Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Tuesday January 29

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have a nice looking seven game slate on hand for tonight with James Harden looming as a decision.

It might be a James Harden slate but I don’t believe I’m going to play him all that much tonight. Chris Paul is due back to play about 30 minutes and that should limit the ceiling for Harden. Realistically, you need something close to a ceiling game in GPP. You can argue he’s still a safe play in cash but there is a very large chance hitting 6x doesn’t happen. Let’s see who else looks like Fantasy Basketball Top Plays we need to be chasing tonight.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Chris Paul, Rockets 

I might be set on not playing too much James Harden tonight because of the reasons listed above, but I do want part of the Rockets team tonight and I think Paul might be one of the better ways to get Houston exposure. His minutes could be a bit of a worry here as they are being talked about being capped at 25. Despite coming off the injury, the matchup on the other side couldn’t be much better and I think we can still use him at this minutes threshold.

It’s been a bit of a quiet year for Paul, even when he’s been healthy. The usage isn’t all that great at 24.1 percent but that is tough to complain about when you’re the sidekick for Harden. The FPPM is solid at 1.13, which would put Paul on track for about 30-35 DK points. Once you add in the glorious matchup and the sub-$7,000 price tag on DK, Paul should be able to have a great game on limited availability.

Honorable Mention – Tomas Satoransky, Wizards

Fade – Rajon Rondo, Lakers 

I’ve played Rondo in both games since he’s returned from his injury with mixed results. One game was massive and one was just alright but this is where I draw the line on Rondo. The lakers are fighting a ton of injuries right now and Rondo is safe for minutes and even should be fine for usage, but the price came up in a hurry. On DK, the price has shot up $1,500 and the matchup is far worse for Rondo than it is for Paul.

Philly comes into the game fully healthy as Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid are expected to play. That has to raise the level of blowout concern in this game on top of the bad matchup, since Philly is 11th best against the position. While Rondo has a massive assist rate with LeBron James off the floor, I’m really not willing to play him while Paul is just a couple hundred more on DK and $600 more on FD.

Honorable Mention – Elf Payton, Pelicans

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Jrue Holiday, Pelicans 

This play does have some small risk but it’s not from any measurable statistic. Anthony Davis has told the Pelicans that he wants traded from the team and will not be signing an extension, which leaves the rest of the players in a bit of an awkward situation. We know Davis won’t be in action tonight because he’s injured but with him off the floor, Holiday is at a 28.1 percent usage and 1.25 FPPM mark. He’s going to be on James Harden through almost the entirety of the game and this is a very interesting note from Michael Gallagher of Yahoo sports.

Holiday has actually played Harden well in the recent sample size and will be relied upon again. Hopefully, the locker room won’t be in turmoil over the trade rumors. The Rockets are about mid-pack as far as the matchup goes but Holiday is among the league leaders in minutes on the floor and possibly wants to show out against an MVP candidate. Sign me up at his price tag tonight.

Honorable Mention – Jordan Clarkson, Cavs

Fade – Jimmy Butler, Sixers 

Butler is pretty tough to gauge tonight for a few different reasons. The first and most important reason is Butler is fresh off a wrist injury. He’s missed the last three games and even saw a wrist specialist in Los Angeles. That’s really not something I want a large piece of because we really have no idea how the injury could bother him tonight. The second is it can be difficult to peg when Butler, Simmons or Embiid will have a big game when they’re all in the lineup.

Butler is easily behind Simmons and Embiid in FPPM and you would think that the Sixers are going to be cautious with Butler since their goals are much bigger than a random regular season game. On DK, Butler is still mildly appealing simply because of the price. The FD price is a little too high and even on DK, he still needs about 42 points for 6x return. I just don’t feel that confident in that outcome to play Butler very much tonight.

Honorable Mention – Devin Booker, Suns

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Trevor Ariza, Wizards 

Sometimes, safety isn’t a bad thing at all when we’re talking about DFS basketball. Ariza is seventh in the NBA in minutes per game and he just falls into production when he’s on the floor. When you play that much, you almost have to and the Wizards are facing Cleveland tonight. The Cavs are a terrible team and they are very poor against the small forward position, giving up the seventh most DK points and the second most real life points.

If you’re on FD, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the small forward spot is kind of a train wreck. That is basically every single night anymore and even the high end options really aren’t great(more on that in a minute). It really seems like the best plan is to live in the mid-range and find a nice punt to could qualify as the drop. On DK, the positional flexibility is going to come in handy but Ariza is still an excellent play in a great matchup with locked in minutes.

