FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Monday, 1/28 – Is Jokic Unstoppable?

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Monday, 1/28

Welcome back to the Monday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

Tonight we kick off the week with a 5-game main slate that locks at 7:00 PM.  Five games is enough for me to play cash games so I’ll go back to my standard format and focus on a cash core, GPP plays, and value plays.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

My goal when I revamped the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.  When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

This is where I usually remind you that in order to win in NBA DFS you have to be flexible with your roster construction and sometimes take things down to the wire before lock with late-breaking injury information. At the same time, I always warn against totally scrapping your original first look build, as sometimes the plays that you were on the night before or that morning end up still being the best plays on the slate.

As always, let’s take a quick look at our injury situation and Vegas data to get us started.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

Injury Report

OUT: Cody Zeller, Luke Kornet, Emmanuel Mudiaye, Victor Oladip (season), Kent Bazemore, Garrett Temple, Jamal Murray, Spencer Dinwiddie,

Doubtful: Allen Crabbe,

Questionable: Danilo Gallinari, Kyle Anderson, Joe Harris, Omri Casspi, Treveon Graham, Kemba Walker, Frank Ntilikina

Probable: JaMychal Green

The big question marks are Gallinari and Kemba. It sounds like Gallo is nearing a return but his coach was very vague about when that could happen. Meanwhile, Kemba popped up on the injury report after missing practice yesterday and if we to get ruled out then we would have several really appealing targets on the Hornets.

Vegas Info

The Clippers and Knicks are the only teams that played last night, while the Nets are the only team that plays again tomorrow. I always like to take a look at which teams are on the front or back end of back-to-backs.

The highest total tonight is the Warriors-Pacers at 225.

We have two double-digit spreads with the Hornets being 12 point favorites and the Celtics being 10 point favorites.

The only total/spread we are missing as of right is the Clippers-Hawks game but I can guarantee that total will come in pretty high as both of those teams.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core plays section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Bojan Bogdanovic (5700)

Bojan is my favorite Pacer tonight in their matchup with the Warriors. He’s cheap and he has the highest usage of any Pacers starter when they are out there together (27% usage in a pretty solid 210-minute sample size). His role should continue to grow for the post-Oladipo Pacers and he’s averaging a solid 19.5 actual points per game in the 13 games that Oladipo has missed so far this season.

Darren Collison (6700)

It’s not often that I use two players from the same team in my cash core, but the Pacers are in a nice spot here tonight against the Warriors as they are being paced up and they’re going to have to pick up the slack left behind by the loss of Oladipo. Collison has been as steady as they come lately, topping 30 FD points in 6 of his last 7 games and dishing out over 8 assists per game over his last three.

Nikola Jokic (11400)

With the new look Warriors spreading out the production, I think there’s a really good chance that the Joker leads the slate in raw points tonight.  He’s pretty much matchup-proof at this point and his fantasy point production has been simply amazing. In his last four games, he’s averaging 1.92 FPPM which is approaching “Harden without CP3” territory. With no Jamal Murray in the lineup again tonight he should be playing point-center again and I think he’s likely to put up another effortless triple-double even in what appears to be a tough matchup. He had 53 FD points against Memphis a month ago so he’s done it before, too.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Nicolas Batum (5000)

Don’t stop reading this article, I promise you I didn’t want to include Batum in this section.  Is Batum back or just setting a trap for us? He’s played 36 and 38 minutes in his last two games and scored 18 and 19 actual points. He’s looked a little more like the Batum of old lately. My interest here is really due to Kemba’s questionable tag because if Kemba were to miss we might see Batum take over the point and get more involved in the offense. The Hornets rotation is super annoying, but it’s hard not to like them in a premiere DFS matchup against the woeful Knicks.

Trae Young (7200)

I really have to admit I didn’t think Young would play as well as he has in his rookie season. Sure, he has struggled at times, but overall he’s shown some great shot-making and passing so far this season. From a DFS perspective, his timeshare with Jeremy Lin has held him back a little as he’s usually capped at 28-32 minutes of playing time. But he’s strung together a pretty solid stretch of games and Lin has actually played alongside him at shooting guard sometimes. I love the matchup here against the Clippers and I think Young gets the better of another rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

 D’Angelo Russell (8400)

I hope everyone knows that I am not a Russell fan…at all. And by writing him up here today I am probably jinxing him because I rarely get him right. The easy thing would be to just fade him after he burned me this weekend, but I’m trying my best not to let recency bias cloud my judgment. After all, D-Lo just dropped 51-spot on the Celtics two weeks ago and has topped 50 FD points in three other games since then.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Shabazz Napier (4800)

I love Bazzy coming off the bench for the Nets and taking over the 6th man role from the injured Spencer Dinwiddie.

Pat Beverley (4600)

Pat Bev continues to flash some upside since entering the starting lineup. He’s now got 44 and 53 FD point outings in his last 5 games and it looks like his minutes are stabilizing as the Clippers need his defense.

Avery Bradley (3900)

Bradley has finally shown some consistency with 20+ FD points in five straight outings. I’m targeting a bunch of Clippers tonight as they get paced up by the Hawks in a game that should have some scoring.

Andre Iguodala (4300)

Iggy managed to score 23 FD points on Saturday even while only scoring one actual point in the game. His role as the facilitator on the second unit and lockdown defender has allowed him to lock up 23-25 minutes consistently in the best rotation in the NBA.

Trey Burke (4500)

More point guard value! Burke disappointed last night as a chalky value option, but as long as Mudiaye is out and the Knicks seem content with playing their bench guys a ton of minutes then Burke is still in play.

Damyean Dotson (3800)

Speaking of the Knicks bench, Dotson had himself a solid outing last night scoring 14 actual points on the way to 28 FD points. He’s played 22 or more minutes in the rotation for seven straight games and has some nice rebounding and defensive stats upside for a guard.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (4000)

RHJ finally got some solid run for the Nets this weekend, logging 23 minutes and putting up 25 FD points. The Nets rotation is a hot mess right now and figuring out who besides D-Lo is going to get the run can be maddening, but this is a really cheap price for a player who was 6k+ back when he was playing 25-30 minutes regularly.

Mason Plumlee (4600)

If I do pay down at center from Jokic, it might be for his backup Plumlee. The Plum-dog millionaire has been a steady producer with the second unit and is my favorite punt of the big men tonight.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a GPP lineup. I’m looking to stack the Atlanta-L.A. Clippers game with some cheap pieces from the Clippers and Trae Young and Tobias Harris being the big spends. I hate playing D’Angelo Russell but the spot is really good and I shouldn’t let recency bias get the best of me after he left me down badly this weekend.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks.

PG: Trae Young (7200)
PG: Patrick Beverley (4600)
SG: Avery Bradley (3900)
SG: D’Angelo Russell (8400)
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic (5700)
SF: Tobias Harris (7800)
PF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (4000)
PF: Domantas Sabonis (6800)
C: Nikola Jokic (11400)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!