FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Tuesday, 1/29 – The Process Goes to Hollywood

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Tuesday, 1/29

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

Tonight we have a 7-game main slate that locks at 7:00 PM.  I love when we get 7-8 slates because I feel like they are often the perfect sized slates for NBA DFS. Just enough options without there being too many to choose from.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

My goal when I revamped the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.  When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

This is where I usually remind you that in order to win in NBA DFS you have to be flexible with your roster construction and sometimes take things down to the wire before lock with late-breaking injury information. At the same time, I always warn against totally scrapping your original first look build, as sometimes the plays that you were on the night before or that morning end up still being the best plays on the slate.

As always, let’s take a quick look at our injury situation and Vegas data to get us started.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

INJURY REPORT

OUT: DeMar DeRozan, Anthony Davis, Lonzo Ball, Spencer Dinwiddie, De’Anthony Melton, Alex Abrines, Chandler Hutchinson, Etwaun Moore, Nikola Mirotic, T.J. Warren, LeBron James, Wendell Carter Jr., Markieff Morris, Clint Capela, Tristan Thompson

DOUBTFUL: Reggie Bullock, Allen Crabbe, DeAndre Ayton

QUESTIONABLE: Treveon Graham, Julius Randle, Kyle Kuzma, Jonah Bolden, Ian Mahinmi, Josh Hart

PROBABLE: Malcolm Brogdon

The good news is that we have most of the info we need here and we have quite the list of guys there already ruled out. The big news I’ll be watching is for the status of Julius Randle, DeAndre Ayton, and Kyle Kuzma.

VEGAS INFO

The Nets are playing the second half of a back to back…and running a deep rotation. Just saying…

The highest total as of now comes from the Houston-New Orleans game at 234.5. That game happens to be the first national TV game on TNT, too.

We’re missing lines from the late games (Suns-Spurs & Lakers-Sixers) and I expect the Lakers game to carry a high total when it finally gets set by Vegas.

The tighest spread we have right now is in the Orlando-Oklahoma City with the Thunder being 5 point road favorites.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core plays section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Richaun Holmes (5000)

With DeAndre Ayton doubtful it appears that Holmes will likely start at center for the Suns. And even if he doesn’t start, he’s still likely to play more minutes than Dragan Bender who started Sunday’s game and was replaced by Holmes at halftime. Holmes is an excellent FPPM contributor and dropped 40 on the Lakers in only 26 minutes. He’s the first player I am clicking into lineups tomorrow as long as we get news that Ayton is indeed out for sure.

Joel Embiid (11600)

TRUST THE PROCESS!  I’m well aware the Sixers will likely be heavy favorites on the road against a banged-up Lakers team and will be getting Jimmy Butler back in the lineup, too. But I really don’t care. All I know is that this is a massive spot for Embiid as centers continue to just pound the Lakers inside. There’s some history here, too, as Embiid averaged 39-11-6 in two games against L.A. last season. Toss in the fact that the game is on national TV and I think we see Embiid go all out to put up another big number on the Lakers.

LaMarcus Aldridge (8800)

Want to know LMA’s usage with DeRozan off the floor this season? It’s 36% and his FPPM jump up to 1.52, meaning he’s an elite play in all formats in this matchup against Phoenix. Aldridge is playing well and has put the Spurs offense on his back in the last week with DeRozan missing time, averaging 25-10-4 over his last 5 games. Blake Griffin will likely be a popular play, but I’d rather save 1200 and roster LMA instead for a solid chance at a similar output.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Tomas Satoransky (6700)

Yes, I might be sleep-deprived after having a week-old newborn in the house, but I promise you I am making this pick while of sound mind.  T-Sat probably feels more like a cash play, but I really like his upside for GPPs as a mid-tier option at point guard. The matchup is sweet as point guards have roasted the Cavs this season and Sato (gotta use all the nicknames) has flashed a pretty nice ceiling lately, topping 45 FD points in three of his last seven games.

