Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NBA and NCAA basketball picks.
As always the goal of this series is to find those diamond in the rough NCAA basketball picks underdog teams that offer some real value on the money line. After a short slate of games on Friday, we’re back in action with a massive slate of games today.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Baylor Bears – 12:00pm ET
Alabama has quietly had an extremely solid run in conference play so far. Despite only sitting at 3-3, those 3 losses have come against ranked Kentucky, LSU, and Tennessee. On top of that Alabama played all three of those top 25 teams extremely close.
Alabama doesn’t excel on either side of the ball, but instead plays a physical and gritty brand of basketball. They don’t necessarily try to grind the game to a halt, but more so go out with a chip on their shoulder looking to outwork the other team.
In the absence of last year’s freshman phenom, Collin Sexton, the Crimson Tide have adopted a much more balanced offensive attack. While the offense can stagnate from time to time, the Crimson Tide have a knack for coming up with big buckets when they need them most (i.e. against Kentucky). It’s safe to say that the Crimson Tide are a legit basketball team capable of hanging with any team in the country.
Meanwhile, Baylor has posted an extremely solid season so far in their own right. Owners of a 3 game win streak (including one over ranked Texas Tech), the Bears are undoubtedly a good basketball team. However, their team stats aren’t indicative of their overall play.
Despite allowing only 64 points per game, most of those strong defensive performances came against small mid-major programs. When presented with a competent offense, Baylor has shown they are vulnerable on the defensive end as they fail to come up with key stops when they need one.
Although the Crimson Tide are on the road here, they aren’t too heavy of underdogs and for good reason. This should be an extremely entertaining matchup, but look for Alabama to answer any Baylor run before sneaking away with this late.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: Alabama Crimson Tide (+145)
Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina State Wolfpack – 2:00pm ET
Clemson is a team that I want to love but continually lets me down. The seemingly come out of the gates red hot (or at least playing competent basketball) in almost all their match-ups before losing that initial burst of energy and basically falling apart down the stretch.
With that said, Clemson undoubtedly has the ability and raw talent to play with just about any program out there. They dominated wire to wire against a very good South Carolina team just a month ago and looked the part of a legitimate contender.
The key for the Tigers is consistency. If they can play with the passion and energy they bring out of the gates throughout the entire game, they stand a good chance to beat (or at least hang with) some of the better teams the ACC has to offer.
North Carolina State looked great heading into conference play with just a single loss to Wisconsin on their resume. However, since ACC play began, they have been more or less exposed for beating up on inferior opponents. More recently, they dropped a contest to conference doormat Wake Forrest.
The Wolfpack are basically a gatekeeper to the top tier in the ACC, unable to run with the big dogs but able to beat up on the weaker crop of conference opponents. They do ferociously hit the boards and despite having a lesser crop of pure raw talent compared to their conference foes, their goal is to simply outwork you each and every game.
One of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, the Wolfpack do a great job of giving their offense extra possessions and keeping the ball out of their opponents hands.
The Wolfpack should offer a great test to the talented, but mercurial Tigers. While this is a risky bet given that we don’t know which Clemson team will show up, the fact remains that when Clemson is at their best, they are the better team.
Once again, this one might be a bit biased due to me falling in love with their style of play, but I see a lot of potential and value in this underrated Clemson squad.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: Clemson Tigers (+220)
Utah State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos – 4:00pm ET
Utah State is 14-5, however, have only played 5 good programs (and subsequently have lost each match-up). Led by junior guard Sam Merrill, their offense feasts on inferior defenses and Merrill averages a very solid 18 points per game. However, when faced with a solid defensive unit, the Aggies have struggled to break 50 points (Nevada and Houston).
The Aggies are a textbook team that has great stats, but simply isn’t as good as those stats indicate. They faced an extremely weak non-conference schedule and their conference wins have all come against struggling MWC opponents.
New Mexico sits at the exact opposite end of the spectrum. Despite posting a sub .500 record on the season, the Lobos are a team that battles hard and faced a higher quality of non-conference opponents compared to the Aggies.
More than battling hard, the Lobos have the distinct pleasure of being the only team to hand Nevada a loss on the year, a testament to this team’s potential when at their best. Kansas transfer Carlton Bragg has steadily improved throughout the year and is showing himself to be a reliable option down low for the Lobos as they move forward through MWC play.
This is a classic overrated vs underrated match-up. New Mexico is better than their record indicates and should be looking to get back on track here in front of their home crowd. Look for the Lobos to control this game wire to wire in a statement win over a team that looks great on paper.
Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: New Mexico Lobos (+240)
Check back abain for another edition of the “Basketball Parlay of the Day” series on Fantasy CPR!