DraftKings NBA Picks January 30: Lock in Jokic and go from there

BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 2: Cedi Osman #16 of the Cleveland Cavaliers reaches for a loose ball during the preseason game against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on October 2, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 30: Lock in Jokic and go from there

We have another strong eight games for our DraftKings NBA slate. Kyrie and Anthony Davis are both out, so that only leaves two players out there priced over $9,000. One has a great matchup. The other…..not so much. Is this the day for a balanced build? Let’s take a look!

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kemba Walker ($8,200): Walker has actually fared well against Boston this year, putting up 96.25 DraftKinsg points in the first two matchups. Now Walker wont have to deal with Kyrie tonight either. The Celtics could move Smart over to guard him. If that ends up happening, I think I would rather attack this with Lamb. If Rozier is on Walker, Kemba could be in for another nice game.

Mike Conley ($8,000): Conley has three straight games with more than 40 DraftKings points. This isn’t a great matchup with Minnesota on paper, but with Teague out, it looks much better for Conley. This game should stay close, and I don’t really think Rose or Bayless can guard him. Conley looks like a solid play here once again.

De’Aaron Fox ($7,700): Fox had the best game of his young career against the Hawks the first time around, posting a triple double and 72.5 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. That probably wont happen again, but there is no reason that Fox can’t hit at least 5x value with ease. Young’s offense is improving, but his defense has never been all that good. Fox could be the highest scorer at the point tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Trae Young ($7,400): Young had a solid 30.25 DraftKings points against the Kings the first time around, but he has had a very nice west coast swing so far. Against the Clippers and Blazers, Young has a combined 91.5 DraftKings points. Young doesn’t have quite the upside that Fox does, but he should blow past 5x value as well.

Darren Collison ($6,200): Collison has put up some nice numbers with Oladipo out. That should continue here. In two games with Washington so far this year, Collison has 70.75 DraftKings points. Satoransky is a little better defender than Wall, but not enough to handle Collison with the way he is playing since Oladipo is out. Don’t fall for the Satoransky trap against Indiana tonight. Use his opponent instead.

Terry Rozier ($6,100): There are so many good options at point guard tonight that I wouldn’t fall over myself trying to get Rozier in there. I honestly like Collison more for about the same price, but I can see using both here. Rozier, who is usually hit and miss with Kyrie out, has been outstanding this time around. This is a good matchup with Charlotte, so I don’t think we should totally ignore him either.

Dark Horses:

Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,700): Smith has 92.5 DraftKings points in his three games back, so he seems fairly priced here, especially against the Knicks. This is about where Smith is going to be production wise from now on with Doncic running the show. However, that still puts us right about at 5.5x value. I can live with that.

Jerryd Bayless ($5,000): Bayless has put up some giant minutes totals lately, and with Minnesota signing Isaiah Canaan to a ten day contract, it seems as though they aren’t all that confident in Teague or Rose coming back anytime soon. Canaan will probably play some, but I still think we get about 35 minutes of Bayless on the cheap. Bayless has at least 32 DraftKings points in each of the four games with Teague and Rose out. Expect more of the same tonight.

Tim Frazier ($3,200): Frazier outperformed Frank Jackson with Payton out last night. That may not mean a move into the starting five, but if Payton is out again, I’m much more likely to throw a dart with Frazier. Don’t get me wrong. Jackson wasn’t bad. Frazier was just better. A lot better.

My pick: Collison(PG), Bayless(G), Frazier(SG)

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 09: Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans looks on against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Smoothie King Center on January 09, 2019 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jrue Holiday ($8,900): Holiday is the Pelicans offense right now. Davis, Mirotic, and even Elfrid Payton may be sidelined for this one as well. This game has to have massive potential for a blowout with the Pelicans beat up and on the back end of a back to back set against a good Denver team. I’m tempted to just leave this whole game alone because of that, but Holiday could still put up pretty good numbers as he tries to keep this close.

Bradley Beal ($8,700): Beal is still the heart of the offense, and he’s going to have to show it here. Beal put up 47.5 DraftKings points last night, his fourth straight game with more than 42, on a night where Satoransky struggled. That is likely going to happen again with Collison on Satoransky. I expect a strong game from Beal here again.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,400): Portland has contained Mitchell pretty well in the prior three meetings this season. That doesn’t mean a whole lot right now. Mitchell’s shot is starting to fall, and his production is up across the board. Rubio’s return hasn’t halted Mitchell’s production either. This looks like a nice matchup and a nice price for Mitchell, especially since there is a lack of elite options on this slate.

