FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sunday, 1/27 – Don’t Fade the Freak!
By Dan Palyo
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sunday, 1/27
Welcome back to a special Sunday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.
We have a seven-game main slate on a Sunday! The NBA is taking advantage of there being no meaningful football today (sorry the Pro Bowl is not meaningful in any way) and rolling out a bunch of games on a Sunday. We could be in for a treat as there are several really good games tonight in both real life and fantasy.
Last night the Celtics-Warriors game was every bit as good as I hoped it would be. If you’re playing a lot of NBA DFS, I hope you’re also getting a chance to watch these players in action as it makes the game more exciting to watch when you have something at stake AND it goes a long way to helping you understand which players play well together and which players thrive in certain matchups or game environments.
"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."
My goal when I revamped the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.
As always, let’s take a quick look at our injury situation and Vegas data to get us started.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: 7-Game Sunday
Injury Report
OUT: Lonzo Ball, LeBron James, Tyus Jones, Jeff Teague, Emmanuel Mudiay, Goran Dragic, De’Anthony Melton, Raul Neto, Clint Capela, Thabo Sefolosha, Markieff Morris, Robert Covington, T.J. Warren, Luke Kornet, Jonas Valanciunas
Doubtful: NONE
Questionable: Derrick Rose, Tyler Johnson, DeMar DeRozan, Davis Bertans, Kyle Kuzma, Richaun Holmes, DeAndre Ayton, Mo Bamba
Probable: Danny Green, Rudy Gay, Gorgui Dieng
Most of the same names here that were expecting but some important guys with Q-tags in DeRozan, Kuzma, Rose and the Phoenix big men.
Vegas Info
The highest total tonight as of now belongs to the Bucks-Thunder game at 233 and it’s only a one point spread. This will be a game that we want to target tonight!
There are still 4 out of the 7 games tonight without a spread or total, so make sure you check those Vegas lines as they come in today!
I don’t need all the Vegas info to get you started with my cash game core, let’s go!
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core
Welcome to the cash game core plays section of the Breakdown! I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to keep your bankroll up, otherwise, a cold week in tournaments will have you running out of funds quickly.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (11700)
I’m prioritizing Giannis over any other 10K+ player tonight in cash games. The Bucks-Thunder game projects to be the highest scoring of the night and should be played at a breakneck pace as both of these teams like to play fast. Giannis provides us a solid floor for a full 2k less than Harden tonight and 600 less than Westbrook. I love the Freak tonight and you can only get exposure to him on FanDuel as Draftkings didn’t include this 6:00 on their main slate.
Rajon Rondo (6700)
I had 100% Rondo the other night and I’ll probably go all in tonight, too. He looked great in his return from injury and played 37 minutes. He’s going to be running the Lake show until LeBron gets back and he can score fantasy points in bunches. He’s an easy cash play, don’t overthink this one tonight.
Kenneth Faried (6400)
The “Manimal” is back in full effect. After bouncing around teams looking for a home, Faried has found one in Houston and he’s providing some much-needed scoring, toughness and rebounding inside for them. I was worried about a potential timeshare with Nene at first, but Faried’s great play has put those worries to rest and Nene played all of six minutes last game. Faried’s rebounding and offensive putbacks alone give him a solid floor and playing in the pick and roll with James Harden is certainly going to get him plenty of good looks, too.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays
For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.
Russell Westbrook (12300)
Westbrook is rounding back into form again, notching 60 and 69 FD points in his last two games while posting monster triple-doubles. I love him here in this game tonight as the Thunder are getting paced up by the Bucks and Westy gets Eric Bledsoe defense. The pace at which this game is going to be played is going to mean a ton of scoring, rebounding and assist opportunities for Westy and Giannis!
Donovan Mitchell (8700)
Mitchell is on fire right now, topping 50+ in three straight games including 51 just two days ago against this T-Wolves team. He feels too cheap here at this price for his recent production and he’s a guy who can stay hot for a while when he’s playing well. Some might sleep on this Utah-Minny game tonight but I definitely have interest in several pieces including…
Rudy Gobert (9500)
Gobert is fresh off a 57 FD point outing against Minnesota on Friday and his price is still under 10k despite his recent strong play. I think Rudy G can have his way with KAT again tonight and have another big performance, especially with his ability to block shots. KAT will be firing away and giving Rudy plenty of rebounding and shot blocking opportunities.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays
For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.
Jerryd Bayless (4200)
Bayless looks good to go again tonight with Teague and Jones already ruled out and Derrick Rose questionable. He’s going to be forced into minutes whether he’s starting or coming off the bench and is an elite value play in cash and GPP tonight.
Dragan Bender (4600)
Bender’s run could be up tonight if Ayton and Holmes return but I’ll believe it when I see it. Both Phoenix big men are still questionable and even if only one of them plays you’d think Bender would stay in the rotation with how well he’s played as a starter.
Derrick Jones Jr. (3800)
DJJ is only a GPP option based on the volatility of the Miami rotation. When he does get 20 minutes though, he usually does plenty while on the floor from a fantasy perspective and I’ll take my chances on him at near minimum price.
Trey Burke (3900)
Burke rejoined the Knicks rotation and had a big night on Friday, scoring 40 FD points in 33 minutes. With Mudiay out again, you’d have to think we see Burke get some solid run again off the bench and his high usage rate with that second unit we are looking for in a punt play.
Ivica Zubac (4800) and JaVale McGee (4400)
The Lakers look to have a timeshare going at center with Zubac and McGee but finally sat down Tyson Chandler. Both Zubac and McGee played about 20 minutes in the Lakers last game and they’re both efficient enough fantasy producers that they can make value in half a game, especially with Rondo setting them up for some easy buckets.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night
Milwaukee (+1) @ Oklahoma City (233 total)
I won’t lie, it’s not going to be easy to stack this game up with the FanDuel salaries of the players that we really want. My first inclination is to pencil in Giannis and Westbrook as a 1-1 stack and leave it at that, but I do think there are a few other intriguing plays in this game.
Eric Bledsoe (7800) is a guy I like here as he should have a lot of opportunities for steals, boards, and baskets with how loose Westbrook is with the ball. Pace up games definitely favor his skill set. Khris Middleton (6400) is as cheap as I can remember in some time and we know that shooting guards have done well against OKC this year (I mean, Andrew Wiggins scored 40 actual points against them!)
On the OKC side, I always have interest in Paul George (10900) and his ownership should be pretty light considering he’s now priced higher than he has been all season. Getting Westy-PG13-Giannis into a lineup will be about impossible, but pairing one of the Thunder buddies with Giannis and either Bledsoe/Middleton is viable. And don’t forget about Terrence Ferguson (4200) as a punt from this game, he’s getting huge minutes and playing well right now.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview
If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction.
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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.
Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. You’ll see my cash core plays in there mixed in with just enough of my value plays to make it work. I am prioritizing Giannis over Harden in cash games today with the anticipation that Chris Paul returns. If CP3 were to get ruled out I would have to rethink my strategy a little, but I still see Giannis as the guy who is the likely raw points leader when it’s all said and done.
Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks.
PG: Rajon Rondo (6700)
PG: Jerryd Bayless (4200)
SG: Donovan Mitchell (8700)
SG: Terrence Ferguson (4200)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (11700)
SF: Derrick Jones Jr. (3800)
PF: Kenneth Faried (6400)
PF: Dragan Bender (4600)
C: Rudy Gobert (9500)
Next. NBA DFS Picks and Pivots - Sunday, January 27. dark
I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter. And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!