NBA Draftkings Top Salary Value Plays January 29
By Shaun Evans
Welcome back everyone! Hope you had a great Monday Night on NBA Draftkings! We saw Andre Iguodala stay true to the Birthday Narrative and shine in the Warriors 10th straight win. Now tonight we have a 7 game slate with both, James Harden and Russell Westbrook, on the slate. Do we finally start to fade Harden as Chris Paul is slowly coming back to his role? Lets get ready to dive into the research. Also don’t forget to join our FantasyCPR Charity Event for Superbowl Sunday over at DraftMates, right here! Good luck and cash out!
NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value.
For example, the other night Russell Westbrook was priced at $10,900 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 54.50 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sadly, he did not. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.
Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
As a special thank you to our Fantasy CPR readers, we have a $50 Free Roll tonight on FantasyDraft. You can access the free roll link here!
Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 7 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Russell Westbrook vs. Orlando Magic
Salary: $10,600 – Needs to score 53 fantasy points or more to exceed value (68.9 for 6.5x)
Tonight we get the excitement of deciding between Russell Westbrook and James Harden which is really no easy decision. With Westbrook, we’re getting a point guard who is averaging 57 fantasy points per game and 1.62 fantasy points per minute. He has also only returned value twice in the past five games with 75.3 and 67 fantasy points. Now he gets to face a Orlando defense that is allowing point guards 22 points, 6 assist and 6 rebounds per game.
On the season, Westbrook is averaging 21 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assist per game with a usage rate of 31% while averaging 35 minutes per game. Westbrook is at a price that could be deemed a fade spot, especially with the way that Paul George has been playing.
Other Top Tier Option
Ben Simmons vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $9,000 – Needs to score 45 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Ben Simmons is another play that could have been deemed as a fade spot but he does get to face a Los Angeles Lakers team that is still without Lebron James, Lonzo Ball, and possibly Kyle Kuzma. Simmons is averaging 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assist per game with a usage rate of 22%. He’s averaging 44.6 fantasy points per game and 1.35 fantasy points per minute. The Lakers are currently allowing opposing point guards to average 21 points, 8 assist and 6 rebounds per game. Simmons has a very small sample size also against the Lakers, just 2 games, but is averaging 15 points, 12 assist and 10 rebounds versus them.
Low Tier Option
Chris Paul vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Salary: $6,900 – Needs to score 34.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Now this is where the watch on minutes comes into play for Chris Paul. In his first game back on Sunday, Paul only saw 25 minutes but put up 32.8 fantasy points. He gets a $200 decrease tonight versus the New Orleans Pelicans but will most likely see just 25 minutes again. This isn’t a lock play like DeMarcus Cousins who is in a similar situation but we know what that man can do. With Chris Paul, we just don’t know. There’s really nothing we can base his game off of either since it has just been one game but he does get to face the New Orleans Pelicans who allow opposing point guards to average 23 points, 8 assist and 6 rebounds. This is a very cautious play if you do go this route at the point guard position.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
James Harden vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Salary: $13,600 – Needs to score 68 fantasy points or more to exceed value (88.4 for 6.5x)
With Chris Paul on a minute restriction, it is still hard to fade James Harden but tonight may be the night. Harden did go off for 71.8 fantasy points in Chris Paul’s first game back from injury though. It’s a tough call tonight. Harden is averaging 36 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 40%. He’s currently averaging 63 fantasy points per game and 1.7 fantasy points per minute, just a .08 difference with Russell Westbrook.
James Harden gets to face a New Orleans Pelicans defense that is allowing opposing shooting guards to average 22 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assist per game. Also in the previous five games, Harden has only missed value in two of them but scored 71.8, 97.3, and 78 fantasy points in the ones he did. Harden is coming to that point where it may soon be time to fade him but depends on Chris Paul’s minute restriction also.
