Welcome into the Monday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have five games in front of us tonight with only a handful of high priced players.
This five game slate is really fascinating with some interesting Fantasy Basketball Top Plays. On DraftKings, there’s only one player in the five digits and FanDuel only boasts two in that price range. The elephant in the room is the Golden State Warriors. I think I might have a very small piece of the entire team tonight and don’t want to just list them as a fade in every position. I do want to point out where the usage and FPPM has been since DeMarcus Cousins has entered the lineup( keeping in mind the small sample size)
Kevin Durant – With Boogie – 28.8 percent and 1.27 FPPM
W/O Boogie – 32.9 percent and 1.40 FPPM – difference of negative 4.1 percent and .13 FPPM
Steph Curry – With Boogie – 28.1 percent and 1.23 FPPM
W/O Boogie – 33.1 percent and 1.42 FPPM – difference of negative 5 percent and .19 FPPM
Klay Thompson – With Boogie – 25.5 percent and 0.98 FPPPM
W/O Boogie – 28.5 percent and 1.01 FPPM – difference of negative 3 percent and .03 FPPM
Draymond Green – With Boogie – 12.3 percent and 1.16 FPPM
W/O Boogie – 13.4 percent and 1.03 FPPM – difference of positive 1.1 percent and .13 FPPM
For me, that will limit my exposure to the Warriors while they hash it out and we see how the teams functions as Boogie gets healthy. Even if they manage all the egos and get along, there is still just one ball on the floor. The fantasy production may be lower than we have been accustomed to this past year and a half with them. Let’s move to the rest of the slate.
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – Kyrie Irving, Celtics
My goodness is Kyrie on some kind of tear right now. He has been shooting extremely well lately, dishing assists like crazy(10, 10, 11 and 18 the past four games) and has been a thief(12 steals in the past four). The Nets are about average as far as DK points to the position, but they give up the sixth most real points at the same time. This is a big game for the Nets so I expect the game to stay close and the spread is 10 points. Brooklyn should be able to keep it close enough for Kyrie to get a full run and on a slate that offers fewer options than normal at the top, Kyrie is likely going to be very popular on this slate.
Honorable Mention – Patrick Beverly, Clippers
Fade – None
I can’t say in truthfulness that there’s a sure-fire fade at point guard tonight. Curry is still in play, Mike Conley is starting to emerge as the better option on the grizzlies most nights over Marc Gasol, Kemba Walker is in a nice spot if he plays and Darren Collison is running the Pacers offense. Even Trae Young is in a good spot and the minutes have stabilized(and the young man is playing better overall). It’s going to come down to roster construction at the point guard spot tonight.
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – Monte Morris, Nuggets
By all respects, Morris should be a fairly popular cheap option. He could be a way to get to three of the more expensive options on the slate if that’s the way you’d choose to play and folks may overlook him since he was underwhelming last game. Jamal Murray is out with an ankle injury for the Nuggets and in the largest sample size on the team, Morris sits at a 20 percent usage and a mark of 0.91 FPPM on the season.
The matchup is the best as the Grizzlies at home are stingy to individual positions. However, they are also in a total free fall and will be shipping out pieces any day now. The Nuggets are sitting neck and neck with Golden State atop the West and this game could get ugly despite the spread. Morris seems like a safe bet for at least 25 minutes with potential for more. He won’t be a focal point of the offense with Nikola Jokic, Will Barton and Gary Harris all active but you don’t need a massive game. You just need respectability and Morris should bring that to the table tonight.
Honorable Mention – Jeremy Lamb, Hornets(especially if Walker is out)
Fade – Allonzo Trier, Knicks
The spot is intriguing because the Knicks will be short a couple of guards heading into this game. Both Emmanuel Mudiay and Frank Ntilikina are both already confirmed out, which would make you think that Trier has safety in his minutes. I’m just not convinced that’s true because David Fizdale might be the worst coach in the NBA for DFS purposes.
Let’s take a look at the past six games for Trier. His minutes have been 11, 23, 29, 32, 23 and 19. When they spiked at the high-end, he had two monster fantasy games and it seemed like the production might justify a more stable role. After pouring in 31 points and snatching 10 rebounds, Trier’s minutes got cut by nearly 33 percent the following game. If you can’t trust a player after a game like that it’s hard to get on board tonight.
Honorable Mention – I can’t say I’m fading Lou Williams of the Clippers fully, but man is that price high
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Taurean Prince, Hawks
Provided Prince plays, he draws a great spot and finally seems back to playing his normal minutes. He was on the floor for 35 minutes this past game and he’s averaged about 27, but that’s been skewed by some injuries. The Blazers have continually been smashed by wings, giving up the sixth most DK points, including sixth most real points and fifth most rebound. The pace should be nice since both teams sit in the top 10 and this is likely going to be the game of the night for DFS purposes. I want a few pieces from this game and Prince isn’t even the only Hawk that we’ll be featuring.
