
This is one of those games where a quick look at the statistics can fool you. At first glance we see CSF going 2-6 in their last 8 road games; however looking at the details we find they have covered their last 2/3, and they have also covered the last 5 in the series.
The raw number I have is CSF by 16 on a neutral floor. CPS has not shown enough to dissolve this advantage, and have in fact gone 2-7 ATS overall in their last 9 lined games.
Arizona +2 over UCLA, 10 pm
Arizona flatlined on us last Thursday losing by 23 on a pick game. They have done this before this season but each time in the last 10 games they have bounced back with an ATS win, avoiding back to back ATS losses each time.
My line has Arizona winning even after adjusting for home court, so I am going with this number along with the bounce back trend and will try Arizona once again.
Added Games
Murray State -18 over Tennessee State, 8pm
I make Murray State a 28 point favorite after adjusting for home court, and this should be enough to cover the current 18 points. This line opened at 19. Normally there will be some give, in high spreads, to factor in the winning team substituting 2nd string players after the game itself is no longer in doubt.
This allows many back door covers to occur, but in this case Murray should be able to handle this weaker team. Be a little cautious here as Murray has stumbled ATS their last 2 games. I like the line going our way, and as I mentioned last article, these upper area spreads either side of 20 seem to land a lot.
The actual stats say they fall in proportion to other numbers, but it has been my experience with the games I’ve been involved in that spreads in this area mean more than average. This line could be anywhere by the time you read this article, but I would lay no more than 18.