Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got a small slate for Sunday so let’s take a look at where 2 values can be found.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is significantly worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are the key to my value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games that move at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Some lines will be better than you see on here from the night before, some the same and some worse. Disregard any play that is significantly off the number listed, has an unexpected injury, or any other factor not known before the day of the game that would negatively impact our play. I am playing these games also and will tweet when I can find anything important.
Yesterday, Saturday, we went 10-6 again on our plays and we are 20-12 overall.
Analysis of every game consists of the number I make the game, which I call the raw number, and the associated trends within the game including and especially how the teams are currently playing.
Sometimes you will see a stat saying team X has covered 8/10, then upon examination you see that team lost the last 2 in a row. Stats can be a trap so I filter them out for you.
Having said that, let’s get to our NCAA basketball best bets. I will be going thru these games in time order; if the strength of the play deviates from the standard unit it will be pointed out as the game is discussed. All times Eastern. Here we go:
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Against The Grain
Central Florida + 3 1/2 over Memphis, 4 pm
Most prognosticators are with Memphis today – read this list of stats:
Memphis is 12-5 ATS vs above 500 teams,
Memphis is 6-2 ATS after a loss.
The favorite is 12-3 in the series,
UCF is 2-7 ATS as an underdog,
UCF is 1-5 ATS as a road underdog.
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But stats can be deceiving. Here is what I see:
UCF has won and covered the last 4 games in their series, and UCF has won the last 2/3 ATS as a road team. My raw number is UCF by 6 on a neutral court, so I will try them hoping they will have enough room in that margin to win the game.
Iowa +1 over Minnesota, 5 pm
This is another huge game between 2 very good teams. Iowa was disappointed at home against Michigan State last time out and now has to travel to Minnesota who is 14-5 straight up overall and 10-1 at home. Iowa is only 2-2 on the road.
However Iowa is actually playing much better basketball against the number than Minnesota. They had covered 5 straight ATS before that home loss to powerhouse Michigan State including the last 2 road games winning outright as underdogs.
Conversely Minnesota has failed to cover in 7 of their last 10 including losing 6/7 ATS at home. My number is Iowa by 6, so in a very similar fashion to UCF I am going to hope that margin is enough for Iowa to take down a road win.