Other Top Tier Option
D’Angelo Russell vs. Chicago Bulls
Salary: $8,400 – Needs to score 42 fantasy points or more to exceed value
D’Angelo Russell has been on a tear lately besides the one game versus the New York Knicks as he returned to form last night once again, recording 25 points, 4 assist and 2 rebounds. But on the season, Russell is averaging 19 points, 6 assist and 4 rebounds with a usage rate of 30%. He gets to face the tanking Chicago Bulls who are allowing opposing shooting guards to average 23 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assist. When the two faced off on the 6th, Russell recorded 28 points, 5 assist and 4 rebounds, scoring 44.5 fantasy points. We should see something very similar to that but D’Angelo Russell does need to get things rolling in the first quarter unlike last night where he waited until late in the second quarter.
Low Tier Option
JJ Reddick vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $5,700 – Needs to score 28.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
With what could be a very noticeable stack of the night, JJ Reddick is in play versus this Los Angeles Lakers team. Reddick is averaging 18 points, 3 assist and 2 rebounds with a usage rate of 22% while averaging 31 minutes per game. Reddick has hit value in four of his last five games also, scoring 33.8, 29, 32.3, and 30 fantasy points. He gets to go up against a defense that is allowing opposing shooting guards to average 25 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assist. Reddick is also averaging 27.5 fantasy points per game and 0.85 fantasy points per minute. Reddick will most likely be one of my top plays tonight due to his price and ceiling which seems to be pretty easy to reach.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Paul George vs. Orlando Magic
Salary: $9,800 – Needs to score 49 fantasy points or more to exceed value (63.7 for 6.5x)
Honestly, Paul George is going on a line-up before anyone else tonight besides Joel Embiid, but we’ll get to that later. George is averaging 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist with a usage rate of 29% while averaging 36 minutes per game. He gets to face a Orlando Magic defense that is allowing opposing small forwards to average 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist though. This will be a tough one for Paul George.
However, PG13 is on a hot streak, exceeding value in four of his past five games, scoring 53.5, 64, 54.8, and 65.8 fantasy points. He’s also averaging 49.3 fantasy points per game and 1.36 fantasy points per minute. But like I stated earlier, the Oklahoma City Thunder have yet to face off with the Orlando Magic so we don’t know what we’ll truly get out of this match-up.
Other Top Tier Option
Jimmy Butler vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $6,900 – Needs to score 34.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
I’ll be naming one more Philadelphia 76ers member after Jimmy Butler but don’t expect all four of these guys to play tonight. Out of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Jimmy Butler, it’s like a game of Russian Roulette and we have no idea who will bite the bullet before lock. But just in case, Butler gets to face a Lakers defense that are allowing small forwards to average 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Butler is also averaging 36.5 fantasy points per game and 1.1 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 23%. But I also don’t want to get you too hyped for this play as we have no clue who will actually start and sit for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Low Tier Option
Kelly Oubre Jr. vs. San Antonio Spurs
Salary: $5,700 – Needs to score 28.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Kelly Oubre Jr. is coming out as one of the few to actually give production for the Phoenix Suns lately. He is averaging 13 points, 4 rebounds, and 1 assist per game with a usage rate of 22%. Oubre Jr. has returned value in three of his past five games, scoring 33, 45.5, and 30.3 fantasy points. He now gets to face a San Antonio Spurs team that is allowing small forwards to average 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. The final plus sign for us is that Kelly Oubre Jr. usually averages around 26 minutes per game but has played 30+ minutes in his last three games. Oubre Jr. has yet to see the San Antonio Spurs as a member of the Phoenix Suns or as a Washington Wizards member, so we’ll have to wait to see how it goes.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Blake Griffin vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Salary: $9,300 – Needs to score 46.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (60.45 for 6.5x)
Blake Griffin gets to have a pretty solid match-up tonight versus the Milwaukee Bucks and could beat out Paul George for the lock spot. He’s currently averaging 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assist with a usage rate of 30%. The Milwaukee Bucks are allowing power forwards to average 21 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game also. In the previous match-up on January 1st, Griffin recorded 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assist, scoring 49.3 fantasy points.
