EPL DFS Breakdown – Wednesday 1/30/19

The Midwest is absolutely frozen, however the EPL DFS Breakdown yesterday was just warm enough to get people cashing in double ups.  This was largely due to my three favorite plays (Aubameyang 43.6 FDP, Pogba 39.9 FDP, and Mitrovic 59.6 FDP) all playing really well.  Let’s continue that success on Wednesday!  Wednesday is a smaller slate; only four games.  However, there will still be plenty of fun action with the other three of the big six in action. 

Liverpool is by far the biggest favorite at home against Leicester City and the over/under for total goals in that game is 3.0.  There should be no shortage of goals on this slate because the three other games (Watford @ Tottenham, Chelsea @ Bournemouth, and Crystal Palace @ Southampton) all have over/unders of 2.5.

The biggest injury news on the slate continues to be in London with Tottenham.  Harry Kane and Dele Alli are still out meaning Fernando Llorente will likely draw another start.  Tottenham could have Son back in the lineup as he returns from international duty, but even he said he would benefit from some rest.  You can see what manager Mauricio Pochettino had to say about it here:

Something else to note is that Bournemouth will likely be without forward Callum Wilson due to injury, and with new signing Dominic Solanke not quite ready, the load will fall on Joshua King against Chelsea.

That about does it for a slate overview.  Let’s get to the EPL DFS Breakdown.

Target Forwards

Gonzalo Higuain (Chelsea @ Bournemouth, $10,500) – Higuain has already played for Chelsea in the FA Cup, but he will make his EPL debut on Wednesday in a nice matchup against Bournemouth.  Bournemouth have conceded 4th most goals in the league so far for an average of 1.83 per game.  This number is slightly better at home (1.42), but defense has been the thorn in Bournemouth’s side all season and it isn’t going to change now.  Higuain is familiar with Sarri’s tactics and should have had enough time on the training pitch to adjust to his new squad.  Higuain is scoring a goal in about every 213 minutes this season which is decent, and he’s taking about four shots per game.  His price is really affordable on this small slate with the lack of stud forwards.

Value Forwards

Danny Ings (Crystal Palace @ Southampton, $8,500) – Danny Ings is cheaper now than he was a few weeks ago, and he gets a plus matchup on Wednesday.  Crystal Palace are giving up an average of 1.75 goals per game on the road.  He hasn’t scored since before Christmas, but he was banged up for a large part of that.  He’s going to find the net sooner or later, and this is a solid matchup for him to do so.

Joshua King (Chelsea @ Bournemouth, $8,500) – After a rough month of December, King has been better in his three EPL games since the calendar turned to 2019.  He’s averaging just under 20 FDP in those three games which includes a goal and five shots on goal.  Chelsea’s defense hasn’t allowed many goals, but they also are not a stone wall.  If Callum Wilson ($9,500) is indeed out, King should have increased opportunities.  He’s a riskier GPP punt than Ings, but he’ll likely have lower ownership if that is something you value.

Target Midfielders

Mo Salah (Leicester City @ Liverpool, $13,500) – There’s usually one stud to lock in on smaller slates, and that looks like Salah on Wednesday.  He’s priced way up on this slate, but in a tasty matchup, fading him might just be the last thing you do (i.e. no Salah, no cash if he goes off).  He’s coming in with six goals in his last six EPL games, and he should at least continue that one-game-one-goal streak on Wednesday.  If you do choose to fade him, Sadio Mane ($11,000) is the other top Liverpool midfielder that you’re going to want exposure to.  Salah fade or not, Xherdan Shaqiri ($7,500) is good value exposure to Liverpool if he starts.

Eden Hazard (Chelsea @ Bournemouth, $10,000) – Hazard has been really good this season, but he’s stumbled a bit lately from a fantasy perspective.  This is a result of the formation and strategy Chelsea have been playing with him as the “striker.”  If Higuain does not start on Wednesday, Hazard is a full fade for me.  However, if Higuain starts and Hazard can get back to his natural position, I’ll have some GPP interest.  Willian ($8,500) has been playing better recently and has some GPP-only appeal on this slate.  If Sarri actually decides to give Callum Hudson-Odoi ($5,000) a look in the Premier League, he’ll be tremendous value.  The much sought-after winger scored a goal and added six crosses in Chelsea’s FA Cup game this weekend.

