NBA DFS Picks and Pivots Tuesday, January 29 – So Many Stars!

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Monday’s NBA DFS slate was an ugly one from the start and it go much uglier when one of the few stars on the slate, Kyrie Irving, was ruled out. It was an odd slate in the sense we had so much value and really nowhere to spend it on which played itself out as the Warriors stars were way higher owned 25-35% in GPP’s even with the massive blowout risk as people simply needed to spend the salary.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Slate Breakdown and a Free Roll:

Before we jump into today’s NBA DFS slate, we got a little treat for you as our friends at FantasyDraft are hooking you up with a $50 Free Roll with 250 spots open – get in now before it fills!

When you open up this slate, what is going to jump out to you at first glance is the sheer volume of injuries we have to high-end stars which is likely going to dominate the headlines and push many to the same player pool.

First off, the Pelicans have already ruled out Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic and E’Twaun Moore, while Julius Randle is questionable to play against the Rockets. Meanwhile the Rockets will slowly bring back Chris Paul as he is expected to have his minutes capped in the mid-20’s again this evening.

The Lakers will remain without LeBron James and Lonzo Ball while Kyle Kuzma is questionable and the Spurs have already ruled out DeMar Derozan who will take on a Suns team that is likely to be without DeAndre Ayton once again.

On a slate that is shaping up to have a considerable amount of value, the path is once again clear on FantasyDraft to simply invest in James Harden ($23.9K) who has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. The return of CP3, even with a mid 20’s minutes cap, clearly scared folks off as he was owned at just barely over 20% in GPP play which is a considerable drop over what he had been in recent week.

All Harden did in that game with CP3 back, was drop 71 fantasy points and tonight with the Pelicans banged on the inside, there is a clear path to another monster game. This Rockets/Pelicans game has by far the highest total so far at 234 with the Rockets seeing one of the biggest pace boosts on the slate but this needs to be balanced by the 10 point Vegas spread as a result of the Pelicans being so short-handed.

One interesting nugget that I saw from Mike Gallagher is how Jrue Holiday has limited Harden from getting to the line, which we know is a critical part of his game. In his last six games against the Pelicans, Harden has been held under 55 fantasy points three times so there is a bit of history that his ceiling game could be harder to come by.

The Rockets/Pelicans game becomes an easy one to game stack with all the obvious value as you can run Harden with someone like Kenneth Faried ($12.4K) and send it back with the trio of Jrue Holiday ($15.8K), Elfrid Payton ($10.6K) and Jahlil Okafor ($11.7K) in the hope that New Orleans can keep this game close. The usage is going to be so concentrated in this game that you can argue this 4-5 man game stack could end up as a core part of your build tonight.

NBA DFS – Pivot Plays and Game Stacks:

On a slate with so many superstars and some early value, my guess is that going Stars and Scrubs will be the “clear path” that most opt to take and I certainly think that is viable – you have multiple stars in elite game environments so I do think that getting at least one star with 60-70 point upside is a must on this slate but I also think that instead of going Stars/Scrubs, you can opt to go a bit more balanced with your build in what may end up being a key differentiation in your roster strategy.

The Nets/Bulls is a game with a mid-range salary player pool that is jumping off the page to me as a potential game stacking spot tonight. The Nets are playing at one of the fastest paces in the entire NBA in recent weeks and they get an incredible match-up against a Bulls team ranked second to last in Def-Rtg over the last 10 games.

Let’s start on the Bulls side – where we get a condensed starting rotation including Kris Dunn ($13K), Zach LaVine ($13.8K) and Lauri Markannen ($12.1K) which gives you a trio that is all playing 34-36 minutes a night and averaging over a FP/M of production in the last week.

The one thing to watch here is how the Bulls attack the Nets interior, as if Bobby Portis ($12.6K) draws the start over Robin Lopez, he could end up as one of the highest ceiling plays on the board. Portis started against the Clippers and did what he seemingly does every time he draws a start – racking up fantasy points with 18 points and 14 boards before the Bulls opted to bench him against the Cavs and start Robin Lopez.