Griffin is also averaging 46.9 fantasy points per game and 1.3 fantasy points per minute. He has also returned value in four of the past five games, scoring 50.3, 62.3, 54, and 61.8 fantasy points. Griffin has a pretty solid match-up tonight and still has a low price for a ceiling that he can easily reach.
Other Top Tier Option
Aaron Gordon vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary: $6,700 – Needs to score 33.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
It used to be hard to pinpoint Aaron Gordan but he has been ramping it up lately. He has had two 40+ fantasy point games back to back, plus returned value in three of his last five games. He’s averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist with a usage rate of 21%. Gordon is averaging 33.6 fantasy points per game and 1 fantasy points per minute. He gets to face the Oklahoma City Thunder who are allowing power forwards to average 21 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. If Aaron Gordon stays on course then he has a very low ceiling to reach tonight that could be easily attainable.
Low Tier Option
Josh Jackson vs. San Antonio Spurs
Salary: $5,300 – Needs to score 26.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Besides Kelly Oubre Jr., Josh Jackson is probably the only other Phoenix Suns player that I’ll use. Jackson is averaging 10 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assist with a usage rate of 24%. In his previous five games, Jackson has returned value in four of those, scoring 25.3, 52, 29.3, and 25.5 fantasy points. He gets to face a San Antonio Spurs team that is allowing power forwards to average 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. This is a play that I’ll be using as a last resort due to have better and also cheap options that are flexible between the small forward and power forward position.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Joel Embiid vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $10,200 – Needs to score 51 fantasy points or more to exceed value (66.3 for 6.5x)
Joel Embiid is the lock play for tonight before anyone else as he gets to face a very weak Los Angeles Lakers team plus he isn’t that expense when looking at this match-up. Embiid is currently averaging 27 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 assist with a usage rate of 32% while averaging 33 minutes per game. He has also returned value in his past five games, scoring 55.3, 58.3, 21, 63, and 64.3 fantasy points. Embiid is averaging 54.5 fantasy points per game and 1.65 fantasy points per minute.
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This is where the stats get amazing as Joel Embiid is averaging 31 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assist against the Los Angeles Lakers but it’s just out of 3 games. In the past two games, Embiid averaged 39 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assist in the past two games versus them. I stole that from Thunder Dan by the way. With just a price of $10,200, this is a really good spot for Joel Embiid and you can still easily build around him.
Other Top Tier Option
Kenneth Faried vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Salary: $6,300 – Needs to score 31.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Kenneth Faried has fit in pretty well with the Houston Rockets since joining them on January 21st. He has scored 20, 33.5, 44, and 36.5 fantasy points since then. He is also averaging 7 points and 5 rebounds on the season but now has a usage rate of 19%. He has played over 35 minutes in the past two games also and should see majority of the work with Clint Capela out plus the Pelicans are without Anthony Davis due to injury and possible trade soon. Since joining the Rockets, Faried is averaging 30 minutes per game and 33.5 fantasy points per game plus 1.1 fantasy point per minute. The Pelicans are allowing center to average 22 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. which makes this a good spot for Kenneth Faried who shouldn’t be scared of losing minutes to anyone else currently.
Low Tier Option
Jahlil Okafor vs. Houston Rockets
Salary: $6,100 – Needs to score 30.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Staying in the same game but on the opposite side of the court, Jahlil Okafor has stepped up majorly for the New Orleans Pelicans and in place of Anthony Davis. Since taking over at the center position, Okafor has scored 40, 40.5, 27.5 and 52.3 fantasy points. He’s averaging 31 minutes per game, 40 fantasy points per game and 1.29 fantasy points per minute. Him and Kenneth Faried are very similar since taking over for their teams so you could go either way here and most likely get the same outcome of them exceeding their values. Okafor may have the upper hand as the Houston Rockets are giving up more points in the paint which can be a huge upside for Jahlil Okafor and the New Orleans Pelicans.
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