Fantasy Basketball: NBA Draftkings Top Salary Value Plays – 1/28
By Shaun Evans
Welcome back to another fun filled Monday with this NBA Draftkings slate! Hope everyone had a great weekend and now we’re kicking the Superbowl week off. We have a nice 5 game slate tonight, filled with some great plays and depth. Before we kick off our research for the top salary value plays, make sure to check out the Charity Event we are hosting on a new app called DraftMates this Sunday for the Superbowl! All entry fees go to a great cause called “The American Heart Association”. Good luck and cash out tonight!
NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value.
For example, the other night Russell Westbrook was priced at $10,900 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 54.50 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sadly, he did not. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.
Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 5 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Kyrie Irving vs. Brooklyn Nets
Salary: $9,600 – Needs to score 48 fantasy points or more to exceed value (62.4 for 6.5x)
Kyrie Irving is a very bad man and he might make himself a non-fade type player very shortly. Irving has broken the 6.5x value in four of his last five games, scoring 60, 63.75, 67.25, and 63.75! He now gets to face the Brooklyn Nets who are allowing opposing shooting guards to average 22 points, 7 assist and 5 rebounds per game. Irving is averaging 23 points, 7 assist, and 5 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 29%. Kyrie Irving has yet to face the Brooklyn Nets this season but this should be another dominate performance by him.
Irving is averaging 44.8 fantasy points per game and 1.4 fantasy points per minute. He’s showing that he’s going no where but up and he has yet to break the $10,000 mark which makes it hard to fade him tonight. If he does anything like the past few games, Kyrie Irving may have a James Harden type night tonight.
Other Top Tier Option
D’Angelo Russell vs. Boston Celtics
Salary: $8,600 – Needs to score 43 fantasy points or more to exceed value
D’Angelo Russell was on a good run until he ran into the New York Knicks on Friday but luckily that isn’t the case tonight. Russell gets to face the Boston Celtics who are allowing opposing point guards to average 20 points, 7 assist and 5 rebounds per game. Russell, on the season, is averaging 19 points, 6 assist and 4 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 30%. He has been taking over lately and acting like the team leader since the beginning of this season. In his previous five games, Russell has scored 58.5, 55.5, and 54,25 fantasy points, exceeding value in three of them by a good amount. He should easily be able to jump back on track versus the Boston Celtics tonight, especially having a couple of days of rest.
Low Tier Option
Trae Young vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Salary: $6,700 – Needs to score 33.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Trae Young had started the season off on a pretty good foot, making an early case for rookie of the year but he fizzled out for a bit but seems to be back on track. Young has exceeded value in his last game plus one more in the previous five games, scoring 48 fantasy points in both of them. He is averaging 16 points, 7 assist, and 3 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 27%. Being the main focus of this team, he should easily be able to stay consistent. He does get to face the Los Angeles Clippers who are allowing opposing shooting guards to average 23 points, 8 assist and 6 rebounds. If you decide to not play Kyrie Irving and want to save on salary at the point guard position, Trae Young may be the option to go with.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Lou Williams vs. Atlanta Hawks
Salary: $7,400 – Needs to score 37 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Every since returning from a small injury, Lou Williams has been on the dominance spree. Williams has scored 66.5 and 38 fantasy points in his past two match-ups, doing so in 32 minutes and 27 minutes. Now he gets one more chance to continue the spree versus the Atlanta Hawks who are allowing opposing shooting guards to average 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assist per game. On the season, Lou Williams is averaging 18 points, 5 assist and 3 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 32%.
Lou Williams has been in a great spot this season and should continue to be in one. He’s averaging 31.4 fantasy points per game and 1.25 fantasy points per minute. He’s also doing all of this off of the bench but it makes it especially hard to fade him due to his last two games. Coming off of a triple double and a double double, we should see another top performance tonight from Lou Williams.