Portis has made six starts this season for the Bulls, going for 32+ fantasy points in four of those six starts and racking up double-doubles in three of those games – if he draws the start tonight, I would load up on him in this match-up against Brooklyn.

On the Nets side, D’Angelo Russell ($15.4K) sees his price come down $700 from yesterday against the Celtics – if I was willing to play him at a more expensive price against the Celtics, how can I not make the same case to play him at a cheaper prices against a far worse defense?

Russell continues to be a usage monster with the Nets playing short-handed, sporting a 32% usage rate and 1.4 FP/M over the last week and has now put up 20 or more FGA in four of his last five games.

Over the last five games, Russell is top 10 in FGA per game while also ranking top 10 in usage – surrounded by players like Harden, Blake Griffin, Donovan Mitchell, Joel Embiid and Giannis – with the key difference being you can roster Russell for a substantial discount over these stars. I say this all the time, Russell is one of the highest ceiling plays in the mid-range every night and I have no issue price enforcing this spot against a terrible defense.

With Treveon Graham out last night against Boston, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($7.3K) drew the start, playing 27 minutes and racking up 33 fantasy points. Speaking of price enforcing, how can you not lock in a player with RHJ’s ceiling when his price didn’t move after last night’s game.

NBA DFS – Prioritizing The Stars:

I mentioned earlier, this slate I believe requires that you have at least one star in your builds as between James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Russell Westbrook and Joel Embiid, you have multiple stars with paths to 60+ fantasy points and I think the salary is soft enough on this slate that you simply have to find a way to get one of them in to your builds.

Of all the stars on this slate, it is tough to overlook the match-up that Joel Embiid ($18.5K) has against the Lakers who rank 25th this season in Def-Eff against opposing Centers. Embiid is coming off two straight games of 60+ fantasy points and has gone for 55+ in four of his last five games, which is exactly what he would need to pay off this price tag on FantasyDraft tonight.

As much as I love the idea of a low(er) owned Harden, it is hard to argue the profit potential is much higher with The Process tonight as even a “floor” game would likely hit value with a ceiling for so much more.

Only two starting centers have played 30+ minutes against the Lakers over the last two weeks, with those being Karl Anthony Towns and Steven Adams who put up 58 and 46 fantasy points against the Lakers interior. I think Embiid is the best point per dollar stud on this slate and will likely be the star I prioritize the most.

Staying in this game, we will likely have some easy value to correlate with Embiid, specifically on the Lakers side as they could be without both Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart, who missed practice on Monday.

If both of those guys are out again, we could see another start for Michael Beasley ($7.1K) who put up 1.2 FP/M with a 22.4% usage rate and 12 FGA which was third most on the team. After a huge game last time out as the starter, Ivica Zubac ($11.3K) is another player with significant profit potential as he just dropped 50+ fantasy points in 36 minutes of court time. Counting on the Lakers right now is a risky proposition, but the Lakers in general represent some great value in by far the fastest pace game environment of the night.

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this is a sample lineup only, meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a plug and play lineup. 

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G: D’Angelo Russell

G: Zach LaVine

G: Kris Dunn

F/C: Joel Embiid

F/C: Lauri Markannen

F/C: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

UTIL: Bobby Portis

UTIL: Michael Beasley

Slate Overview: Stepping back and looking at this slate, I think it is going to be critical to get 1 if not 2 stars into your builds tonight and with so much value already, and likely more to come, it feels foolish to not take advantage. I do think that going high/low with one stud and one value is an interesting strategy as it allows you to go more balanced with the rest of your build as I showed here. I think that the balanced build concept could get a bit over-looked with so many stars being out and all sorts of value opening up.

Enjoy the slate – get in that free roll – and let’s have a great Tuesday!

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day!