Honorable Mention – Rudy Gay, Spurs

Fade – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks 

You’re not going to find Antetokounmpo in this section of my article all that often. He’s an MVP candidate in his own right and he’s having a massive year for one of the best teams on the Eastern Conference. I can’t fully explain it, but the Greek Freak just doesn’t usually have the mojo working when he comes up against the Pistons.

This will be the fourth game against Detroit and in the first three, Antetokounmpo has averaged six fewer real points and 3.5 fewer rebounds than his seasonal averages. Perhaps it’s the combo of Blake Griffin being athletic enough to at least give him problems and Andre Drummond waiting in the paint to defend him. Whatever the reason is, he always seems to underwhelm in this spot and I won’t fall for that trap tonight.

Honorable Mention – Kelly Oubre, Suns

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs 

The Spurs and I haven’t gotten along very well this season. When I write one of them up, it almost always seems like the other player goes off. Just this past game, I played a lot of Rudy Gay to see him not do much with Aldridge went bananas, despite being on a back to back. Tonight, Aldridge gets to face a Suns team which is a great matchup and DeMar DeRozan is already ruled out. If there was ever a time to feel good about using Aldridge, it has to be tonight.

Phoenix has no post presence and will almost assuredly be without Deandre Ayton and will be relying on Richaun Holmes and Dragan Bender to slow down Aldridge down low. When I first looked at the slate, I got a little concerned about the price tag for Aldridge but once I dug in, I actually don’t think he’s expensive enough. Without DeRozan on the floor this season, Aldridge has a 36.4 percent usage and 1.54 FPPM. If those numbers held up, Aldridge would be well into the five digits on a nightly basis. The combo is too good to pass on for this slate.

Honorable Mention – Larry Nance, Cavs(If playing about 25 minutes)

Fade – Bobby Portis, Bulls

This hurts because I want to use Portis tonight. The price is very fair, the Nets are on a back to back and Portis should be able to take advantage of the lack of interior the Nets posses. I do think that if Portis would start, he would turn into one of the chalkier players on the slate and deservedly so because he plays some of the five and the Nets get mashed by centers basically every single night. If he doesn’t start, there is really no guarantee Portis will see more than 20 minutes.

We would have thought Portis would have a nice game against the Cavs this past game without Tristan Thompson but that didn’t happen, in large part because he only played 19 minutes. Portis does average 1.08 FPPM so he’s not so crazy efficient that you can get by with under 25 minutes. Seeing how the Bulls are in the tank and the rotations are totally unpredictable, I doubt I’ll have Portis despite the great spot.

Honorable Mention – Kyle Kuzma, Lakers even if he plays

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Joel Embiid, Sixers 

Really, who else could the top play be at this position tonight? Embiid should be safe to count on since he missed the past game with a nagging injury/to rest up. Since he should be in the lineup, he should absolutely destroy the matchup against the Lakers. The trio of Ivica Zubac, Tyson Chandler and JaVale McGee have not proven to be anything to be feared defensively, and Embiid is going to be able to do anything he wants.

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Los Angeles have given up the ninth most real points, the second most rebounds and the fifth most DK points. Embiid has had some floor games when the Sixers have been healthy but it’s just too good of a matchup for him to not deliver in tonight. He’s still far and away the leader in Philly as far as usage and FPPM goes, he seems to love facing some of the glamour teams(despite the Lakers being banged up right now) and my only fear is Philly just blows them out of the water. In any other scenario, it’s tough to see Embiid not paying off tonight.

Honorable Mention – Jahlil Okafor, Pelicans

Fade – Andre Drummond, Pistons

The big man for Detroit is at a very nice price point tonight but I’m going to have to resist the temptation and skip out on playing him. The Bucks have been very tough against centers all season long and it seems to shape up as an especially bad matchup for the style Drummond plays. I have a tough time seeing the path to success tonight since Milwaukee is inside the top 10 against the position.

Since Brook Lopez likes to be a three point shooter so often, I think Drummond is going to have a difficult time chasing him around most of the night. While Milwaukee does give up a lot of paint points, they give up the fewest rebounds of any team in the league to centers. That severely limits the ceiling for Drummond and I don’t want to play him if I think he can’t have some type of ceiling here. It doesn’t seem like this is the game to chase Drummond if he might not hit double digits in rebounds.

Honorable Mention – Nikola Vucevic, Magic

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