Why Thierry Henry deserved to be sacked by Monaco

The numbers show that Monaco’s decision to dismiss Thierry Henry was entirely justified.

Thierry Henry’s first match in charge of Monaco saw them lose 2-1 away to Strasbourg. His final league game was a 5-1 home defeat against the same opposition. The conclusion seemed obvious: From a very poor starting position, Monaco had gone backwards since Henry had replaced Leonardo Jardim in October.

When we looked at Monaco’s numbers around the time of Jardim’s sacking, it appeared they were a little unlucky to be so low in the league table. So the obvious question now is: Can the same be said of Henry?

One easy way to gauge whether Henry has been unfortunate is to look at Monaco’s expected goals numbers during his time there. These are a very good indicator of whether results have matched performances — in other words, if Monaco have gotten what they deserved.

As you can see, under Henry Monaco outperformed their opponents in the league on just three occasions in xG terms. Even more damningly, they only did so once after October.

The only two sides that Henry managed to beat in the league were fellow relegation-battlers Caen and Amiens. Those clubs have the 17th- and 14th-highest budgets of Ligue 1’s 20 teams respectively. Monaco have the third-largest, behind only PSG and Lyon.

Looking at the club’s league positions during Henry’s tenure, it’s clear that Monaco had flatlined with him in charge.

Monaco’s awful form hasn’t been confined to Ligue 1, either. In 18 games under Henry in all competitions, they scored more than once on only two occasions. His very last match in charge saw Monaco knocked out of the French cup by second-tier Metz on Tuesday.

In four Champions League games with Henry in the dugout, they scored one goal and earned one point. Those matches included a chastening 4-0 home loss to group A’s supposed minnows, Club Brugge. Monaco eventually finished bottom by five points in a group that contained a team from Belgium.

While it would be a tad unfair to say that Henry had done nothing to deserve such a high-profile job in the first place — he’d gained his UEFA A Licence and had worked as a coach in Arsenal’s youth setup and with the Belgium national team — this was his first full-time role, and it showed.

He eventually fell out with both his own players and opponents. A man who had made playing the game seem so effortless was clearly struggling to cope with the demands of management.

The introduction of Franck Passi into the Monaco coaching setup just before Christmas was a sign that Henry might be on borrowed time. Passi had already served as a caretaker boss at both Marseille and Lille in recent years, and it’s a role that he’ll fulfill again on Saturday for Monaco’s away match against Dijon.

Monaco’s new permanent manager will of course be Leonardo Jardim, the man Henry replaced in October. Jardim, who led Monaco to the French league title in 2017, hadn’t taken another job since his dismissal and continued to live in Monaco.

Comparing the top-line defensive and attacking stats for Monaco under the two coaches this season, it isn’t hard to see why this decision was made.

It seems extraordinary that under the guidance of one of the greatest forwards of the modern game, Monaco went backward in every single top-line attacking metric. Their goals per game fell from a poor 1.0 to a dreadful 0.87. The quality of their overall chances in xG terms dropped by 30 percent, and the average quality of those goalscoring opportunities declined from 0.112xG/shot to 0.098 xG/shot.

The story was much the same when it came to defensive metrics. Although the number of shots that they allowed opponents fell slightly and the shots on target figures remained the same, both the average and total quality of those chances rose. It’s little surprise, then, that Monaco’s goals conceded per game went up from 1.44 to 1.92.

While Henry averaged slightly more points than Jardim had at the beginning of the season, it’s important to note that Henry’s 0.75 points per game return would have seen the club relegated in every season this decade. In fact, it would have had them rock bottom of the table in many of those campaigns. And that’s almost where he left the club: 19th out of 20 teams in the league.

So Henry hasn’t been unlucky. Monaco got what they deserved while he was in charge. And now, so has Henry himself.