NBA DFS Picks and Pivots Sunday, January 27 – CP3 Returns?

Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Saturday’s NBA DFS four game slate was dominated by chalk as we saw guys like Ben Simmons at nearly 80% owned in GPP play but it was the next two most popular plays in Nikola Jokic and CJ McCollum who really were the key plays as they combined for 135 fantasy points at 55% and 67% ownership in tournament play.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Sunday Slate Breakdown:

Sunday’s NBA DFS slate on FantasyDraft kicks off at 7PM EST with 6 total games and it is worth mentioning the start time as it excludes the flashy Thunder-Bucks game at 6PM EST which will likely dominate the headlines across the DFS community today.

The big story on this slate is whether or not Chris Paul ($13.6K) is able to return from his injury for the Houston Rockets. It was well circulated that CP3 would make his return today but as you can see in this clip from Rockets Head Coach, Mike D’Antoni, Paul is questionable and there is a chance he does not suit up as planned.

The injury status of CP3 has a direct correlation to the biggest decision you will have to make on this slate  – are you playing James Harden ($24.8K) at $6K more than any other player on this slate?

Harden and the Rockets played against the Magic just a few games ago, where Harden dropped 75 fantasy points in 43 minutes. This is an interesting spot from a Vegas perspective as this game has the highest total (223) of the games we have lines for but this is also the slowest paced game and the only game on the slate where both teams see a pace decrease.

If CP3 is in, the easy answer is to fade Harden at this price and the fact he has “only” gone for 49 and 55 fantasy points in two of his last three games may lead people to fade Harden regardless. This is where I think the Harden decision becomes a bit sneaky, which feels odd to say for a guy dropping 80-90 fantasy points routinely but if you read the tea leaves a bit, I could absolutely see a path where Harden is less than 50% owned, considering he was “only” 60% owned on Friday.

If CP3 is ultimately ruled in, I think the “Fade Harden” crowds will be out in full force and listen, it makes sense – at nearly $25K, Harden is priced for his 40-45% usage role with CP3 out so it would seem likely he takes a step back here. However, if Harden is going to see a drop in ownership then I think you simply lock him in – there is no other player in my opinion that has anywhere near the ceiling of Harden on this slate and as I have said for weeks now, on FantasyDraft I think the pricing is soft enough where you don’t need to even entertain the fade – you lock him in and you still have $10.7K per player for the rest of your roster – which is more than enough to build a strong NBA DFS lineup.

NBA DFS – Building a Core Lineup:

Five of the six games on this Sunday slate kick-off between 7-730 PM EST with the Suns/Lakers looking like the late night hammer that is simply perfect for stacking. First off, we get a game environment with by far the fastest projected pace on the slate with two teams that are playing at top 5 paces in the entire league over the last week.

We also get a player pool that is ravaged by injuries, opening up value and usage which makes this a great source of point per dollar value that fits quite nicely around a certain bearded Rockets star. The Lakers will be without LeBron James and Lonzo Ball and it looks like Kyle Kuzma could join them as he is officially questionable after being unable to practice on Saturday due to a hip injury.

If we were to take those three off the court, Brandon Ingram ($12.2K) would see the biggest usage boost at over 5% while Rajon Rondo ($12.7K) leads the team with 1.32 FP/M of production. Both players would be easy plug and plays, with clear paths to 30+ minutes but this is really where the “obvious” plays on the Lakers ends as the starting lineup for Luke Walton seems to be a non-stop guessing game.

If Kuzma were to miss, it is possible we see Lance Stephenson ($8.5K) step into a big role and any time Lance is given significant court time in a pace up spot like this, he needs to be on your radar as he has slate breaking ability.

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Speaking of unknowns – the Suns have a few big ones – we already know that Deanthony Melton and TJ Warren are out but once again the big men here are questionable, with DeAndre Ayton and Richaun Holmes carrying that tag once again.

On Friday, with this cast of characters sidelined, the Suns went with a starting five of Elie Okobo, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Josh Jackson and Dragan Bender. Booker is the only member of this lineup and frankly this entire game that is “pricey” as he costs $15.3K but this is one of my favorite plays on the board as his price point scream profit potential in a pace up game where he will soak up all the usage.

Okobo ($7.2K) and Bridges ($7.2K) become nice salary saving plays if they are going to be tasked with 30+ minutes of court time once again. Bender ($9K) has been leaned on heavily the last four games, playing 30+ minutes nearly every night with Holmes and Ayton on the sidelines.

Writing this as a first look makes identifying the specific players in this game nearly impossible – there are so many question marks and with it being the sole late game, it is also very possible we do not have concrete answers before lock.

So let’s step back and think about how we attack this:

• Rondo, Ingram and Booker seem safe regardless of news
• Okobo is an easy value play with Melton already ruled out
• Bender would become an easy plug and play value IF both Ayton/Holmes are out but if either of them are active, especially Ayton at only $12.1K, he would jump into consideration at a far too cheap price tag.
• If Kuzma is out, are we getting a Lance Stephenson starting assignment? Who will start for Center this game for the Lakers? Roll the dice and guess

So back to my core – go ahead and lock in James Harden and the trio from this game in Rondo, Ingram and Booker – and you still have $8.8K per player for the last four spots on your roster.

Depending on how the news breaks, there are tons of plays from this game in the $7-$9K price range that make it easy correlation/stack!

Normally I would give you a sample lineup, but without the news in this game, I would honestly just be guessing so take the core plays and mix and match as we get clarity throughout the day. Enjoy this larger than usual Sunday slate all – see you back here on Monday!

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day!