Other Top Tier Option
Tim Hardaway Jr. vs. Charlotte Hornets
Salary: $5,800 – Needs to score 29 fantasy points or more to exceed value
The boss will be happy once again as Tim Hardaway Jr. has a good match-up versus the Charlotte Hornets. Hardaway Jr. is on the block so be careful as him and that contract can be shipped out of New York at any moment. He is averaging 19 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assist with a usage rate of 25%. He’s averaging .93 fantasy points per minute and 30 fantasy points per game. Hardaway Jr. has returned value in three of his previous five games also, scoring 40, 29.5, and 33.5 fantasy points. He also gets to face a Charlotte Hornets team that allows opposing shooting guards to average 23 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assist per game.
Low Tier Options
Bojan Bogdanovic vs. Golden State Warriors
Salary: $5,600 – Needs to score 28 fantasy points or more to exceed value
It’s hard to keep up with the Bogdanovic’s but tonight we get Bojan from the Indiana Pacers and he gets to face the Golden State Warriors. Bogdanovic has been on the upward of exceeding his value where he has done so in three of his five previous games, scoring 28.25, 27, and 29.75 fantasy points.He has a usage rate of 20% this season while averaging 16 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assist per game. Bogdanovic is also averaging 25.7 fantasy points per game and .82 fantasy points per minute. Bojan Bogdanovic does have a tough task tonight facing the Golden State Warriors but with a low ceiling of 28 fantasy points, he should be able to provide that plus some salary relief.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Kevin Durant vs. Indiana Pacers
Salary: $9,400 – Needs to score 47 fantasy points or more to exceed value (61.1 for 6.5x)
It’s hard to gauge any Golden State Warriors player right now with the addition of Boogie being on the court. We’ve seen Curry go off, Klay go off, but Durant has been mediocre to his standards. Is it a bad thing? No, but it does make Durant cheap but also a very cautious play. Durant has only returned value twice in his past two games, scoring 51.25 and 63.25 fantasy points. On the season, he is averaging 28 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assist with a usage rate of 30%. He’s averaging 49.8 fantasy points per game and 1.42 fantasy points per minute.
Durant gets to face the Indiana Pacers tonight who are allowing opposing small forwards to average 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. The two teams have yet to face off this season so tonight we’ll see if the Pacers can keep up with this new formed super team. Durant also has yet to see a major change in his role with DeMarcus Cousins on the court as he is averaging 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist.
Other Top Tier Option
Tobias Harris vs. Atlanta Hawks
Salary: $8,000 – Needs to score 40 fantasy points or more to exceed value
My favorite DFS guy is on this 5 game NBA Draftkings slate and has a great match-up! Tobias Harris gets to face the fast paced Atlanta Hawks which will give him more opportunities plus allow opposing small forwards to average 23 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assist per game. Harris, on the season, is averaging 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assist with a usage rate of 23%. He’s averaging 37.6 fantasy points per game and 1.1 fantasy point per minute. He has also returned value in three of his past five games, scoring 60.75, 50.25, and 42.5 fantasy points. Tobias Harris makes for a great play tonight and I may even consider him over Kevin Durant as the top value play.
Low Tier Option
Taurean Prince vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Salary: $5,400 – Needs to score 27 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Taurean Prince is in a great spot also to get back on track facing the Los Angeles Clippers. Prince has been very hit and miss so it is a caution play also. He’s averaging 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist per game with a usage rate of 22%. He’s averaging 25 fantasy points per game and 0.92 fantasy points per minute. He also gets to face a Clippers team that is allowing opposing small forwards to average 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. If you want to go cheap at the small forward position to pay up elsewhere, Prince is in a great spot.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
John Collins vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Salary: $8,200 – Needs to score 41 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Once again we have a slate where the power forwards and small forwards are interchangeable between both positions. But once again, John Collins gets a pretty good match-up versus the Los Angeles Clippers. He faces a team that allows opposing power forwards to average 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. On the season, Collins is averaging 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 assist while averaging 30 minutes per game and with a usage rate of 23%. The Hawks do play at a high pace also so when the wheels are clicking just right, it increases all of the Hawks players chances of exceeding value.