Jrue Holiday (9500)

I absolutely love Holiday tonight in what should be a high-scoring affair against the Rockets. Holiday is producing at a very high level (25-7-8 over his last four games) since Anthony Davis went down. With Mirotic, Moore, and Davis off the court, Jrue sports a 30% usage rate and an elite 1.5 FPPM rate. If Randle ends up missing tomorrow’s game, then Jrue’s usage stays about the same but his output goes up to a ridiculous 1.8 FPPM, albeit in a fairly small sample size this season. He’s going to be asked to carry this team tomorrow and this season he’s been up to challenge when the Pelicans have found themselves short-handed.

Lauri Markannen (7200)

It’s been a while since I have recommended Markannen but tonight feels like a great spot him to have another big game. The injury to Wendell Carter Jr. has finally forced the Bulls to cut Lauri loose and he’s now played 31-38 minutes in five straight games. The matchup is ideal here against a Brooklyn team that allows a ton of points, boards, and blocks to opposing big men and Markannen happens to be coming off a solid 21-15 game against the Cavs this weekend.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown:  Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

So…Many…Lakers!

With Josh Hart and Kyle Kuzma possibly missing tonight and the Lakers already missing Bron and Lonzo we could see the Lakers role players become major sources of value tonight.

Kenneth Caldwell Pope (4500)

KCP played a whopping 36 minutes in Sunday’s game against Phoenix and produced with 34 FD points. He’s still way too cheap for the number of minutes he’s likely to play and the volume of shots that he’s going to put up.

Michael Beasley (4200)

Beasley played 26 minutes the other night and drew the start for the injured Kuzma. He did a little of everything and ended up with 30 FD points.

Lance Stephenson (4300)

Lance came off the bench in the Lakers’ last game but was really efficient with the second unit, scoring 29 FD points in only 21 minutes. He’s a great play here again tonight in a pace-up spot vs. Philly.

Bryn Forbes (4400)

I like these Spurs value guards tonight to help pick up some of the scoring with DeRozan out. Forbes isn’t a dynamic fantasy player but plays enough minutes to hit 25 FD points consistently.

Patty Mills (4200)

Patty is more of GPP play as he tends to run hot or cold depending on if his shot is falling. He’s been alternating good and “meh” games every other night but is always a threat to go 6-7x when he heats up from downtown.

Marco Belinelli (4300)

If I had 3 Lakers, then I feel like I need 3 Spurs, too. Bello is about as steady as they come, scoring 20+ FD points in 7 of his last 8. His productive does tick up a bit with DDR out of the lineup as well.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

New Orleans (+10) @ Houston (234.5 total)

This game has the potential to be fantasy gold if the Pelicans can stay close throughout. The Rockets haven’t blown people out all that often this season and even in a blowout let’s not count out James Harden‘s ability to go nuts (do we remember the 90 point game in 3 quarters against Cleveland?)

I have a very specific way I want to build this game stack using two players from both teams. For Houston, I’m stacking James Harden (13900) and his new pick and roll partner Kenneth Faried (7400). Remember, Chris Paul is likely still going to be held to 25 minutes tonight so the Harden-Faried combo could potentially be the easiest way to lock in the two highest scorers from Houston in this game. I suspect we can both of them relatively low owned since their prices are pretty high and some people will be off this game due to Paul’s return and the big spread.

For New Orleans it’s all about Jrue Holiday and either Jahlil Okafor (7200) or Julius Randle (8600), depending on if Randle plays. Randle, like Holiday, has a 30% usage rate with Davis and Mirotic off the floor and would be the ideal option to pair with Holiday to lock in a huge chunk of the Pelicans’ fantasy output. Okafor has seen his price come way up, but has been incredibly productive in his four starts, averaging over 40 FD points.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. I have my cash core locked in and I’m using the Lakers value to squeeze in Sato and Jrue as well as Shabazz Napier (my new Nets man-crush, taking the spot of Spencer Dinwiddie). The drop score rule comes into play with my strategy in doubling up on Beasley and Lance at SF in that one of them should have a good game and hopefully, both of them make value if Kuzma ends up missing.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks.

PG: Tomas Satoranksy (6700)
PG: Shabazz Napier (5100)
SG: Jrue Holiday (9500)
SG: Kenneth Caldwell-Pope (4500)
SF: Michael Beasley (4200)
SF: Lance Stephenson (4300)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (8800)
PF: Richaun Holmes (5000)
C: Joel Embiid (11600)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!