Son Heung-Min (Watford @ Tottenham, $9,000) – The list of elite midfielder plays continues with Son on his return to the EPL.  Without Kane and Alli, Son will be left to do some heavy lifting in the attack.  During the whole time Harry Kane has been hurt, Son was off at the Asian Cup, so we don’t have any stats to go off when looking at how he’s been playing in Kane’s absence.  He was red hot, though, in December and January with seven goals in seven EPL games.  He said he was disappointed with South Korea’s exit from the Asian Cup, so I expect him to come ready to right the ship with his club team on Wednesday.

Value Midfielders

Luka Milivojevic (Crystal Palace @ Southampton, $7,500) – Last year, Milivojevic was one of my favorite cash midfielders week-to-week, but that was under the old scoring system.  The scoring change hasn’t been good to him, and it shows.  However, he’s averaging 26.4 FDP over his last three EPL games (3.5x).  This week, he’ll face a Southampton team that can’t contain any attack.  He should gather enough peripherals to hit value and a penalty kick goal from him would be icing on the top.

Georges-Kevin Nkoudou (Watford @ Tottenham, $5,500) – There isn’t really much to go on here besides price.  The 23-year-old Frenchman has only played four minutes in the EPL this season, but he did create an assist in those minutes.  He also started last Sunday against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup where he did have three shots (two on goal) and four crosses among other peripheral stats.  He only needs 16.5 FDP to reach value, which is very attainable given he starts.

Target Defenders

Ricardo Pereira (Leicester City @ Liverpool, $6,000) – No defender is as hot as Pereira right now.  He has six straight 21+ FDP games; as a defender that’s unreal consistency.  Liverpool on the road is going to be a tough matchup for him.  But you won’t find consistent upside like this this cheap from any other defender.  I probably would not prioritize him given the matchup, but if I had the money, I would play him.

Jan Bednarek (Crystal Palace @ Southampton, $5,500) – After three games, FanDuel finally has Bednarek priced where he should be.  He’s been a defensive hound in his last two EPL games with double digit clearances in both games.  Over his last nine EPL appearances going all the way back to October, Bednarek is averaging 18.5 FDP which is 3.4x value at his current price.  There isn’t any reason Bednarek will slow down now.  He’s a top mid-tier defender.  Fellow defender Jannik Vestergaard ($5,000) has been playing well too.

Value Defenders

Aaron Wan-Bissaka (Crystal Palace @ Southampton, $5,000) – Not long ago, AWB was $1,500 more expensive.  However, over his last seven EPL games he is averaging 15.7 FDP, still over the 3x mark.  We’ve seen big upside from Wan-Bissaka this season including 34.5 and 29.8 FDP games.  Ownership will likely be low, making him a valuable GPP play with his good floor and potential upside.

Christian Kabasele (Watford @ Tottenham, $4,500) – Kabasele had been out for nearly a month after he ran his spine straight into the goalpost on Boxing Day.  He returned on 1/19 with a 21.9 FDP game.  Over 1/3 of Kabasele’s EPL starts this season have resulted in 20+ FDP games, which includes a 26 FDP game in his first game against Tottenham.  If he can repeat that performance, he’ll be just under 6x value.  There aren’t a ton of great value defenders, but Kabasele should at the very least help you save salary.

Also like: Joel Matip ($4,500)

Goalkeepers

Alisson (Leicester City @ Liverpool, $6,500) – There are not a lot of enticing GK options on this slate.  On paper, Alisson is almost certain to the get the win bonus and has a good chance at the clean sheet bonus.  Liverpool rarely gave up a goal at home in the first half of the season but have sputtered slightly as of late.  However, Alisson remains the safest GK on the slate.

Kepa Arizzabalaga (Chelsea @ Bournemouth, $5,500) – Chelsea are giving up an average of 0.83 goals per game this season, and that number jumps barely to 0.91 on the road.  Yes, Bournemouth have been a solid goal-scoring team this season, but they will likely be without their number one striker.  They are good enough to challenge Kepa with shots, and IF he can keep a clean sheet there is big upside for him on Wednesday.

Thanks for reading my EPL DFS Breakdown!  I will be available to answer questions and to provide information up until lock on Twitter tomorrow @vdray5.