Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got an interesting Tuesday schedule so let’s find out where we can stay ahead of the number.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is significantly worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are the key to my value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games that move at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Some lines will be better than you see on here from the night before, some the same and some worse. Disregard any play that is significantly off the number listed, has an unexpected injury, or any other factor not known before the day of the game that would negatively impact our play. I am playing these games also and will tweet when I can find anything important.
Sunday, we unfortunately went 0-3 on our plays and we are now 20-15 overall.
Analysis of every game consists of the number I make the game, which I call the raw number, and the associated trends within the game including and especially how the teams are currently playing.
Sometimes you will see a stat saying team X has covered 8/10, then upon examination you see that team lost the last 2 in a row. Stats can be a trap so I filter them out for you.
Having said that, let’s get to our NCAA basketball best bets. I will be going thru these games in time order; if the strength of the play deviates from the standard unit it will be pointed out as the game is discussed. All times Eastern. Here we go:
NCAA Basketball Best Plays To Win – Bulls Roll
Buffalo -12 over Ball State, 7 pm
I like Buffalo to cover the number in this revenge game from their last home game in 2017 when the Bulls lost as a 6 point favorite. Since that game Buffalo has won and covered 2 games with Ball State by a combined 59 points to the line.
Recent play favors the Bulls although most of that is how poorly Ball State is playing. They have lost their last 2 games outright being favorites of 2 1/2 and 9 points. I think Buffalo has enough to win the game and cover, not by a lot but my guess is between 16-20 points.
Virginia -8 over NC State, 7 pm
Virginia opened as a 9 point favorite and has dropped to 8. Any points we can get in that direction to lay Virginia is the way I would like to go in this game.
Virginia is on the run of the ages, having covered at least 10 games in a row including their close loss to Duke. NC State conversely has lost 5/6 to the line, State is not a bad team by any means with a record of 16-4, but Virginia at 18-1 is lights out deserving that record.
I cannot call for a reversal of fortunes here as the underdog is fading to the number while Virginia is soaring. At some point the linesmaker will price the Cavaliers too high, but my raw number is Virginia by 20 and that should be enough to cover for us. Go Cavs.
Kansas -1 over Texas, 7 pm
This call on the Jayhawks may seem a little backwards as Kansas beat Texas at home 15 days ago by only 2 as a 7 point favorite. In addition, Kansas has lost their last 4 to the number.
However, the away team in this series has covered the last 9 games dating back to 2015, and Texas has not been playing well recently either, dropping 6/7 ATS.
My raw number is not convincing standing at Kansas by 5, but this recent away team trend has held up under conditions that could have easily broken down. Let’s ride this trend and take the away team as long as we are not laying more than 1 point. We may even get Kansas at plus money by the time you read this.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets – Another Team Series Trend
St Joseph’s +11 over Dayton, 8 pm
Here’s another one that in some ways makes no sense. St Joe is playing poorly on the road, losing 3/4 to the line, one of them losing 73 – 47 as a 1 point dog.
However the series between these 2 teams has been one-sided, with St Joe covering 8 in a row and 12/13. Twelve days ago St Joe beat Dayton at home by 16. I just can’t believe the home field advantage, now with Dayton, will flip the score that much.
The reason Dayton is so high of a favorite is the power rankings number, which covers all teams and is accurate in that respect showing Dayton as a 12 point favorite. However the way St Joe’s has been playing Dayton is nowhere close to the power rankings.
Both teams have dropped 7 of the last 10 games to the number overall, so nothing special there. I will again stick with the team trend and go with the away dog.
Wisconsin +2 over Nebraska, 8 pm
Nebraska has covered the last 4 in the series, but this is their 1st meeting this season and these 2 teams are going in opposite directions.
Wisconsin has won and covered their last 3 while Nebraska has dropped 5/6 to the line. More importantly is the injury to Nebraska’s starting forward Isaac Copeland, who is out for the season having posted 14 points and 5 rebounds per game.
This injury happened in the 2nd half against Ohio State 3 days ago, and that game saw Nebraska lose by 12 as a 7 point favorite. My raw number is Wisky by 3 1/2 which equates to about a pick game in Nebraska, so the posted number in my opinion has not factored in the severity of this injury loss.
Let’s try the Badgers here and see if their advantages hold up. The opening line was pick and now we are getting +2.
Michigan -10 over Ohio State, 9 pm
Ohio State had been on a serious ATS losing skid, 6 in a row and 8/9, before their upset victory at Nebraska. That was the game, however, where Nebraska’s starting forward was injured and their game flow was disrupted.
Copeland only played 15 minutes where most starters on Nebraska play about 32, and Ohio State was able to capitalize and win. However I don’t think Ohio State has turned the corner yet so I am betting that Michigan earns a cover.
My raw number is 11 without home field advantage; while that is not a dramatic value number wise, I believe it will be enough to cover.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Wildcats Get The Nod
Kentucky -9 over Vanderbilt, 9 pm
I am looking at a combination of factors adding up to a Kentucky cover. The number I make the game is Kentucky by 15, and that is after adjusting for Vanderbilt’s home court advantage.
Recent ATS play is on the side of Kentucky – they have covered their last 4 in a row while Vandy has stumbled to a 3-7 ATS run in the last 10 games.
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Kentucky has played well on the road taking ATS money in 4/5 away games, and winning with good margin. In the 4 most recent road games they won, they have covered the number by an average of over 10 points a game.
Vanderbilt has fared very well in the series, winning 5/6 from Kentucky, but that lone Vandy loss came in the last home game for them as a favorite. Let’s try Kentucky.
Valparaiso +3 over Missouri State, 8 pm
This game is out of time order because this just became a play. This game opened as a pick but has been steamed to Missouri 3, and I am inclined to fade this move and take the value in the home dog.
My number adjusted for home field is Missouri by 1, but 3 weeks ago Valparaiso won as a 5 point dog at Missouri 82 – 66, and this move above the made number is enough for me to try the dog.
Boise State -1 over Colorado State, 9 pm
Colorado State has actually been playing very well ATS recently having covered the last 6 of 7. Conversely Boise has taken the last 3 in the series and has taken 5 of 7 ATS.
The difference for me in this game is simply that I make the number higher than the linesmakers who are over-compensating for Colorado State’s recent good play. I make Boise 8 on a neutral court which would make them a roughly 5 point favorite on the road.
That fact coupled with Boise controlling the series has me laying the 1 on the road.