Honorable Mention – Theo Pinson, Nets
Fade – Will Barton, Nuggets
I will reverse course if we get word that Barton will play more minutes tonight, but for now his price has come up too quickly for someone just playing 24-26 minutes since returning from an injury. Don’t get me wrong, it makes perfect sense for Barton to be babied back into minutes. The Nuggets are cruising right now and Barton missed basically half a season, so they don’t need to rush him. He could be a key contributor for a deep playoff run but the bottom line becomes the minutes.
Barton does have a usage rate over 23 percent, which is solid. The FPPM looks pretty strong at 1.08 so far but even if that rate is true, you’re not going to hit value at his tag. Even with Murray off the floor last game, it didn’t really spark the production for Barton. You never want to get too hung up in just one game, but at almost $7,000, you need upside. Barton hasn’t shown that consistently enough for me to be too excited about playing him tonight.
Honorable Mention – Tobias Harris, Clippers(if Danilo Gallinari is back)
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – John Collins, Hawks
I could very well live to regret typing this, because I’m casting my lot with a bad team in Atlanta that is openly trying to trade for the future. However, Collins is definitely a part of that future and he draws a fantastic matchup tonight against a Clipper front court that can’t guard the paint at all and Collins should be able to take advantage. It might not have a direct correlation, but the last time we featured Collins against a weak defending team in the paint, he went for 53 DK points. I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’.
I have a reputation for being a big Montrezl Harrell fan, and I am but that doesn’t mean he can guard the paint. There’s a reason the Clips are in the bottom four in paint rebounds and points in the league at this point of the season. Collins is seventh in the league in paint touches, even with his minutes generally being capped at around 30. I do somewhat wish that Dewayne Dedmon or Alex Len was out when paying this price for Collins, but the spot can’t get any better since the Clippers played yesterday as well.
Honorable Mention – Marcus Morris, Celtics
Fade – Paul Millsap, Nuggets
If someone could look into the magic eight ball and tell me when it’s a Paul Millsap night, I would greatly appreciate it. I can’t figure this guy out for the life of me and I’m not crazy about him yet again because the floor is pretty low and I’m not even exactly sure where the ceiling is at this point.
As it comes down to so often for DFS, it’s all about opportunity and minutes for NBA. Neither one of those things can be relied upon from Millsap, because I have no idea how many minutes the Nuggets will play him on any given night. In 15 games since returning from injury, Millsap has hit the 30 minute mark or more just twice. He has to be insanely efficient to be worth playing if he’s only on the court for 20-24 minutes. Just like Will Barton, it makes perfect sense for the Nuggets but I don’t have to put him in my lineup.
Honorable Mention – Jaren Jackson, Jr., Grizzlies
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Al Horford, Celtics
I think Nikola Jokic is going to be popular because there’s not many top shelf options tonight. Folks might just want to ride with one of the best centers in basketball and I’m a big joker fan so I can’t blame anyone for that. On FD, I can’t say I know for sure right now if I would play Jokic or Horford but I might run a lot of both on DK. Horford’s minutes have finally spiked above 26 minutes as he’s played at least 30 minutes in four of the past six games, with another one at 27. Now he draws the best matchup a center can get and I’m going after it yet again.
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Brooklyn just simply can’t guard big men and even Noah Vonleh got them this past game. Now, it’s fair to mention that Horford disappointed in this very spot the last time he saw the Nets. H only put up 16 DK points but he also only played 20 minutes. Whatever was bother ing him at that stage of the season seems to be past him and he has posted consecutive 44+ point efforts these past two games. I’m jumping on the big man before it’s too late and the price goes up too high.
Honorable Mention – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
Fade – DeMarcus Cousins, Warriors
We talked about Golden State at length, but didn’t really talk about what was going on with Cousins himself tonight. For me, his price has already hit the point that is too high given how he’s played and assuming he doesn’t see more than around 25 minutes again tonight. If the minutes change, I might be a little more interested but there is still a ton of risk involved.
I’m happy to admit I was wrong on Cousins and he’s looked better than I thought he would, which to me is exciting. I like Boogie a good deal and seeing him get back to health is a lot of fun. With getting back in game shape has come a lot of fouls so far. That makes a lot of sense since game speed is different from anything else, but Cousins is expensive if you have to sweat foul trouble with everything else that could go wrong. The Pacers are also 12th against centers this year, although the matchup isn’t going to be a concern in the long-term. He’s already the third most expensive Warrior on DK and tied for third on FD, so there’s enough concerns for me to steer clear tonight.
Honorable Mention – Jarrett Allen, Nets
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