Honorable Mention:

Buddy Hield ($7,200): Hield put up a whopping 49.25 DraftKinsg points on the Hawks in one of the better all around games of his career in the first meeting. Hield has more or less cooled down after a scorching start to 2019, but I could see him putting up some huge numbers against the Hawks again. Remember that Fox put up a triple double in that first meeting and Hield still had a game like that. It’s looking like he will be worth the price here.

Zach LaVine ($7,100): LaVine has 79.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Heat so far this year. His numbers are finally stabilizing again, but his upside seems to be capped with Dunn on the floor. However, LaVine’s floor seems to be higher. He has at least 32 DraftKings points in eight of the last 11 games. That’s a decent return tonight with some upside against the Heat. The Heat shut Dunn down the first time they saw him. That looks good for LaVine as well.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,000): I’ve been off of THJ for a while. I think I still have char marks from the last time he burned me, which has been frequently this year. THJ has 77.5 DraftKings points over the last two games, so he’s begging us to use him again. I can’t really trust any Knicks guard right now. Burke has been below average. Trier is losing minutes (again). Ntilikina is much better in real life than in stat sheets. That leaves a lot of things for THJ to pick up. Will he continue to do so?

Dark Horses:

Marcus Smart ($5,200): Smart played 33 minutes against the Nets with Kyrie out on Monday an put up an impressive 49 DraftKings points. Smart did a little bit of everything. He’s probably not going to get five steals and two blocks again, but he is perfectly capable of scoring 21 points again. The assists are also sustainable with Irving out. There is pretty good potential for Smart here.

Aaron Holiday ($3,600): Holiday put up 21.5 DraftKings points against the Warriors on Monday, but was it just a product of the blowout? The guard minutes haven’t really been defined yet for the Pacers, but Holiday has played 38 minutes over the two games with Oladipo out. He is a solid punt option right now unless something changes.

Wayne Ellington ($3,500): Ellington picked up 22.25 DraftKings points on Monday starting for Tyler Johnson. If Johnson is out again, expect another big workload for Ellington. Waiters is the higher upside option if Johnson sits, but Ellington is going to start at a very low price. 6x value is likely with 7x possible. Where else can you get that?

My pick: N/A

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 13: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks handles the ball during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on December 13, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the Mavericks 99-89. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Luka Doncic ($8,800): Doncic has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. All of those games have been with Dennis Smith in the lineup. Smith isn’t stunting Doncic’s production, and Smith is actually putting up good numbers of his own. This is a very good matchup against the Knicks, who remain one of the most lost franchises in all of sports. Doncic has two triple doubles in the last four games. If this game stays close, he could flirt with another one.

Will Barton ($6,800): I honestly find it hard to trust any Denver guard with Murray out. The minutes have been scattered among Harris, Morris, Beasley, and Craig to name a few. The only thing that is constant is Barton’s minutes and Jokic going bonkers. If you must use a Denver guard, Barton is the only one that’s guaranteed to hit 30 DraftKings points. Everything else is a crapshoot.

Honorable Mention:

Joe Ingles ($5,600): Ingles has averaged 26.7 DraftKings points per game in the previous three games against Portland this year. Portland is still struggling with small forwards. That number isn’t quite the smash spot we went to see Ingles in at this price, but Ingles has been much better with Rubio back. He is much better when he can just look for his shot.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,500): Collison has taken on more of the load this time around with Oladipo sidelined, but Bojan has still seen a nice offensive uptick without his price increasing much. The Wizards defense isn’t scaring anyone. This is another solid spot for Bogdanovic. Well, both of them actually. Bogdan is playing the Hawks, a team that he missed out on the first time around. Hield and Fox torched them though. Expect Bogdan to get in on the fun tonight.

Kevin Knox ($5,200): Well, hello minutes! Kevin Knox has missed you! Knox has been able to do quite a bit when the Knicks give him run, but this team is so obsessed with ping pong balls that they bench anyone who plays well and alienates anyone talented enough to play on another team. I sincerely hope there is a special place in basketball hell for the Knicks and their asinine rotations. If Knox starts, he’s worth using. That’s a big if with this team though.

Dark Horses:

Darius Miller ($3,800): Yeah, the Pelicans may get blown out, but they have very few healthy bodies to throw out there. Guys like Miller and Solomon Hill are going to have to play 30+ minutes regardless of the score. Miller has 86.5 DraftKings points over the last three games, all starts. So long as the Pelicans are beaten up, Miller is a strong play.

Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,600): DFS has actually been a strong play in DFS lately. Finney-Smith has at least 22 DraftKings points in four of the last five games. DFS is a pretty well kept secret right now. Use him if you need salary relief.

My pick: Doncic(SF), DFS(F)

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JANUARY 09: Bojan Bogdanovic #44 of the Indiana Pacers takes a shot against Al Horford #42 of the Boston Celtics during the first half of the game at TD Garden on January 09, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

John Collins ($7,900): People pay for Collins pretty much based on upside only. He has only hit value for this price tag once in the last eight games. Still, Collins has not been under 30 DraftKings points in that span either. I will pay the price here against the Kings. Their front is weak enough for Collins to rock a 50.

Al Horford ($7,000): Horford has three straight games with more than 40 DraftKings pionts. A big part of that is the block party the Horford has hosted over the last week. Horford has 11 blocks over the last three games. He has been a double double machine lately, and should have a field day against the Charlotte front as well.

Honorable Mention:

Lauri Markkanen ($6,700): Markkanen put up 38.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Heat. The minutes are going to be there. The production should be too. Markkanen has put up 95 DraftKings points over the last two games. This looks like another big time spot for Markkanen tonight. I can’t believe he is still this cheap! Enjoy it while you can!

Thaddeus Young ($5,600): The Wizards are being dismantled on the inside lately. I’m tempted to just play the whole Indiana frontcourt and be done with it. You can’t always trust Sabonis and Turner, but you can trust Young is going to rack up 30 on the Wizards. He’s done it twice already. This time it could be even more.

Marvin Bagley ($5,400): This Kings-Hawks game is a really good place to attack frontcourts. Neither one of them are very good. Bagley’s minutes have fluctuated an awful lot lately, so he’s pretty hard to run with. The Kings rotations are sometimes as frustrating as the Knicks.

Dark Horses:

Jabari Parker ($4,100): Parker was given a little more run last night with the injury to Hutchison and the ineffectiveness of Seldon in his stead. Parker responded by exploding on the Nets for 45.75 DraftKings points in just 23 minutes. I would hope that the Bulls would start Parker after that performance. Even if they don’t, he might still be worth using.

Mario Hezonja ($3,500): Hezonja is limited offensively and obviously isn’t going to be a big part of the team moving forward, so yeah, let’s play him. It makes no sense to me, but so long as the Knicks are going to coach like this, there is some DFS value to be had here. Hezonja has 45.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. That’s a good return on your investment.

My pick: Markkanen(PF)

DENVER, CO – NOVEMBER 23: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets plays the Orlando Magic at the Pepsi Center on November 23, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,900): Jokic has 98.25 DraftKings points in the two games against the Pelicans. New Orleans just had to run overtime against Houston last night while short handed. Will they be gassed for this one? That’s the only thing that makes me nervous about Jokic. Still, even if Jokic only plays 30 minutes, he may hit 60 DraftKings points against the Pelicans without Davis and Randle.

Jusuf Nurkic ($8,300): Nurkic has subpar overall numbers against Utah, but he just put up 54 DraftKings points on the Jazz just nine days ago. I’ll put more stock into that appearance. Nurkic looks like a solid play if you are afraid of a Nuggets blowout in New Orleans.

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Honorable Mention:

Hassan Whiteside ($7,500): Whiteside has 71.5 DraftKings points in just 46 minutes against the Bulls this year. Forget about court time. Whiteside is going to smash the Bulls even if he does only play half the game.

Myles Turner ($6,900): Turner has ravaged the Wizards for 104.75 DraftKings points in two games this year. The Wizards are even more undersized without D12 up front. I don’t usually trust Turner, but I can make an exception here. It could prove to be lucrative.

Dark Horses:

Bobby Portis ($5,900): Portis racked up 33.5 DraftKings points against the Heat the first time around. The problem here is that the Bulls are still starting Robin Lopez. Portis has lower upside, and he doesn’t always hit value at this price when he doesn’t start. Check the starting lineup before rolling with Portis.

Dewayne Dedmon ($5,600): Dedmon has at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight and five of the last six. The Kings are pretty bad up front. Only the Nets and Suns are worse. Dedmon should be well worth the price tonight.

My pick: Jokic(C), Dedmon(UTIL)

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