Collins is averaging 37 fantasy points a game and 1.23 fantasy points per minute. Tonight he does have to reach in to his bag to reach the value of 41 fantasy points but it shouldn’t be tough with how the Clippers give up opportunities inside.
Other Top Tier Option
Montrezl Harrell vs. Atlanta Hawks
Salary: $7,100 – Needs to score 35.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Sticking in the same game but on the opposite side, Montrezl Harrell is another good value play. With a usage rate of 22%, Harrell is averaging 15 points, 7 rebounds, and almost 2 assist per game. But he has had a tough few games recently where yesterday was the first time he broke 30+ fantasy points since January 14th. He should be able to put up a similar performance tonight against the Hawks who are allowing opposing power forwards to average 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Harrell is averaging 30.8 fantasy points per game and 1.23 fantasy points per minute.
Low Tier Option
Marvin Williams vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $5,300 – Needs to score 26.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
It’s not too often I write up a Charlotte Hornets player that isn’t named Kemba Walker but Marvin Williams has a nice opportunity tonight versus the New York Knicks. Williams does see an increase in price tonight by $700 due to the match-up. The Knicks do allow opposing power forwards to average 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Marvin Williams is averaging 10 points, 5 rebounds and 1 assist per game with a usage rate of just 15%. He’s averaging 23 fantasy points per game and .85 fantasy points per game. Williams could make a great value and salary relief play tonight.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Nikola Jokic vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Salary: $10,800 – Needs to score 54 fantasy points or more to exceed value (70.2 for 6.5x)
It’s hard to avoid playing someone who just absolutely crushed the Philadelphia 76ers with a stat-line of 32 points, 18 rebounds, and 10 assist. Nikola Jokic has been on an upward trend the last four games scoring 49, 58.3, 69.8, and 76.5 fantasy points. When you have a slate that doesn’t have the likes of James Harden, Russell Westbrook or Joel Embiid then you should probably lock in Jokic. He has a usage rate of 27% while averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assist, all in about 31 minutes per game. He faces a Memphis Grizzlies team that is allowing centers to average 20 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assist per game.
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Nikola Jokic is making a run as the most dominant and non-fade worthy center this season. He’s averaging 49.3 fantasy points a game and 1.6 fantasy points per minute. When the two teams faced off on December 10th, Jokic recorded 27 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assist. When we have a slate like this without a high-priced guard, Jokic is the guy to build around.
Other Top Tier Option
Al Horford vs. Brooklyn Nets
Salary: $6,400 – Needs to score 32 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Al Horford has hurt us a few times this season already but tonight he gets to face the Brooklyn Nets, who we always target when playing a big man. Horford is coming off of two strong performances, scoring 44.5 and 48.8 fantasy points. On the season, he’s averaging 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assist per game with a usage rate of 18%. But the plus side to his performances right now, Kyrie Irving is also having a hot hand which benefits Horford. Horford gets to face the Nets who are allowing opposing centers to average 25 points, 18 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. This makes Horford a great center to target tonight if you choose to fade Jokic.
Low Tier Option
DeMarcus Cousins vs. Indiana Pacers
Salary: $6,500 – Needs to score 32.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Boogie is still so cheap and playing roughly 25 minutes per game which makes every single match-up a great match-up for him. DeMarcus Cousins has exceeded value in every game except one since returning from his injury. He does move up by $300 but still, the ceiling to reach is still very low to achieve. He is averaging 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist with a usage rate of 27%. He’s averaging 31 fantasy points per game and averaging 1.47 fantasy points per minute. Now he gets to face Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers who are allowing centers to average 22 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Once again this makes DeMarcus Cousins another good play, especially if fading Jokic.
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